powderfreak Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS probability over 3 is highest for you You’re on it Ginxy... I’m rusty. Should be looking at ensembles right now instead of deterministic. Probability of 3”+ on EPS: Woodstock, CT around the same as here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The GFS is going to be total trash this winter...won't even be worth looking at or posting about. Unfortunately, the GFS is going to cause the social media world to go nuts. No point in looking...you’ll sleep much better during stressful tracking times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lock it in. NWS has rain until 2am, then snow. Only a 40% chance. I'll take some snowflakes before my birthday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Lol. Wunderground forecast for me for Thurs night and Friday are 1-3”/1-3” let the games begin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Lol. Wunderground forecast for me for Thurs night and Friday are 1-3”/1-3” let the games begin 1k comes in handy during marginal early and late season events. If the track cooperates you should do pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Well unless there's a good block. In those cases, you can rule out scenarios like ORH to TOL raining. But this is fast flow with southern stream interaction being a key piece...even if not a full phase....but the system origin is southern stream and then the northern stream sort of takes it over on a euro scenario as a little southern streak ejects across Oklahoma and Arkansas and the northern stream gobbles it up. To get this more north than the euro, two things can do it: 1. Northern stream digs even further southwest 2. Southern stream ejects a lot more energy quicker. Or some combo of the two. Think your post will be the theme for a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: 1k comes in handy during marginal early and late season events. If the track cooperates you should do pretty well. Same here on the coast. Unlikely but fun to see. I’ll miss whatever falls anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: 1k comes in handy during marginal early and late season events. If the track cooperates you should do pretty well. If it happens it happens. Sure beats humidity and drought and temp posts. Early season events don’t excite me too much unless they are warning events. But good to practice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 34 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Lol. Wunderground forecast for me for Thurs night and Friday are 1-3”/1-3” let the games begin It's giving me a righteous 2.3 and 1.7. Wunderclown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No point in looking...you’ll sleep much better during stressful tracking times. With all the snow events which have occurred within the CONUS since the September snows in MT the GFS has gone completely overboard with totals...on a widespread scale. People are going to start freaking out when the GFS is showing 15-20'' of snow at D12...on a weak little wave along a front...then when it doesn't verify all the bust posts get to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 hours ago, dendrite said: I was about to pull the trigger on Maue’s site, but this may make me hold off for a bit. What are you going with, Eurowx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What are you going with, Eurowx? Pivotalweather has free euro qpf for now...only 00/12z though and 6hrly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pivotalweather has free euro qpf for now...only 00/12z though and 6hrly. I'm torn between wxbell and eurowx...may do both bc eurowx snowmaps are more accurate, but wxbell better everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Anyone have any info on the 18z euro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 27 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Anyone have any info on the 18z euro? Only goes out to 90 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 39 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Anyone have any info on the 18z euro? Big difference from the 12z run at the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm torn between wxbell and eurowx...may do both bc eurowx snowmaps are more accurate, but wxbell better everything else. Free https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019110312&fh=150&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_city_bos&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Big difference from the 12z run at the same time. I'm okay with my 40% probability. Hopefully we'll see some good trends overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 These run to run changes are crazy.. ICON at 96 has some light rn/sn mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: These run to run changes are crazy.. ICON at 96 has some light rn/sn mix Not really crazy. D4 op runs man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Free https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019110312&fh=150&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_city_bos&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full May just do eurowx, then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not really crazy. D4 op runs man. 2 to 4 on the ICON.. would lock that in a second! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Based on hour 72 GFS should be closer this run.. but not sure it will be enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Be interesting to see in the gfs makes a move. The 18z ensemble mean was well north of the op run. See if it makes a correction this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: Be interesting to see in the gfs makes a move. The 18z ensemble mean was well north of the op run. See if it makes a correction this run. Still crap but closer to some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 ICON about 4+ CMC 4-7 GFS will get a clue Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 CMC looks like it would be a decent event Looks wet at the start for some though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm torn between wxbell and eurowx...may do both bc eurowx snowmaps are more accurate, but wxbell better everything else. Why not Weathermodels.com? That's where Maue went to and it appears to have much better maps than wxbell. Last time i logged into weatherbell late last season they were transfering over to the new graphical interface and it was absolutely horrid with many parameters completely gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Euro with some solid warning snows for interior SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Think its coming!! We snow. And BTW the whole EURO run was epic for October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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