ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Fast flow, N stream dependent...I bet a congrats Atlantic City is more likely than congrats Mt. Mansfield. Could honestly end up anywhere in a 300-500 mile wide band. It's an unmanned firehose look. But I agree the fast flow and limited time for amplification will make it tough to get too far north. But if that southern stream ejects a bit stronger, you could end up with a congrats Montreal and powderfreak easily. But the models are where you want them to be right now...either SNE hit or too suppressed. THat can still change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When Will posts like that. Know it’s real deal Snow between our birthdays, we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Free Euro snow maps https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019110312&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Wonder how pivotal (I think Brettjrob is still there?) is pulling off the free euro qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wonder how pivotal (I think Brettjrob is still there?) is pulling off the free euro qpf? It's great to see for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I know Will and Chris were talking about it, but that run is pure nrn stream. I suppose maybe srn stream helps loosen up heights down in the south for it to dig, but that’s mostly nrn stream. Given ENSO, I would expect mainly n stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 33 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wonder how pivotal (I think Brettjrob is still there?) is pulling off the free euro qpf? It looks like ECMWF lowered licensing fees recently. Pivotal would also appear to be heading towards a subscription-based service based on some recent changes to the site. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Stubborn oaks have barely dropped. Yeah I'd say 2/5 oak trees are still hanging on up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 One nice thing about this is that there is a bit of a scooter streak preceding this s/w, north of Maine. That helps to press the cold south. There is the unmanned firehose aspect...but it doesn't seem like a system digging towards the Gulf and the latent heat machine takes over and helps lift this into CT. I don't expect much this time of year, I'd be happy with rain ending as a coating of paste. It's refreshing to even entertain this type of system this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Man pivotal.....they have a nice zoomed in sector for BOS. Can tell there are grid spacing issues as it tries to show mix into 128..but real nice to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Could honestly end up anywhere in a 300-500 mile wide band. It's an unmanned firehose look. But I agree the fast flow and limited time for amplification will make it tough to get too far north. But if that southern stream ejects a bit stronger, you could end up with a congrats Montreal and powderfreak easily. But the models are where you want them to be right now...either SNE hit or too suppressed. THat can still change. Just copy and paste this post all winter, pretty much covers all bases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: This will be a congrats PF before we know it. The superstitions are out in full force. If it can’t get the two streams to interact there’s no way it gets up here. You do have to like it being either at your latitude or south...easier to come north than south seems to be the case in these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The superstitions are out in full force. If it can’t get the two streams to interact there’s no way it gets up here. You do have to like it being either at your latitude or south...easier to come north than south seems to be the case in these? It won’t take much at all to bring more of a taint or cold rain. I half kid, but it’s early season and it won’t take much, that’s all. I don’t have a feeling either way. I’d probably feel good interior and north of pike for now, but it’s early in the game. The gfs refuses to budge. This should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The superstitions are out in full force. If it can’t get the two streams to interact there’s no way it gets up here. You do have to like it being either at your latitude or south...easier to come north than south seems to be the case in these? EPS probability over 3 is highest for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 It won’t take much at all to bring more of a taint or cold rain. I half kid, but it’s early season and it won’t take much, that’s all. I don’t have a feeling either way. I’d probably feel good interior and north of pike for now, but it’s early in the game.Agreed. Could easily take a track that would guarantee snow in Jan and Feb but still be a cold rain in this early in November. Everything really needs to come together just right. We’ll see but expectations of big accumulations should be in check despite what models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Man pivotal.....they have a nice zoomed in sector for BOS. Can tell there are grid spacing issues as it tries to show mix into 128..but real nice to see. I was about to pull the trigger on Maue’s site, but this may make me hold off for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: Yeah I'd say 2/5 oak trees are still hanging on up this way My oaks here are almost completely bare after the last storm. Stick season is fully here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 What's up with the 18z GFS? Meh, meh, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: What's up with the 18z GFS? Meh, meh, meh. Cold bias making it too progressive? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: My oaks here are almost completely bare after the last storm. Stick season is fully here. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 I have bare oaks and some that have green. Variety of species that drives me nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 18z ICON back to a track over se mass. Still some jostling going on with track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Just copy and paste this post all winter, pretty much covers all bases Well unless there's a good block. In those cases, you can rule out scenarios like ORH to TOL raining. But this is fast flow with southern stream interaction being a key piece...even if not a full phase....but the system origin is southern stream and then the northern stream sort of takes it over on a euro scenario as a little southern streak ejects across Oklahoma and Arkansas and the northern stream gobbles it up. To get this more north than the euro, two things can do it: 1. Northern stream digs even further southwest 2. Southern stream ejects a lot more energy quicker. Or some combo of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, Hazey said: 18z ICON back to a track over se mass. Still some jostling going on with track. Congrats, PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 The difference in placement of the high pressure between the Euro and GFS for the end of the week is quite significant. I'm sure that has to have an influence on how things evolve in the Thursday-Friday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Some good gefs members for my and SNE area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Some good gefs members for my and SNE area. Keep us posted on the snowfall in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Whineminster said: Yeah I'd say 2/5 oak trees are still hanging on up this way Wait...what? Stripped bare here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 The GFS is going to be total trash this winter...won't even be worth looking at or posting about. Unfortunately, the GFS is going to cause the social media world to go nuts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 The Weather Underground forecast for Enfield on 11/8 is 37/21 and 1" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: The Weather Underground forecast for Enfield on 11/8 is 37/21 and 1" of snow. Lock it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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