Baroclinic Zone Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thread the needle 2 We thread until mid December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thread the needle 2 I was about to make the same post. I expect we'll see some other gems based on what comes out at 12z. I particularly am looking for the ever-scintillating discussions of the data ingestion of the off-hour runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Let’s be real, It’s always a thread to be honest.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Upstate NY-VT/N NH 18" on that 00z ICON ...wow. 06z was tamer and well... if one is a SNE enthusiast, that might be your better run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Didn't it snow in the south last Nov before we did There has certainly been more than a few years where the mid-Atlantic has gotten snow before SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 There is very little scientific or predictive insight likely to be gained from such considerations - almost none. Last year has zero bearing on this next two weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Thursday night definitely isn't our last chance either.. great November incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Thursday night definitely isn't our last chance either.. great November incoming? I'm inclined to think it could be decent - For me personally, I felt an early loaded winter was possible - more so than background probabilities, year-to-year. When seeing the last month play out where the vagaries of all have wended us into a colder than normal pattern in general, that lends; it seems it might be deeper rooted, and thus more than a mere ephemeral pattern look. That could certainly still happen, and we Indian Summer out there beyond week 2...but I suspect the mode of the hemisphere supports this ( again ) such that it might be less likely; but even if that were to occur, we'd probably be looking at down the barrel of a reloaded pattern circa those extendeds. Of course, what does early loaded really mean... I think of it as sustaining enough BN to get a snow pack ... Heh, as an aside, we could be in a pattern that 20 years ago would do the trick, but it's harder to offset the big CC monster these present years relative to the same looks from say ... 1995 ... So perhaps the definition of an early loaded winter needs to shift a little to be fair. Ha.. meaningless metric but interesting anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Typical models Shows it ,loses it and then brings it back 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 ICON going to be a nice hit based off hr 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 17 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: We go through this every single winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: We hope your naysaying is as accurate as your HHH forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ICON going to be a nice hit based off hr 105 It's very good for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's very good for sne It’s also the ICON. I have little faith in it, despite its pretty depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There is very little scientific or predictive insight likely to be gained from such considerations - almost none. Last year has zero bearing on this next two weeks. Who said it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It’s also the ICON. I have little faith in it, despite its pretty depiction Not to be a douche but ... is this street cred, or empirical scoring based. I'm not expecting much more than the formal in any social media platform regardless of creed, race concept or folly to be blunt; but no one should take that personally either. But, we hear this mantra about model a, b, and c, and I've frankly, just accept it cause 'every thinks it' - I hate that. I've found there are a few certain scenarios where any one of them might do particularly well ... and auto-86ing based on rep is kind of playground bullying in a way. ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Who said it does than what's the purpose of saying in the first place! don't bother - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to be a douche but ... is this street cred, or empirical scoring based. I'm not expecting much more than the formal in any social media platform regardless of creed, race concept or folly to be blunt; but no one should take that personally either. But, we hear this mantra about model a, b, and c, and I've frankly, just accept it cause 'every thinks it' - I hate that. I've found there are a few certain scenarios where any one of them might do particularly well ... and auto-86ing based on rep is kind of playground bullying in a way. ha I will try to dig up scores but in the past my memory of it has been that it does ok on temps but storms tend to get overdone thus far out. I could def be wrong. I don’t recall it scoring any coups in SNE before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I will try to dig up scores but in the past my memory of it has been that it does ok on temps but storms tend to get overdone thus far out. I could def be wrong. I don’t recall it scoring any coups in SNE before Yeah, I don't have access to any numbers either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Hmmm. Based on these scores, it looks like it does better in longer range (120 hours) than shorter term (24 hours). Color me surprised https://weather.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 The GFS is a Miss to the South but it made subtle improvements. We need the southern stream wave out ahead of the Artic front coming in which is what the icon does. The GFS lags the wave but it is faster than the two previous runs let's see what the other guidance does today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 53 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It’s also the ICON. I have little faith in it, despite its pretty depiction Pretty indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 12Z canadian is a benchmark gem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 27 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Hmmm. Based on these scores, it looks like it does better in longer range (120 hours) than shorter term (24 hours). Color me surprised https://weather.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html That's not anomaly correlation...that's RMSE (root mean squared error). The lower the value the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 12Z canadian is a benchmark gem GGEM gone wild.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: than what's the purpose of saying in the first place! don't bother - I was thinking back asswipe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Oh Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Again... there was some sneaky mechanics embedded in that 00z GGEM solution that was blooming some impressive QPF in CT-RI-SE Ma despite the primarily ANA characteristic synoptic evolution. You could tell, it wouldn't take much for this model to torque things up a bit. It's like symbolically this type of solution was in there but being capped before - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Oh Canada. Never mentioned from April to October wonder why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Oh Canada. Nice hit for everyone except coastal regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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