dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Models will bring it back! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 At least mike got his only thread he will start out of the way early this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: she gone Poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Poof Maybe by Sunday? Potential still exists for at least parts of Southern New England to see its first snow around Thursday night into Friday. Less overall agreement in the 00z guidance than prior runs, due mainly to the extent of interaction between northern and southern stream energy around Wednesday night/Thursday. Though the pattern remains favorable for at least some snow, plenty of variance in the guidance renders low predictability of timing, amounts and impact at this point. All told, have better confidence in the cold blast that's coming in for Friday into Saturday, versus the potential for snow around Thursday night - Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Hmm...maybe the goofus wasn’t so goofy after all. Still think this has room to manoeuvre. Comes down to the speed of that northern s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: Models will bring it back! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: she gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: Models will bring it back! Huh? It’s still there. I thought we were all riding the ICON? 12-20” on Friday. Massive early season event on that 00z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 It’s going to be cold next weekend. despite the timing issues, always need to watch systems coming out of the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s going to be cold next weekend. despite the timing issues, always need to watch systems coming out of the south. That's some deep ass early Nov cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That's some deep ass early Nov cold too. We deep ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 No, she not gone Ensemble members still support potential for at least light snows for interior MA/CT and possibly to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 6z ICON would destroy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Typical models Shows it ,loses it and then brings it back 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We deep ass. They don’t call it the Polar Plunge for nothing... go deep or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: They don’t call it the Polar Plunge for nothing... get in there. Get in and stay with deep ass cold. And yes it’s disturbing Sunday morning conversation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Get in and stay with deep ass cold. And yes it’s disturbing Sunday morning conversation. Ha back on topic, in all honesty the GFS is pretty damn impressive as it suppresses it so much it brings a substantial snow to parts of the southern mid-Atlantic. North Carolina and southern Virginia shoveling on Nov 8-9 would be rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Typical models Shows it ,loses it and then brings it back Then loses it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha back on topic, in all honesty the GFS is pretty damn impressive as it suppresses it so much it brings a substantial snow to parts of the southern mid-Atlantic. North Carolina and southern Virginia shoveling on Nov 8-9 would be rare. We might have to send Diane back if that happens. But yeah, it’s fast flow and sheared with cold pressing south, but also ridging pumping up ahead of ejecting s/w in the Plains. So you see how it’s all about timing. We’ll need that s/w in the plains to help phase with some of that s/w energy ejecting out of the Southwest US. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Use ensemble approach and you’ll get your results. Snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 That NAVGEM was significantly more amplified 06z and in fact, implicates a conversion to a windier event as it exits; its bombing in that solution. I thought the 00z GGEM might be attempting to tell us something in that although flatter with the baroclinic featuring, it did put down an impressive slug of QPF from CT-RI-SE zones ..so there's bit of mechanical forcing embedded in its overall ANA-like event that's really trying to overcome that compression canvas. Obviously model reputation and caveat emptor applies in both - contrary the Lords and flies, they're not impossible solutions however. In fact, neither is the Euro. I was careful to point out that the flow is stressed. It's velocity rich and so embedded S/W mechanics are less physically capable of organizing cyclogen... Fast moving WAA patterns with comparatively weaker waves embedded that are en masse moving along very fast are favored. So, the Euro run is hard to go against in that sense. Experimentally I was offering that yesterday's Euro run "might" benefit from this system's presence in the flow due to spacial idiosyncrasy, and that might lend confidence to the Euro impacts here ( even though it was D6 for the OV/NE regions ). Seeing this flatten a little ...heh.. not lending to any experimental thinking, no - However, we should be careful to point out that the system is still identifiable in the flow over the time intervals. It's not like it's "lost" in that sense? This was a narrow "needle thread" to begin with, such that minor variations can really make or break. GFS' never had anything other than a QPF blob tumbling through the south, which actually doesn't offer/take away anything considering that guidance' charm at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Didn't it snow in the south last Nov before we did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Bomb Cyclone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Models will bring it back! Someone's got to come out with the season's first "it'll come back north----they always do". Unless things are missing the other way, then someone needs to post "it'll come back south--they always do". 58 minutes ago, dryslot said: At least mike got his only thread he will start out of the way early this season. LOL--I seldomly start threads. 43 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Huh? It’s still there. I thought we were all riding the ICON? 12-20” on Friday. Massive early season event on that 00z run PIT 2 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 46 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Huh? It’s still there. I thought we were all riding the ICON? 12-20” on Friday. Massive early season event on that 00z run I think your good, plus upslope not seen here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No, she not gone Ensemble members still support potential for at least light snows for interior MA/CT and possibly to the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Lot of cold around and we get a reload around d9-10. There will prob be a couple potential shortwaves to track including the suppressed one next Friday which could easily come back. Fast flow is never easy on guidance. I wouldn't expect a plowable event but the pattern can support one of the timing is there. It is definitely a thread-the-needle setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Lot of cold around and we get a reload around d9-10. There will prob be a couple potential shortwaves to track including the suppressed one next Friday which could easily come back. Fast flow is never easy on guidance. I wouldn't expect a plowable event but the pattern can support one of the timing is there. It is definitely a thread-the-needle setup though. Agreed ... these are " good problems " to have right now. Sort of in deference to the bold, I'm also not convinced the operational GFS is hiding a bigger ordeal out there D8-11 either. There's a amplitude tenor in the operational run, and the time frame in question was so-so HA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I think your good, plus upslope not seen here I may push back sometimes on deep cold anomalies in mid-winter bringing good snows up here (suppression), but deep cold in November almost always seems to play out well in the end. Gonna be an expensive heating bill for November again this year it looks like regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lot of cold around and we get a reload around d9-10. There will prob be a couple potential shortwaves to track including the suppressed one next Friday which could easily come back. Fast flow is never easy on guidance. I wouldn't expect a plowable event but the pattern can support one of the timing is there. It is definitely a thread-the-needle setup though. Thread the needle 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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