dryslot Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 I see pivotal doesn't have the off hr Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro def flatter. I have doubts that this will track into interior SNE like those GFS runs yesterday. Biggest problem actually might be the BL. We don't establish much BL cold before it moves in. Agreed - this seasonal appetizer's limitation is warmth in the BL. For better or worse ... ( usually the latter ) the NAM was beginning to flag problems in that regard yesterday. It may not have the particulars right but, the gist of it corrected a weak but crucial boundary NW. It was supposed to slip through and align ENE along or just S of LI in the runs from a couple days ago when this looked a bit more intriguing for colder solutions. Since, the boundary is now stalling and washing out more along a White Plains to PWM type axis.. .which, ain't going to cut it. Even if the "low"/ANA is flatter, that's still probably not enough. SNE proper gets that cold rain that smells like snow. Which may be the climate course of least regret anyway, as others have noted.. I mean what are folks grousing about... Really, this should be nothing other than grateful we aren't in some dullard extended spirit crushing uninspired boring weather pattern that Novembers are 2nd only to April for sending us through - Hyperbole aside, I still suggest that this could get more amped over these next 30 hours, because as I annotated yesterday ... this is an usual situation where the source for the N/stream is obscure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: I see pivotal doesn't have the off hr Euro runs. Congrats Sunday River Sugarloaf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Agreed - this seasonal appetizer's limitation is warmth in the BL. For better or worse ... ( usually the latter ) the NAM was beginning to flag problems in that regard yesterday. It may not have the particulars right but, the gist of it is/was that a weak but crucial boundary was supposed to slip through and aligns ENE along or just S of LI in the runs from a couple days ago when this looked a bit more intriguing for colder solutions. Since, the boundary is now stalling and washing out more along a White Plains to PWM time axis.. .which, even if the "low"/ANA is flatter, that's still probably not enough. SNE proper gets that cold rain that smells like snow. Which may be climo as others have noted.. I mean what are folks grousing about... Really, this should be nothing other than grateful we aren't in some dullard extended spirit crushing uninspired boring weather pattern that Novembers 2nd only to April - Hyperbole aside, I still suggest that this could get more amped because this is an usual situation where the source for the N/stream is obscure. Yep. The leading shortwave up in Quebec (aka the Scooter streak) that was out ahead of our main player was stronger innthe runs we saw a couple days ago. That established that cold boundary...as you said, probably somewhere south of LI over to south/central NJ and we were seeing the "NJ model" type cyclogenesis on some of these solutions as the wave moved off the coast....since then, our leading shortwave which presses the boundary south has gotten weaker and we're kind of almost straddling the boundary ourselves now or maybe just a touch south. That's not gonna get it done...esp in November. We might get away with it in January when antecedent climo airmasses are much colder but not now. We will definitely want to see a reversal in that trend pretty soon if we're going to entertain the idea of shovelable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats Sunday River Sugarloaf Foothills north and west look to do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Get the snows up north for now...just don’t keep there like last season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 If the NAM is correct it is going to rip across northern New England. There would be a swath of some pretty excellent upward vertical motion and right where the column is supportive for snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: If the NAM is correct it is going to rip across northern New England. There would be a swath of some pretty excellent upward vertical motion and right where the column is supportive for snow too. Upslope city too. 3 K shows the start. Green mountains ski areas could get over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 hours ago, MaineJayhawk said: Peeps throwing in the towel too early? I think so, if they are throwing the towel on measurable...i think the map that I posted last night is still feasible. We have work to do, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Upslope city too. 3 K shows the start. Green mountains ski areas could get over a foot Yeah upslope could be pretty epic on some spots. What could be fun with this is watching the freezing level with dual-pol...it might completely crash going from NW to SE as that front moves through. Still gotta watch out for the NW Hills of CT...wouldn't give up on them too soon. Especially Norfolk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 See I'm also a little concerned about data sparseness and/or less than idealize physical sounding data making it into these initialization's This is the NAM's 12z ... GFS is the same way. This is not a good source/origin for the runs. This may throw a monkey wrench in matters. Suppose it comes in slightly stronger? Then it may roll out some subtle but all-important, lead s/w ridging that enhances the confluence N of the Lakes to southern Ontario just that crucial amount... Will's front ends up back S of LI again, and then we have our NJ Model low idea coming back in short terms. It's possible... but, either way, that S/W origin is ...heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Still plenty of time for shifts either way. 6z EPS probabilities... 3”< GEFS 3”< probs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: See I'm also a little concerned about data sparseness and/or less than idealize physical sounding data making it into these initialization's This is the NAM's 12z ... GFS is the same way. This is not a good source/origin for the runs. This may throw a monkey wrench in matters. Suppose it comes in slightly stronger? Then it may roll out some subtle but all-important, lead s/w ridging that enhances the confluence N of the Lakes to southern Ontario just that crucial amount... Will's front ends up back S of LI again, and then we have our NJ Model low idea coming back in short terms. It's possible... but, either way, that S/W origin is ...heh Geezus that’s North of Alaska, taking quite the steep angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Still plenty of time for shifts either way. 6z EPS probabilities... 3”< GEFS 3”< probs... The most likely shifts will probably be in NNE within the 6” probs due to something more amped or weaker Sat nite l’ll be sipping some vodka in the jacuzzi at Stowe main lodge looking up at a mountain of white , milf in tow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Straight forward event imo. Several inches for the mountains. Less for the elevations. NNE. Flakes to Mass border and berks, some of CT Hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The most likely shifts will probably be in NNE within the 6” probs due to something more amped or weaker Even up here it’s pretty warm to start under 1,500ft.... 33-35F and then crashes second half well into the 20s. Should be a wet snow to frozen slush and winter cold type event. Ends with dry pow lightly blowing off roof tops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Even up here it’s pretty warm to start under 1,500ft.... 33-35F and then crashes second half well into the 20s. Should be a wet snow to frozen slush and winter cold type event. Ends with dry pow lightly blowing off roof tops? Elevation always helps so much more wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Gfs much cooler flatter some sne snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Well Kevin’s fv3 got a lot better for snow here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Still plenty of time for shifts either way. 6z EPS probabilities... 3”< GEFS 3”< probs... Another nice shift south for CT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Well Kevin’s fv3 got a lot better for snow here... Wait 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Weak pos low on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Weak pos low on the gfs Well the model is a weak POS...so they kind of go hand in hand.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 12z GFS is pretty boring but would be a more widespread 1-3” for more people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Virtually going to just be a race between how quickly CAA occurs in the lowest part of the atmosphere. A large portion of the region (outside of coastal areas) probably stand a good chance of seeing at least some flakes as this winds down. Still can't rule out a pretty decent band that extends from ME farther south into SNE. I think NW Hills of CT could see 2-3'' of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 You can use the ICON to wipe up the mess the GFS has left but then you still have the same mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: 12z GFS is pretty boring but would be a more widespread 1-3” for more people. This is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Well Kevin’s fv3 got a lot better for snow here... GFS cold bias giving hope where there is none? If this is true, it is going to wreak havoc this winter in borderline situations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: 12z GFS is pretty boring but would be a more widespread 1-3” for more people. FV3 dammit! Moniker schmoniker 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Virtually going to just be a race between how quickly CAA occurs in the lowest part of the atmosphere. A large portion of the region (outside of coastal areas) probably stand a good chance of seeing at least some flakes as this winds down. Still can't rule out a pretty decent band that extends from ME farther south into SNE. I think NW Hills of CT could see 2-3'' of snow Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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