Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Please everyone refrain from mentioning the GFS. It is absolutely useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Please everyone refrain from mentioning the GFS. It is absolutely useless. Gefs is further north =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Gefs is further north =) IDK what to tell ya Ant. They totally killed it. As bad as it was before there was use knowing its bias. Its so all over the place there is no bias its just wrong, warm, cold , rain, dry and everything else between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: IDK what to tell ya Ant. They totally killed it. As bad as it was before there was use knowing its bias. Its so all over the place there is no bias its just wrong, warm, cold , rain, dry and everything else between. It is still the same gfs model. I dont see any improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: The difference in whether this event ends up being shreaded rad/2"er above a wiper annoyance cold showers, versus a more cohesive cyclogenesis, is going to come down to whether the trough over the Dakotas can start to re-orient its self into more of a neutral tilt by the time the mid levels are nearing the Lakes. If so, we'll have a 998 to 1002 mb type close surface reflection somewhere near SW PA with semblance of a new center itching to implode over S NJ. This could be somewhere in between that, or if the native speed saturation in the flow claims another S/W soldier we'll see instead the southern arc of the trough start to absorb nearing the Lakes as it slopes more positive ...and that lead surface reflection is a blown up ravioli with associated mix and snow shrapnels racing through the OV/NE... Obviously, folks want the former solution. The Euro's not quite into it's wheel house being that this is D5 here... However, in this case we get a cheat insight because the way this thing is situated in the flow means that it IS in the Euro wheel house up there near the Dakotas, where the trough has a bit of a robuster look and that makes for an easier extrapolation. Certainly clearer so than having to wait for the governing mechanics to at last over B.C. So I'm thinking more along the more cohesive ravioli in this case - which, I'm aware that is going to come across as schnitzely, but I can assure you, no buns are necessary. This thing is in the Euro's wheel house over the D's, which in some cases, fast flow ftw! Obviously too early to discuss details Pretty detailed post though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: We need some different rules for November. 2012 had 6"+ in the interior on Nov 7 and it ended up a huge winter. We had other years too with big early/mid Nov snows like 2004, 1987, and 1986 that were good winters too. Maybe "if the storm gives over 8" and it occurs on a Friday and happens within 3 days of the ides of November" then it will be a ratter winter. Didn't November of 1995 have a big snowfall in New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Didn't November of 1995 have a big snowfall in New England? Off the top of my head I recall an event later in the month that seemed to get the ball rolling into winter. It was before sunrise and resulted in school delays/cancellations. I wanna say there was a widespread 2-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Off the top of my head I recall an event later in the month that seemed to get the ball rolling into winter. It was before sunrise and resulted in school delays/cancellations. I wanna say there was a widespread 2-5". I was in sixth grade. I don't think I had a full week of school that winter. It was amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Looks like the system in question was 11/29/95. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1129.php There were a couple of lighter events earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: We need some different rules for November. 2012 had 6"+ in the interior on Nov 7 and it ended up a huge winter. We had other years too with big early/mid Nov snows like 2004, 1987, and 1986 that were good winters too. Maybe "if the storm gives over 8" and it occurs on a Friday and happens within 3 days of the ides of November" then it will be a ratter winter. Early Nov 2004 or 2005 gave us a couple inches in NE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 16 minutes ago, Hoth said: I was in sixth grade. I don't think I had a full week of school that winter. It was amazing. Lots of snow that Winter, snow from November into May. I lived in Queens, NY at that time. NYC broke it's snowfall record that season. I have video of the aftermath of the 1/96 blizzard. I've got to transfer it to digital and post it on YouTube. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like the system in question was 11/29/95. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1129.php There were a couple of lighter events earlier in the month. Rain to snow. Many areas 2-5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 I am not impressed, snow in SE MA is rare this time of the year given that NE winds off an ocean in the lower 50s and upper 50s near ACK and CHH. I am never expecting snow this early here on the Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 45 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Didn't November of 1995 have a big snowfall in New England? I was making that comp in my mind earlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: For little it's worth the ICON came in impressive at 120 hours compared to prior run It’s a good sign when Tip is interested enough to even look at the ICON on a day 6 threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Always nice to see ski season references in the AFD. BTV knows even if it doesn’t snow we can all enjoy some good snowmaking. From NWS BTV.... "There is disagreement on how to handle this feature beyond Thursday. The GFS keeps the fledgling system weak and shunted to the south due to strong high pressure building in the Northern Plains. This prevents it from interacting with a northern stream ... The CMC/EC depicts a stronger system, and the northern stream shortwave is slow enough to support additional development... The North Country would be placed in the northern fringes of the low`s precipitation shield, and we would be looking at widespread light snow. Timing of shortwave interactions tends to be difficult for medium range forecasts. So this forecast will be refined going forward. If nothing else, the coldest air of the season will follow this system late next week, which should be helpful for snowmaking operations." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not impressed, snow in SE MA is rare. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 This strikes me as a system that will suppress and maybe disappear, then come back a bit in the short range...starting with some NAM run like 36 hours out. Nothing scientific about that. Just tea leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 So after the Euro inside day 5, What other model will we able to weigh with it heading into winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: So after the Euro inside day 5, What other model will we able to weigh with it heading into winter? The Ukie.....or the Icon lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The Ukie.....or the Icon lol? Yup you knew when tip came back giving analysis on the Icon that the GFS is useless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yup you knew when tip came back giving analysis on the Icon that the GFS is useless. Lol exactly my thought too. What a POS that GFS is...that’s atrocious that our country in 2020 can’t produce a somewhat reliable and decent numerical model for meteorological purposes. Totally Embarrassing. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Euro is a miss for the 0Z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro is a miss for the 0Z run. Actually, as nice as it would be to have our first flakes/snow event of the season, I would also be fine if it doesn’t work out too...don’t need the roads getting all slopped up in early November. I hate the chemicals they treat the roads with and what it does to our vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 9 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Eps a little flat at 18z. I think it also shows you that’s it’s a bit of a needle threader too. Not a surprise in the early season. Regardless, still early either way. I'd like to congratulate Scott for the season's first use of 'threading the needle'. A great example of the value of having this thread. Great practice for later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 4 hours ago, weathafella said: Euro is a miss for the 0Z run. EPS is not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 she gone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 37 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'd like to congratulate Scott for the season's first use of 'threading the needle'. A great example of the value of having this thread. Great practice for later on. Lol. The first, "its early" too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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