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A little pre-season thread: Can Nov. 8 pull off an early win?


moneypitmike
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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

A little ditty, a jack for Diane?

I was figuring it would work opposite.  She moves up here to get good snow and then it's a winter of heavy virga up here with storm after storm smoking SE New England.  Ouch, looks super cold early next week with perhaps more snow chances?  Euro min's show lows in the single numbers in NNE.  Thanksgiving skiing?

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5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I was figuring it would work opposite.  She moves up here to get good snow and then it's a winter of heavy virga up here with storm after storm smoking SE New England.  Ouch, looks super cold early next week with perhaps more snow chances?  Euro min's show lows in the single numbers in NNE.  Thanksgiving skiing?

Could be like nzucker, who moved for one winter from the NYC area to SNH, only for it to be 2011-12 with less snow in Rindge than he'd seen in the previous winters in Westchester.  :(

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Crucially the NAM can't seem to lay out down much of any boundary layer resistance...   There's a weak but probably all-important boundary that slips through Wednesday and is 'supposed' to lay down some fresh conditionally/thermodynamic cold air, and some of the other guidance also have at least a dawgon contour of the +PP in the area representing. But the NAM holds the boundary up near ALB -CON ...and just has a 'COL' slab in the area with even some vestigial SW flow...   

Not sure I buy that...  The NAM has a very obvious NW bias with cyclones and as of last check there's been no sweeping tool implementations to correct that over the years so it's likely that antecedent BL is critically underdone and it's drawing its low too far NW

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FWIW as a general rule of thumb for the warmer 2/3 of the subforum, I’ve noticed that when the deepest cold dumps into the Upper Midwest while the storm is on its closest approach to us—as it does in this case—its typically not a situation that bodes well for snow. Hedge in favor of a warmer/wetter outcome. 

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Well this thread was in fact a good training one.  What did we get?  The full progression:

 

1) claims of jumping the gun for starting this on Saturday

2) rising weenies as both Will's and Scooter's needles appeared to be getting threaded

3) Continuous bashing/disgust of the GFS,

4) Tip providing posts that only get 25% read because they're too long and with words no one understands

5) EC solid in the lead-up and then.....

6) These always come north.  SNE enjoys a cold rain with some flakes at the end and congrats PF/JSpin/Jeff.

7) Fears rise that this is indication of another gradient season.

 

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47 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z ICON is better for here

The ICON has run the gauntlet of solutions and shows how precarious this thing is.  

In the past couple days it’s had 0.2” to 17” for here, and everything between that. 

Much better run for some light to moderate SNE snows at 18z. 

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The ICON has run the gauntlet of solutions and shows how precarious this thing is.  

In the past couple days it’s had 0.2” to 17” for here, and everything between that. 

Much better run for some light to moderate SNE snows at 18z. 

 

The spread in the EPS shows the situation well enough at the moment...has some huge hits anywhere from SNE to NNE with some garbage solutions for both and some light to moderate solutions.

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