weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Oh I know...so were the 10 to 1 clown maps from earl barker's page in 2007....but we used to post them because it was fun to assume the model QPF would pan out and all of it would be 10 to 1 snow. This is a pretty extreme solution from a dynamic standpoint, so there would definitely be huge totals if the run actually verified. But clown maps just mesmerize the weenie community more into believing it will happen...that's what I always found funny about them. Like if we post snowfall maps, it somehow starts to make it feel more real. I really wish they would be eliminated. The code which is utilized to run them should be destroyed and the world needs to be brainwashed by the men in black pen to believe they never existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh is that case now... Yeah take your word for it - I just remember discussion over the years related to that model over doing warmth on cold sides of cyclones. Perhaps that's different now. It's on the emc page. It throws mid level warmth too far north of a sfc low so it over mixes but if anything it has a cold bias at the surface. That snow map from the gdps showed southern areas suffering from a torched bl not from too much ip/zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Kuch does okay in marginal airmasses (it will shower lower than (10:1) and mid level magic areas but otherwise isn't super helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 That run, I keep looking at it. Holy crap. Pope buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: That run, I keep looking at it. Holy crap. Pope buried. He knew what he was doing.... shouting from the alter “rain for everyone” turns into that Euro run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Kuch does okay in marginal airmasses (it will shower lower than (10:1) and mid level magic areas but otherwise isn't super helpful. Yeah it's decent when there are some warm layers involved....either at ground or especially aloft. It will punish values over freezing....though it can struggle if the models are biasing too warm near the ground in a paste bomb situation (ala models think ORH will be 34F and snow when in reality it's gonna pound at 31F) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Look another stj warm sector. These last few winters have killed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get an early 12/9/05 Fond memories of that one making the season bright 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 There are people on twitter who have a relationship with the kuchera method and snow maps and it’s extremely disturbing. Garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: It's on the emc page. It throws mid level warmth too far north of a sfc low so it over mixes but if anything it has a cold bias at the surface. That snow map from the gdps showed southern areas suffering from a torched bl not from too much ip/zr. Well, in any case, it's p-type distribution looks unbalanced to me given the general synoptic appeal ( 12z run ); it's extending the liquid too far N into bl resistance in interior zones down here... But, admittedly, some of that is based upon experience with flat waves running underneath nascent ( relatively new ...) polar air masses, as expecting hygroscopic feedback. However it is we get there... imho if the QPF layout took place, my hunch is the rain/snow line is compressed farther south. 'Course, getting the run to verify the other features is entirely a different task - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Using the Ukie as a comparison to what the Euro may have is not always the right call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Using the Ukie as a comparison to what the Euro may have is not always the right call. Weirdly I find the navgem and ecmwf often agree even with the very different verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's decent when there are some warm layers involved....either at ground or especially aloft. It will punish values over freezing....though it can struggle if the models are biasing too warm near the ground in a paste bomb situation (ala models think ORH will be 34F and snow when in reality it's gonna pound at 31F) How likely is it the Euro is in usual overamped bias? Possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 FWIW-sv snow maps are friendlier for eastern sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: He knew what he was doing.... shouting from the alter “rain for everyone” turns into that Euro run. Jeeze I said that about an hr ago and already being taken out of context? Never said rain for everyone, especially not you. This euro run only strengthened my case, further reflecting the trend west/north. How many more runs before euro 850 mb track is over Pittsfield MA? 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You can pretty half those numbers with these snow products This looks like a sloppy inch or two for most of sne...we take in early Novie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: How likely is it the Euro is in usual overamped bias? Possible? I mean...yeah its possible. This was a pretty extreme solution. But even if the solution is weak, we can still get mostly rain if the frontal boundary hasn't pressed far enough south ala the GFS OP run today. We're really rooting for that scooter streak to hold strong on subsequent runs to get more SNE snow. Most should be happy to just get first measurable....that's the bar I"m setting anyway. If it trends colder/more favorable, then we can start thinking more aggressively. Hope the EPS verifies...just came out and it looks really good for interior SNE into CNE. I think most should know all the caveats when we're in the 90-96 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This looks like a sloppy inch or two for most of sne...we take in early Novie. That's all I'm thinking for most, despite the pretty colors Still fun to looks at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That's all I'm thinking for most, despite the pretty colors Still fun to looks at I think I am one of the nicer lower elevation spots in sne for this one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I am one of the nicer lower elevation spots in sne for this one... Agreed...I pick Chris' location first in Greenfield for low elevation spot in this storm as the best, but you're area is a close second. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 14 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Jeeze I said that about an hr ago and already being taken out of context? Never said rain for everyone, especially not you. This euro run only strengthened my case, further reflecting the trend west/north. How many more runs before euro 850 mb track is over Pittsfield MA? 8? Sorry man, we are all just joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Sorry man, we are all just joking. #triggered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: #triggered Violence at the Vatican 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Didn't we have a similar event last October around the 28th? I skied Wildcat where they got between 12-18". I think it was mainly an elevation event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean...yeah its possible. This was a pretty extreme solution. But even if the solution is weak, we can still get mostly rain if the frontal boundary hasn't pressed far enough south ala the GFS OP run today. We're really rooting for that scooter streak to hold strong on subsequent runs to get more SNE snow. Most should be happy to just get first measurable....that's the bar I"m setting anyway. If it trends colder/more favorable, then we can start thinking more aggressively. Hope the EPS verifies...just came out and it looks really good for interior SNE into CNE. I think most should know all the caveats when we're in the 90-96 hour range. Rev interpreted that as “lock up 6+” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, MarkO said: Didn't we have a similar event last October around the 28th? I skied Wildcat where they got between 12-18". I think it was mainly an elevation event. Was a beauty but nne only iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Rev interpreted that as “lock up 6+” Pope can’t like the EPS look for his rains for all’s but border region call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Violence at the Vatican Light a candle for the archbishop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Violence at the Vatican That is a channel 7, alliteration special headline... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 EPS 3”+ probs... those did come north and increase a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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