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A little pre-season thread: Can Nov. 8 pull off an early win?


moneypitmike
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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Absolute crusher SNE interior. Even good amounts to coast 

Coast doesn't get much...they end as snow....this run even has problems for interior SNE, though it's pretty good for N ORH county over to GC/Berks/NW CT. Want it about a tick or two SE in the mid-levels.

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16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The ggem has a cold bias at the surface. Its warm bias is centered in the 850-700 layer.   

Oh is that case now...   Yeah take your word for it - I just remember discussion over the years related to that model over doing warmth on cold sides of cyclones.  Perhaps that's different now. 

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

I wouldn't say that's true for this storm, those numbers look completely reasonable for the interior.

This is the most extreme solution for up here right now so obviously take it with a grain of salt to begin with. But if it played out something like this run you'd probably even up those numbers over the interior in spots. It's frigid where it's all snow. The Euro is spitting out 20s midday Friday with the +SN.

Of course this will end up flatter and DIT will weenie this to a jack over his house of 4-6".

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I wouldn't say that's true for this storm, those numbers look completely reasonable for the interior.

Yeah this does go to town pretty quick for CNE/NNE on this specific run...esp Maine....but I'd definitely still fade straight 10 to 1 in early/mid November. If it's showing that type of explosiveness inside of 24 hours, then we take 'em up.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A very quick and dirty way to see the overall vibe of the run on the 10:1 products.  I mean it’s the same as those QPF by p-type products, just with better colors.

Oh I know...so were the 10 to 1 clown maps from earl barker's page in 2007....but we used to post them because it was fun to assume the model QPF would pan out and all of it would be 10 to 1 snow. This is a pretty extreme solution from a dynamic standpoint, so there would definitely be huge totals if the run actually verified. But clown maps just mesmerize the weenie community more into believing it will happen...that's what I always found funny about them. Like if we post snowfall maps, it somehow starts to make it feel more real.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh I know...so were the 10 to 1 clown maps from earl barker's page in 2007....but we used to post them because it was fun to assume the model QPF would pan out and all of it would be 10 to 1 snow. This is a pretty extreme solution from a dynamic standpoint, so there would definitely be huge totals if the run actually verified. But clown maps just mesmerize the weenie community more into believing it will happen...that's what I always found funny about them. Like if we post snowfall maps, it somehow starts to make it feel more real.

just like seeing those pretty colors of watches warnings and advisories, if they're up all of a sudden its more real.

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