ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: That's an ouch in my hood, but would hardly be surprising given the time of year. Still, a very nice early season system in general. This is prob a tough setup for the south coast in general. Still a ways to go, but we'd probably want to see the cold press another 50-100 miles south before the wave moves in to benefit the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Any snow in early November is good snow...unless it’s a big snow and screws the rest of the winter...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is prob a tough setup for the south coast in general. Still a ways to go, but we'd probably want to see the cold press another 50-100 miles south before the wave moves in to benefit the south coast. Yeah, my expectations are grounded in reality. Would be nice for the cold to over perform and see a few flakes. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Hoth fighting the warm L.I. Sound at this early point in the season...but I agree with you that it’s a nice looking system for this point in the game, at least how it looks currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Hoth may have a better shot than, say, me. He may have issues more just aloft as it doesn't quite cool 925-850, but NE winds here off 55F SSTs would need a hell of a cold airmass. Should be a nice CF near BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Anyone south of Boston...we're on to January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hoth may have a better shot than, say, me. He may have issues more just aloft as it doesn't quite cool 925-850, but NE winds here off 55F SSTs would need a hell of a cold airmass. Should be a nice CF near BOS. Scooter throwing furniture and breaking windows like Nov 2012 when Jerry was doing naked snow angels in Brookline and you were getting a 34F downpour? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Scooter throwing furniture and breaking windows like Nov 2012 when Jerry was doing naked snow angels in Brookline and you were getting a 34F downpour? It's probably good I was talking to you in that late December event. It was like Samaritan's hotline....Will keeping me on the phone, telling me not to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 06z euro only goes to 90h right before the event starts but fwiw, it looks slightly suppressed from 00z. Still consider that model noise 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's probably good I was talking to you in that late December event. It was like Samaritan's hotline....Will keeping me on the phone, telling me not to do this. Lol...yeah it happened twice to you. I forgot that. In the 12/29/12 event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol...yeah it happened twice to you. I forgot that. In the 12/29/12 event too. I can't be upset in a November event. Climo is hostile for sure. But man that December event...I was really upset. It was this weird tongue of warmth that pivoted over me. Shit, even Bob turned to snow before me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 06z EPS came in a little flatter too like the OP. Not surprising. Seems to generally mirror the OP trends and it's not a major shift. But that's probably what you want to see if you are south of the pike...keep the mid-level warmth at bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 That's an extremely tight thermal gradient...could help enhance an extremely narrow axis of some pretty heavy snow depending on how this materializes. Maybe room for some low-end warning criteria along a narrow strip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Any snow in early November is good snow...unless it’s a big snow and screws the rest of the winter...lol. I don't have my snowblower hooked up to the tractor yet. Still have to get wood into the garage. I'd take a pass on this if it's more than a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That's an extremely tight thermal gradient...could help enhance an extremely narrow axis of some pretty heavy snow depending on how this materializes. Maybe room for some low-end warning criteria along a narrow strip. I-84 tickling the ML fronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I-84 tickling the ML fronto? would be a great start to winter...and hopefully signs of an excellent trend for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 These are cold outbreaks of yore...like colonists killing of 1620 type stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 This is why I don't track anything or get invested til Dec 1. I assume nothing for here, and I will not be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: These are cold outbreaks of yore...like colonists killing of 1620 type stuff. yeah I'm not very happy about this. If we have to go through another winter of these horrific outbreaks I'm going to scream. 850 temps around mid-month like -15C WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That's an extremely tight thermal gradient...could help enhance an extremely narrow axis of some pretty heavy snow depending on how this materializes. Maybe room for some low-end warning criteria along a narrow strip. There's definitely a nice looking ribbon of ML fronto potential on this. It's pretty classic for a stripe of heavier snow along that ribbon wherever it sets up. Some of these model runs are trying to wind this up a little bit too before it exits stage right...we'll have to watch that. If it trends a little deeper as we get closer on the late blooming aspect, then we'd have to watch for another area of ML fronto enhancement that starts tilting more NE-SW or even NNE/SSW...but that's something to worry about closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Is MT a thing with the Appalachian Mountains? Anyways I feel pretty good that the Euro is sniffing this out. The theme for the past few weeks (maybe longer) has been for trough amplification along the Great Lakes...perhaps as a response to the low MT/AAM state we've been in? With that trough developing east of the Rockies through the week that should result in more -MT/AAM. November going to be a big winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's definitely a nice looking ribbon of ML fronto potential on this. It's pretty classic for a stripe of heavier snow along that ribbon wherever it sets up. Some of these model runs are trying to wind this up a little bit too before it exits stage right...we'll have to watch that. If it trends a little deeper as we get closer on the late blooming aspect, then we'd have to watch for another area of ML fronto enhancement that starts tilting more NE-SW or even NNE/SSW...but that's something to worry about closer in. This sort of reminds me of a scenario we had maybe early last winter or the winter before...I don't remember if the set-up was as similar, but this concept applied and it worked out very well. There was that crazy strip that went through southern CT and caused a commute nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This sort of reminds me of a scenario we had maybe early last winter or the winter before...I don't remember if the set-up was as similar, but this concept applied and it worked out very well. There was that crazy strip that went through southern CT and caused a commute nightmare. Nov 16 2018 ...but practically every snowstorm causes a commuter nightmare in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nov 16 2018 ...but practically every snowstorm causes a commuter nightmare in CT. yup that was the date...and you're not wrong on that I think they got slammed even worse even down in northern NJ. I don't think though that setup was anything like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: yup that was the date...and you're not wrong on that I think they got slammed even worse even down in northern NJ. I don't think though that setup was anything like this. Get accumulating snows timed during rush hour and you can kiss your commute goodbye. That storm last Nov I left early around 315pm when the first flakes started flying. I got home as usual maybe an added 10mins. My co-workers left at 5-530pm and it took some a good 4 hours to get to Seymour/Oxford, from Norwalk. #weenies-know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Get accumulating snows timed during rush hour and you can kiss your commute goodbye. That storm last Nov I left early around 315pm when the first flakes started flying. I got home as usual maybe an added 10mins. My co-workers left at 5-530pm and it took some a good 4 hours to get to Seymour/Oxford, from Norwalk. #weenies-know Yeah I heard some horrid stories from that..took some people like 4-5 hours to get home...forget that. I think that was the same storm one of the news stations had a car in front of them drilled by some out of control idiot in a pick-up truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nov 16 2018 ...but practically every snowstorm causes a commuter nightmare in CT. Perfectly clear day causes nightmares on 84..Looks like winter around here now, so lets get some early snowfall as long as it doesn't jinx us the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Get accumulating snows timed during rush hour and you can kiss your commute goodbye. That storm last Nov I left early around 315pm when the first flakes started flying. I got home as usual maybe an added 10mins. My co-workers left at 5-530pm and it took some a good 4 hours to get to Seymour/Oxford, from Norwalk. #weenies-know My wife works in Tarrytown, right off of Sawmill. I had her leave 1 hour before the snow started....Some of her co-workers ended up spending the night or were stuck for hours on the highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 84 hour NAM should help clear things up in a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: 84 hour NAM should help clear things up in a bit. hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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