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A little pre-season thread: Can Nov. 8 pull off an early win?


moneypitmike
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The difference in whether this event ends up being shreaded rad/2"er above a wiper annoyance cold showers, versus a more cohesive cyclogenesis, is going to come down to whether the trough over the Dakotas can start to re-orient its self into more of a neutral tilt by the time the mid levels are nearing the Lakes. If so, we'll have a 998 to 1002 mb type close surface reflection somewhere near SW PA with semblance of a new center itching to implode over S NJ.  

This could be somewhere in between that, or if the native speed saturation in the flow claims another S/W soldier we'll see instead the southern arc of the trough start to absorb nearing the Lakes as it slopes more positive ...and that lead surface reflection is a blown up ravioli with associated mix and snow shrapnels racing through the OV/NE...

Obviously, folks want the former solution. 

The Euro's not quite into it's wheel house being that this is D5 here... However, in this case we get a cheat insight because the way this thing is situated in the flow means that it IS in the Euro wheel house up there near the Dakotas, where the trough has a bit of a robuster look and that makes for an easier extrapolation. Certainly clearer so than having to wait for the governing mechanics to at last over B.C. 

So I'm thinking more along the more cohesive ravioli in this case - which, I'm aware that is going to come across as schnitzely, but I can assure you, no buns are necessary.  This thing is in the Euro's wheel house over the D's, which in some cases, fast flow ftw!

Obviously too early to discuss details

 

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50 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It worked last year...just as long as it is less than 6 inches we should be good!

We need some different rules for November. 2012 had 6"+ in the interior on Nov 7 and it ended up a huge winter. We had other years too with big early/mid Nov snows like 2004, 1987, and 1986 that were good winters too. 

Maybe "if the storm gives over 8" and it occurs on a Friday and happens within 3 days of the ides of November" then it will be a ratter winter. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We need some different rules for November. 2012 had 6"+ in the interior on Nov 7 and it ended up a huge winter. We had other years too with big early/mid Nov snows like 2004, 1987, and 1986 that were good winters too. 

Maybe "if the storm gives over 8" and it occurs on a Friday and happens within 3 days of the ides of November" then it will be a ratter winter. 

True, although 2012-13 sent Kevin and Scott and most of us to the brink before delivering the goods in historic fashion in early Feb. 

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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We need some different rules for November. 2012 had 6"+ in the interior on Nov 7 and it ended up a huge winter. We had other years too with big early/mid Nov snows like 2004, 1987, and 1986 that were good winters too. 

Maybe "if the storm gives over 8" and it occurs on a Friday and happens within 3 days of the ides of November" then it will be a ratter winter. 

It was more in jest, but good know. Definitely don't want any bad luck with this winter. Last year was a bit painful after having 8 inches on November 15th only to hobble our way to another 25ish inches the rest of the season....

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9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It was more in jest, but good know. Definitely don't want any bad luck with this winter. Last year was a bit painful after having 8 inches on November 15th only to hobble our way to another 25ish inches the rest of the season....

Lol my post was in jest too. But if we're counting, November snowfall is actually usually a good sign. Last year was in the minority. 

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