A little pre-season thread: Can Nov. 8 pull off an early win?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s why next weeks threat is not legitimate. It’s the Euro pulling its usual nonsense like this week. Dry, cold next week 

Yea. It tends to show a very nice solution in the d5 timeframe then slowly backs off the idea. It’s like when your boss mentions you’re up for a promotion but little by little they mention it less and less until you eventually realize it’s never happening.

[moneypitmike]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

GFS, Canadian, and Euro have it but still 6 days or so out..

These always come north. 

[CoastalWx]

5 days out is still in the realm of wild solutions....even the ensembles. At least the ensembles showed a lot of spread, meaning nothing was close to a lock. You cannot take day 4-5 as gospel. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. It tends to show a very nice solution in the d5-d7 timeframe then slowly backs off the idea. It’s like when your boss mentions you’re up for a promotion but little by little they mention it less and less until you eventually realize it’s never happening.

This week looked like a slam dunk. When Scooter posted it was coming on Monday morning folks got amped up. Fool us once , Shame on us

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This week looked like a slam dunk. When Scooter posted it was coming on Monday morning folks got amped up. Fool us once , Shame on us

LOL, it did come...and it went north. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Faith >>> Science. Follow the pope, he knows all.

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Faith >>> Science. Follow the pope, he knows all.

I know you’re being facetious here but I think many are confused...And this point is important enough to elaborate on...Forecasting is an art and an independent skill that can be developed. Some are much better at it than others. Dare I say there are many “professional meteorologists” out there who are terrible forecasters. A major contributor to this is atmospheric sci programs and the NWS are not filtering candidates based on forecasting skills/ability, but I digress....

Models are built based on scientific theory, but the inherent uncertainties within the models —chaos and complexity—require the art of forecasting to produce accurate —or at least better than consensus— forecasts. 

 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I know you’re being facetious here but I think many are confused...And this point is important enough to elaborate on...Forecasting is an art and an independent skill that can be developed. Some are much better at it than others. Dare I say there are many “professional meteorologists” out there who are terrible forecasters. A major contributor to this is atmospheric sci programs and the NWS are not filtering candidates based on forecasting skills/ability, but I digress....

Models are built based on scientific theory, but the inherent uncertainties within the models —chaos and complexity—require the art of forecasting to produce accurate —or at least better than consensus— forecasts. 

 

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This week looked like a slam dunk. When Scooter posted it was coming on Monday morning folks got amped up. Fool us once , Shame on us

And there in is your problem..NOTHING is a slam dunk, especially 4-5 days out.  But you always seem to think so.  And who is Scooter..some all knowing wizard with a crystal ball?   Scooter says these things to suck you in...he also said that “there’s a long way to go, and that anything, and everything is still on the table.”  But you only heard what you wanted to hear..which was “it’s coming!”

 

Grow up! 

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I know you’re being facetious here but I think many are confused...And this point is important enough to elaborate on...Forecasting is an art and an independent skill that can be developed. Some are much better at it than others. Dare I say there are many “professional meteorologists” out there who are terrible forecasters. A major contributor to this is atmospheric sci programs and the NWS are not filtering candidates based on forecasting skills/ability, but I digress....

Models are built based on scientific theory, but the inherent uncertainties within the models —chaos and complexity—require the art of forecasting to produce accurate —or at least better than consensus— forecasts. 

 

GOAT

Mad respect bro.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And there in is your problem..NOTHING is a slam dunk, especially 4-5 days out.  But you always seem to think so.  And who is Scooter..some all knowing wizard with a crystal ball?   Scooter says these things to suck you in...he also said that “there’s a long way to go, and that anything, and everything is still on the table.”  But you only heard what you wanted to hear..which was “it’s coming!”

 

Grow up! 

He is your daddy ! He bounces you on his knee.

[CoastalWx]

Jesus...lol. You guys are cray.

[NYCweatherNOW]

What happen to this system? This thing looks like a cold front now.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

What happen to this system? This thing looks like a cold front now.

That's what it should have been viewed as all along. 

So many times people fall for these setups and except a monster snow event during a FROPA. It always was a cold front moving through...then the snow maps went crazy and people's pants dropped like potatoes 

[MJO812]

Nam has a few inches for interior sections.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam has a few inches for interior sections.

Yeah. Like maybe a couple in the Berks. 

[tamarack]

51 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Models are built based on scientific theory, but the inherent uncertainties within the models —chaos and complexity—require the art of forecasting to produce accurate —or at least better than consensus— forecasts. 

A skilled builder of models for forest growth once told us, "All models are wrong but some are useful."  I consider that to be good advice.

[Typhoon Tip]

I dunno ...this looks a snow sounding over Logan 

 

42036969052 02414 113415 39019898

 

[MaineJayhawk]

So Scooter is not a wizard?  

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dunno ...this looks a snow sounding over Logan 

 

42036969052 02414 113415 39019898

 

Any reasonable rates and that’s snow hands down.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

So Scooter is not a wizard?  

Disappointing news. 

[dendrite]

21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Any reasonable rates and that’s snow hands down.

idk...these setups can keep a pesky relatively warm shallow layer east of the high terrain with NW flow and slowly drying low levels. I'm leaning on the pessimistic side. Hope for flakes at the end. A coating or more is a bonus. I'll be happy up here if we get a coating.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk...these setups can keep a pesky relatively warm shallow layer east of the high terrain with NW flow and slowly drying low levels. I'm leaning on the pessimistic side. Hope for flakes at the end. A coating or more is a bonus. I'll be happy up here if we get a coating.

It's certainly painted that way synoptically ... with green not blue, where the grid should have blue

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

And there in is your problem..NOTHING is a slam dunk, especially 4-5 days out.  But you always seem to think so.  And who is Scooter..some all knowing wizard with a crystal ball?   Scooter says these things to suck you in...he also said that “there’s a long way to go, and that anything, and everything is still on the table.”  But you only heard what you wanted to hear..which was “it’s coming!”

 

Grow up! 

Amen!!!!

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

I know you’re being facetious here but I think many are confused...And this point is important enough to elaborate on...Forecasting is an art and an independent skill that can be developed. Some are much better at it than others. Dare I say there are many “professional meteorologists” out there who are terrible forecasters. A major contributor to this is atmospheric sci programs and the NWS are not filtering candidates based on forecasting skills/ability, but I digress....

Models are built based on scientific theory, but the inherent uncertainties within the models —chaos and complexity—require the art of forecasting to produce accurate —or at least better than consensus— forecasts. 

 

I'm nominating this for post of the year!!

[Germanweenie]

As an outsider looking in, I just want to say thank you all for being passionate weather freaks.  I am a snow lover myself, engineer by trade, so I have an inherent interest in following the conversations about weather/storm threats here (and I may sometimes use it to sound really smart in front of my friends ).  I have no meteorological knowledge to speak of and am mostly busy googling terms that are being thrown around.  Still, after lurking around for the last eight years, it was somewhat obvious that this system wasn't going to dump 12" on most of SNE, or, at least that chances are very very slim.  You build a kind of sense, almost like an intuition.  Maybe that's part of what the Pope is referring to.

Either way, half the entertainment I get by following you guys is from the (sometimes too) serious and passionate banter, and for that, I thank you!  It's truly entertaining, so keep it up!!

[mreaves]

26 minutes ago, Germanweenie said:

As an outsider looking in, I just want to say thank you all for being passionate weather freaks.  I am a snow lover myself, engineer by trade, so I have an inherent interest in following the conversations about weather/storm threats here (and I may sometimes use it to sound really smart in front of my friends ).  I have no meteorological knowledge to speak of and am mostly busy googling terms that are being thrown around.  Still, after lurking around for the last eight years, it was somewhat obvious that this system wasn't going to dump 12" on most of SNE, or, at least that chances are very very slim.  You build a kind of sense, almost like an intuition.  Maybe that's part of what the Pope is referring to.

Either way, half the entertainment I get by following you guys is from the (sometimes too) serious and passionate banter, and for that, I thank you!  It's truly entertaining, so keep it up!!

Germanweenie eh?  Do you run the ICON out of your basement? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

That's what it should have been viewed as all along. 

So many times people fall for these setups and except a monster snow event during a FROPA. It always was a cold front moving through...then the snow maps went crazy and people's pants dropped like potatoes 

Ya and ppl hump the euro/eps which had this consistently wrong for days and deeper 

“What’s wrong w gfs , its only showing a fropa was the theme here Monday “

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya and ppl hump the euro/eps which had this consistently wrong for days and deeper 

“What’s wrong w gfs , its only showing a fropa was the theme here Monday “

I'm not sure if this is considered a bias or not, but in the medium range models have a tendency to overplay these types of scenarios...I'm going to start calling them Houdini b/c when one particular models is consistent with the evolution we all get sucked in and then all of a sudden...whammy it's gone.  

[dendrite]

44 minutes ago, Germanweenie said:

As an outsider looking in, I just want to say thank you all for being passionate weather freaks.  I am a snow lover myself, engineer by trade, so I have an inherent interest in following the conversations about weather/storm threats here (and I may sometimes use it to sound really smart in front of my friends ).  I have no meteorological knowledge to speak of and am mostly busy googling terms that are being thrown around.  Still, after lurking around for the last eight years, it was somewhat obvious that this system wasn't going to dump 12" on most of SNE, or, at least that chances are very very slim.  You build a kind of sense, almost like an intuition.  Maybe that's part of what the Pope is referring to.

Either way, half the entertainment I get by following you guys is from the (sometimes too) serious and passionate banter, and for that, I thank you!  It's truly entertaining, so keep it up!!

Good first post. Welcome aboard.

Usually we just hand out weenies, but you're german so here's a frankfurter.