A little pre-season thread: Can Nov. 8 pull off an early win?

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to spin this off into some sociological multi-faceted study that's filtered through a prism of cynicism or anything ... but I don't even know if laziness is the right adjective.  There's certainly some of that, but I suspect it's mostly 'conditioning'

Put it this way ... in 1980s, there were no such things as word processors that existed outside the human skull.  You processed what words you wanted to write, then, you wrote them down on ledgered paper with a pen.  That was word processing... 

Then the 1990s came around PC's were yet another charming attribute since the Industrial Revolution, that foisted onto humanity and forever changed the way in which we interact and do work and everything really.  By the time I graduated from college, not only could I produce a ten page paper covering the Gilded Era of United States History 103 in one night, ... it was really built into curriculum expectation.  Syllabi began to include lap-tops with word processors... 

See that change?  

I see these younger college graduating meteorologist as being wizards at chart sourcing and consuming of prepared graphics, almost like they were taught to do that, much in the way the changes in word processing took place.  It's just changes in requirements, and as colleges have a responsibility to set students up with the best position to succeed, they are teaching kids clown charts now - something like that. 

I guess I just wonder how much of all that is laziness, and how much of that is that the new generation of Mets are being educated and  programmed differently. 

Good post and good points.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

All true Will.  But take that stuff(Pretty colors and super refined resolution and such) away, and they’re all jumping all over more than they used to.  GFS is total trash now..that’s not better than it was five years ago.  And the Euro isn’t the same as it once was.  
 

But I get it...and Social media is certainly not helping and adding to the issues.  Anyway, I’m glad we have this site, and you pros to explain and teach us less knowledgeable peeps what to look for and how it all works. 

Euro isn't the same; it's better.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro isn't the same; it's better.

Not in my opinion Ray...and I’ve talked to a few Pro METS, and they agree, that it’s not as stable as it once was.  So We’ll have to disagree on that.  

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not in my opinion Ray...and I’ve talked to a few Pro METS, and they agree, that it’s not as stable as it once was.  So We’ll have to disagree on that.  

It’s stability was often to its detriment because it failed to pick up on subtleties sometimes.  Higher resolution leads to the ability to change on the fly more readily.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Not in my opinion Ray...and I’ve talked to a few Pro METS, and they agree, that it’s not as stable as it once was.  So We’ll have to disagree on that.  

Well, statistically speaking, you and a few pro mets are incorrect.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Not in my opinion Ray...and I’ve talked to a few Pro METS, and they agree, that it’s not as stable as it once was.  So We’ll have to disagree on that.  

Stable doesn't necessarily equal better. There were times we would see very fast shifts in guidance and in those cases, the euro would often be slowest to change and last to the party. This usually happened inside of 60 or 72 hours. Boxing Day was a classic example and so was 2/5/16.

If there's a fundamental shift in the key data, then a big swing may be warranted. I agree it tends to swing a little more than it used to, but that doesn't mean it's worse. It still probably lags all other guidance in the magnitude of the swings. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stable doesn't necessarily equal better. There were times we would see very fast shifts in guidance and in those cases, the euro would often be slowest to change and last to the party. This usually happened inside of 60 or 72 hours. Boxing Day was a classic example and so was 2/5/16.

If there's a fundamental shift in the key data, then a big swing may be warranted. I agree it tends to swing a little more than it used to, but that doesn't mean it's worse. It still probably lags all other guidance in the magnitude of the swings. 

I think the increased access to a larger array of data has allowed for greater scrutiny of every failure, as well, which fuels this misperception.

It runs twice as often now, too, so obviously there will be more variablity.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, statistically speaking, you and a few pro mets are incorrect.

As I said...the verification scores will say it’s improved; but overall,  The MET(who teaches at the university level/has his doctorate in Atmospheric sciences), agreed that  it’s not the same, and the tweaks made it more prone to wild swings etc etc... 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the increased access to a larger array of data has allowed for greater scrutimy of every failure, as well, which fuels this misperception.

It runs twice as often now, too, so obviously there will be more variablity.

True!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

As I said...the verification scores will say it’s improved; but overall,  The MET(who teaches at the university level/has his doctorate in Atmospheric sciences), agreed that  it’s not the same, and the tweaks made it more prone to wild swings etc etc... 

Well, hopefully he encountered verification scores during his doctoral ciriculum. Lol

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stable doesn't necessarily equal better. There were times we would see very fast shifts in guidance and in those cases, the euro would often be slowest to change and last to the party. This usually happened inside of 60 or 72 hours. Boxing Day was a classic example and so was 2/5/16.

If there's a fundamental shift in the key data, then a big swing may be warranted. I agree it tends to swing a little more than it used to, but that doesn't mean it's worse. It still probably lags all other guidance in the magnitude of the swings. 

Yeah i remember 2/5/16 modeling, ECMWF was steady as she goes and the last to the party. IIRC the GFS picked up a major hit first with a susbstanial shift to the left. This was the wave on a front storm with an almost vertical qpf gradient.

[wxeyeNH]

12Z Euro seems a bit weaker.  Keeps any snow north of Manchester NH

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, hopefully he encountered verification scores during his doctoral ciriculum. Lol

I guess the Point is, everybody in the business of meteorology has their own feelings and ideas.  Just like in any profession.  Scores may say it’s improved, but some In the field feel somewhat Otherwise.

 

It’s the best..it’s always been the best, but I can see why some folks feel modeling is  worse now. All you have to do is point out the new FV3/GFS...
 

Anyway..good discussion.  

[Ginx snewx]

Thought this was a threat thread.  Nice snows Greens to Maine on the Euro. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

12Z Euro seems a bit weaker.  Keeps any snow north of Manchester NH

fast flow hedge weaker /progressive 

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Thought this was a threat thread.  Nice snows Greens to Maine on the Euro. 

Where it’s supposed to be this time of year anyway....

 

Im good with that outcome now.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Funny how few comments there are w biggest run of the day

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Funny how few comments there are w biggest run of the day

Since everyone bailed after yesterday, 'biggest run' is a really relative term.

Good luck NNE.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Funny how few comments there are w biggest run of the day

The bulk of us should move onto next Tuesday. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Funny how few comments there are w biggest run of the day

Lol..that’s always the first giveaway that it’s not good news for winter enthusiasts. 
 

Enthusiasm is gone....and rightfully so.  It’s just a LIL rain for most.  Climo is still hostile for anything of consequence during the first week/half of November in SNE anyway.
 

  So now we wait for the next possibility Of some wintertime fun...

[Great Snow 1717]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not in my opinion Ray...and I’ve talked to a few Pro METS, and they agree, that it’s not as stable as it once was.  So We’ll have to disagree on that.  

Part of the problem is the over reliance on future cast/models/analog years/indexes. There is very little mention by TV METS of the pattern over a period of time. Pattern recognition is a lost art. And many disregard the pattern altogether.  It's led to some epic fails for winter forecasts.  And many who do post a winter forecast tend to be fans of winter weather so there is some bias in their forecasts.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

fast flow hedge weaker /progressive 

 

Pope ftw?    Weren't some models showing this in the LR but lost it in the MR only to bring it back to this outcome? 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The bulk of us should move onto next Tuesday. 

The cold certainly should be there in that time frame. 

[weatherwiz]

55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to spin this off into some sociological multi-faceted study that's filtered through a prism of cynicism or anything ... but I don't even know if laziness is the right adjective.  There's certainly some of that, but I suspect it's mostly 'conditioning'

Put it this way ... in 1980s, there were no such things as word processors that existed outside the human skull.  You processed what words you wanted to write, then, you wrote them down on ledgered paper with a pen.  That was word processing... 

Then the 1990s came around PC's were yet another charming attribute since the Industrial Revolution, that foisted onto humanity and forever changed the way in which we interact and do work and everything really.  By the time I graduated from college, not only could I produce a ten page paper covering the Gilded Era of United States History 103 in one night, ... it was really built into curriculum expectation.  Syllabi began to include lap-tops with word processors... 

See that change?  

I see these younger college graduating meteorologist as being wizards at chart sourcing and consuming of prepared graphics, almost like they were taught to do that, much in the way the changes in word processing took place.  It's just changes in requirements, and as colleges have a responsibility to set students up with the best position to succeed, they are teaching kids clown charts now - something like that. 

I guess I just wonder how much of all that is laziness, and how much of that is that the new generation of Mets are being educated and  programmed differently. 

This is a fantastic post...and yes, conditioning is a much more accurate word to use. 

when I was at school and winter threats came up the first thing some of the students would bring up in class, "what do the snow maps show?" Nobody cared about anything else. The models are proclaimed to be horrendous, brutal, garbage, blah, blah, blah, when the snow maps got it wrong in their backyard...the algorithms which go into these snow maps are pretty piss poor and too basic for something that is beyond basic and quite complicated.

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

25 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The bulk of us should move onto next month.

[dendrite]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the increased access to a larger array of data has allowed for greater scrutiny of every failure, as well, which fuels this misperception.

It runs twice as often now, too, so obviously there will be more variablity.

Heck it used to be once per day back in the early WWBB days. We had to rely on coarse H5, slp, and H85 temp maps at 24hr intervals once per day. And good luck ever seeing QPF. A few lucky mets would have it and would describe it to us, but for awhile there it seemed like a mythical creature.

So we'd declare the euro the unanimous winner when it showed the low pressure center inside the BM at 72hr and 850s below 0C while the AVN/MRF and NOGAPS would be a flat wave heading for Bermuda. The extra resolution the Euro had back then really gave it a big advantage over the American suite with its ability to track the s/w's and actually phase them when warranted.

Times have changed though and so have the standards. My problem with flip floppy models is you don't know what's more right or wrong. At least a model making toddler steps toward the consensus may have some value....like Will's Boxing Day 2010 example.

So the models are definitely better overall than they used to be, but with the higher resolution and advanced parameterization it's easier to get some burp/hiccup runs as well that leave you scratching your head wondering what to believe.

[dryslot]

I miss the ETA and NGM models.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I miss the ETA and NGM models.

No you dont.

I miss the RUC.

[HoarfrostHubb]

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

No you dont.

I miss the RUC.

Fuc the RUC

[dryslot]

Messanger use to bang the RUC.............