A little pre-season thread: Can Nov. 8 pull off an early win?

[WinterWolf]

Perfect climo system for Early November..a few flakes to an inch or two at most for SNE.  And a lil more substantial for NNE and the elevated areas of the northern areas.   Just what you’d expect for this early time period.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This is lol.

I’ve got my baseline set around 2”...just want to cover the grass, wintry appeal.

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well Kevin’s fv3 got a lot better for snow here...

Looks phantomish to me. BL is warm with the brunt of the precip and then it really hangs back a finger of precip as the deeper cold moves in. As if we didn't need more reasons to toss a GFS run.

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I’ve got my baseline set around 2”...just want to cover the grass, wintry appeal.

2" would make a nice day of tracking game on saturday.

[Spanks45]

I think someone pointed out a day or 2 ago that the Ukie was really flat while the Euro was dumping 1-2 feet of snow up north with a "deepening" low pressure...That really might be a good sign that the Euro is out to lunch despite it's own ensemble support? Obviously it won't happen every time, but something to store away for later on.... Obviously we still have a couple days to go, but it seems more FROPA at this point....

[dryslot]

I'll be back in 5 mins...............

[TalcottWx]

I am not using the GFS this entire winter. Maybe GEFS. The op is useless.

Convince me otherwise.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I am not using the GFS this entire winter. Maybe GEFS. The op is useless.

Convince me otherwise.

Crickets...

I at least referenced it in my blogs during previous seasons, albeit usually to illustrate why the euro was preferred, but probably won't this year.

[weathafella]

Not endorsing, just reporting 

[moneypitmike]

33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Virtually going to just be a race between how quickly CAA occurs in the lowest part of the atmosphere. A large portion of the region (outside of coastal areas) probably stand a good chance of seeing at least some flakes as this winds down. Still can't rule out a pretty decent band that extends from ME farther south into SNE. I think NW Hills of CT could see 2-3'' of snow 

This is a race I never like being in.  I'd much rather be fending off a warm intrusion than waiting on the outcome of that race.

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Crickets...

I at least referenced it in my blogs during previous seasons, albeit usually to illustrate why the euro was preferred, but probably won't this year.

We literally have the euro by itself. ggem ukmet rgem is a crapshoot. Then the mesos.

I don't have the stats to back it up, but feels like modeling has become worse in past 5 years.

[dryslot]

35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Virtually going to just be a race between how quickly CAA occurs in the lowest part of the atmosphere. A large portion of the region (outside of coastal areas) probably stand a good chance of seeing at least some flakes as this winds down. Still can't rule out a pretty decent band that extends from ME farther south into SNE. I think NW Hills of CT could see 2-3'' of snow 

This is the part that generally the models struggle with until we get closer in time, But we have to remember, We're dealing with Nov not Jan.

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'll be back in 5 mins...............

Every model is turning this into a weak storm.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This is the part that generally the models struggle with until we get closer in time, But we have to remember, We're dealing with Nov not Jan.

And early November at that.  

[correnjim1]

so they stole even the few flakes i was hoping for lol

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This is a race I never like being in.  I'd much rather be fending off a warm intrusion than waiting on the outcome of that race.

Totally agree!  Although this early it’s often this situation 

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This is a race I never like being in.  I'd much rather be fending off a warm intrusion than waiting on the outcome of that race.

Especially with NW flow behind the front....downslope warming + drying.

[Sugarloaf1989]

15 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Really Kev,   It says afterward, right after how it’s being developed under the FV3, that it is inheriting the “GFS Moniker!!”
 

I mean please, just admit for once, that you’re WRONG!!  

NWS is all rain here in Enfield.

[moneypitmike]

39 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This is the part that generally the models struggle with until we get closer in time, But we have to remember, We're dealing with Nov not Jan.

I also have to remember you're in Maine and we're in the tropics. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

I also have to remember you're in Maine and we're in the tropics. 

Where it Raines?

[weatherwiz]

42 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

We literally have the euro by itself. ggem ukmet rgem is a crapshoot. Then the mesos.

I don't have the stats to back it up, but feels like modeling has become worse in past 5 years.

I disagree with this. Perhaps the stats will show this (although from bits and pieces that sometimes get tossed around on Twitter I think overall they haven't become worse).

IMO, the biggest issue is laziness...there seems to be very little focus on meteorology anymore...it's all about rip and reading, focusing on a specific weather chart (whether it be a snow map, SLP, QPF) and running away with it. Social media I think is the biggest blame here...it's easy to post a model snowfall map showing 20-30'' of snow and then all of a sudden its retweeted thousands of times. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I disagree with this. Perhaps the stats will show this (although from bits and pieces that sometimes get tossed around on Twitter I think overall they haven't become worse).

IMO, the biggest issue is laziness...there seems to be very little focus on meteorology anymore...it's all about rip and reading, focusing on a specific weather chart (whether it be a snow map, SLP, QPF) and running away with it. Social media I think is the biggest blame here...it's easy to post a model snowfall map showing 20-30'' of snow and then all of a sudden its retweeted thousands of times. 

 

Yeah modeling is definitely better than 5 years ago. People just demand more from the models and the data is also available in every form and every map for every weenie to look at and I think most are supposed that they actually aren't right verbatim quite frequently. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

12z GFS is pretty boring but would be a more widespread 1-3” for more people.  

Nice hole in zone just about over my home. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah modeling is definitely better than 5 years ago. People just demand more from the models and the data is also available in every form and every map for every weenie to look at and I think most are supposed that they actually aren't right verbatim quite frequently. 

Exactly. 

Too much emphasis is being placed on products which really shouldn't have that much weight placed on them. Each product is just a tool/piece of guidance. 

I can see how easy it is to just look at a map and run with it...but you're selling yourself short and if you're going to communicate that one map you're just going to pass along the wrong idea and all credibility becomes shot. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Perfect climo system for Early November..a few flakes to an inch or two at most for SNE.  And a lil more substantial for NNE and the elevated areas of the northern areas.   Just what you’d expect for this early time period.

I agree.  Climo coming into form for the season. Sure, a snow event for SNE would be nice, but this set up seems to be just what we want for this time of year.

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, DotRat_Wx said:

We literally have the euro by itself. ggem ukmet rgem is a crapshoot. Then the mesos.

I don't have the stats to back it up, but feels like modeling has become worse in past 5 years.

I mentioned and asked this a few years ago. Don't recall the response that was given

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

I mentioned and asked this a few years ago. Don't recall the response that was given, but it sure seems like models are less reliable now

All the METS say otherwise...I’m sure some verification scores proves they’re right.  
 

But the GFS is worse then it’s ever been(not that it was ever all that good to begin with).  And the Euro..while still the best(and best by far now that the GFS is total dung), still isn’t as good as it was before it’s upgrade imo.

 Before it’s upgrade, the Euro would latch onto something, and stay on it like a bloodhound...now it’s all over the place on each run..at 3 days out.  They ruined that model after the upgrade!  
 

So if you go by that...then they seem worse than they were.  But the pros will argue to the cows come home otherwise.  Overall(Taking all modeling as a whole) I’m sure things have improved some over the last five years...but it’s hard to see it in real time sensible weather forecasting.  At least from what we discuss on here.  

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

All the METS say otherwise...I’m sure some verification scores proves they’re right.  
 

But the GFS is worse then it’s ever been(not that it was ever all that good to begin with).  And the Euro..while still the best(and best by far now that the GFS is total dung), still isn’t as good as it was before it’s upgrade imo.

 Before it’s upgrade, the Euro would latch onto something, and stay on it like a bloodhound...now it’s all over the place on each run..at 3 days out.  They ruined that model after the upgrade!  
 

So if you go by that...then they seem worse than they were.  But the pros will argue to the cows come home otherwise.  Overall(Taking all modeling as a whole) I’m sure things have improved some over the last five years...but it’s hard to see it in real time sensible weather forecasting.  At least from what we discuss on here.  

We've been boiled slowly like a frog into being tricked that we don't notice that day 3-4 back in 2011 considerably worse than it is now. Hell, back in 2007 or 2008 we used to weenie tag people starting a thread for a threat that was 5 days out...now it's pretty rare that a threat makes it to even 4 days out without a thread. 

And as has been mention ad nauseam, the  graphics improvements in the past 5-7 years have been incredible...but that hurts people's perceptions IMHO. We look at pretty QPF maps and snow maps that have been resolved down to 5-10 sq km and it creates this false sense of accuracy when they shouldn't. We used to be more skeptical of QPF and that seemed to create more discussion on the model variables that scored higher like H5 and midlevels. We still discuss that but those maps always seem to go viral everywhere and force their way into the forefront of the discussions. I get it...they look nice and they have some utility, especially when the model uncertainty isn't high...it can highlight favored areas. But in setups (which are frequent) that there is more uncertainty or marginal temp profiles, they can be a distraction. 

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I disagree with this. Perhaps the stats will show this (although from bits and pieces that sometimes get tossed around on Twitter I think overall they haven't become worse).

IMO, the biggest issue is laziness...there seems to be very little focus on meteorology anymore...it's all about rip and reading, focusing on a specific weather chart (whether it be a snow map, SLP, QPF) and running away with it. Social media I think is the biggest blame here...it's easy to post a model snowfall map showing 20-30'' of snow and then all of a sudden its retweeted thousands of times. 

 

Not to spin this off into some sociological multi-faceted study that's filtered through a prism of cynicism or anything ... but I don't even know if laziness is the right adjective.  There's certainly some of that, but I suspect it's mostly 'conditioning'

Put it this way ... in 1980s, there were no such things as word processors that existed outside the human skull.  You processed what words you wanted to write, then, you wrote them down on ledgered paper with a pen.  That was word processing... 

Then the 1990s came around PC's were yet another charming attribute since the Industrial Revolution, that foisted onto humanity and forever changed the way in which we interact and do work and everything really.  By the time I graduated from college, not only could I produce a ten page paper covering the Gilded Era of United States History 103 in one night, ... it was really built into curriculum expectation.  Syllabi began to include lap-tops with word processors... 

See that change?  

I see these younger college graduating meteorologist as being wizards at chart sourcing and consuming of prepared graphics, almost like they were taught to do that, much in the way the changes in word processing took place.  It's just changes in requirements, and as colleges have a responsibility to set students up with the best position to succeed, they are teaching kids clown charts now - something like that. 

I guess I just wonder how much of all that is laziness, and how much of that is that the new generation of Mets are being educated and  programmed differently. 

[WinterWolf]

All true Will.  But take that stuff(Pretty colors and super refined resolution and such) away, and they’re all jumping all over more than they used to.  GFS is total trash now..that’s not better than it was five years ago.  And the Euro isn’t the same as it once was.  
 

But I get it...and Social media is certainly not helping and adding to the issues.  Anyway, I’m glad we have this site, and you pros to explain and teach us less knowledgeable peeps what to look for and how it all works.