Jackstraw Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 12 hours ago, IWXwx said: Just started snowing lightly here, but GIANT dendrites are quickly making everything white. The radar returns down here were some of the highest DBZ I've seen for a liquid/frozen event @ 60-70. I thought for sure as that moved NE into some colder air and into the waning hours an isolated area would get 3-4 in a mini blizzard lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 12z NAM trying for sideways white rain Wed afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 Don't see something this strong coming into the west coast very often, and when it does it tends to be farther north. This is what eventually comes into the Midwest next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 Wednesday wind potential still looks pretty good. Widespread 45-55+ mph potential imo if the low comes in at progged strength and mixing heights are as progged. The eastern shore of Lake Michigan is gonna get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 Takeoffs and landings might be a bit bumpy on Wednesday. This is @ORD on Wed afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic into 65 kt flow at 850 mb. Likely would be high wind warning criteria if this verified exactly as is but we'll see how it evolves in the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Wednesday wind potential still looks pretty good. Widespread 45-55+ mph potential imo if the low comes in at progged strength and mixing heights are as progged. The eastern shore of Lake Michigan is gonna get pounded. D*mn! That west coast system is potent. I'd like to believe it could trend more winter-friendly for us in the Lwr Lakes but the lead system that's going to destroy the lakeshore as you say, doesn't really pull cold air southward like I was hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Ready for the first big snow of the season. If the forecast holds, myb looks bulls-eye for 18" or slightly more. The wet nature of the snow along with 40+ mph winds will likely have the remote road up here impassible for a day or two. Taking care of all my chores today. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Takeoffs and landings might be a bit bumpy on Wednesday. This is @ORD on Wed afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic into 65 kt flow at 850 mb. Likely would be high wind warning criteria if this verified exactly as is but we'll see how it evolves in the next couple days. Most recent NAM is actually a bit more bullish on winds at the 850 mb level than the GFS, which is usually the other way around. Verbatim peak gusts on 06z Euro for LOT CWA are 50-60 mph. On BUFKIT, using the momentum transfer tool, usually like to see mean mixed layer gusts closer to 50 kt and top of the channel winds solidly over 50 kt to feel confident about widespread warning criteria. 06z GFS would be close for probably southwest CWA but more of a high end advisory look elsewhere in the CWA, while 06z NAM looks more supportive of warning criteria for more of the CWA. From these, high end advisory is a lock and warning criteria certainly possible. We'll see how things trend the next 2 days. Possible that the PM forecast package today goes out with a High Wind Watch or tomorrow morning. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Trending to a solid warning criteria event here. Euro falling in line with the NAM shifting things NW. First major accumulation of the year and falling on the start of holiday travel will certainly cause headaches for many in the twin cities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Ready for the first big snow of the season. If the forecast holds, myb looks bulls-eye for 18" or slightly more. The wet nature of the snow along with 40+ mph winds will likely have the remote road up here impassible for a day or two. Taking care of all my chores today. Enjoy it, send pics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 @weatherbo Get the tractor ready 4'+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 57 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: @weatherbo Get the tractor ready 4'+ 12z NAM says 2' of that tue night/wednesday. It's like waiting on Christmas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherbo said: 12z NAM says 2' of that tue night/wednesday. It's like waiting on Christmas. +1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Quote 12z NAM says 2' of that tue night/wednesday. It's like waiting on Christmas. Fantastic! Enjoy that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 The gust maps tend to overdo things in poor mixing regimes, but mixing depths behind the front should be respectable so this could be a reasonable representation. 12z Euro valid at 18z Wed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 The coordination is evident this afternoon as a bunch of offices have rolled out a high wind watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: The coordination is evident this afternoon as a bunch of offices have rolled out a high wind watch. Yeah this is going to be a real nice wind event. I spent 2hrs mulching leaves this afternoon, which will prob be a waste of time since they most likely would have blown into Indiana anyway lol. DVN with some beefy wording in their latest disco. Sustained winds Wednesday look to be 30 to 40 mph with gusts over 50 mph likely. It is very possible that some wind gusts may approach or exceed 60 mph in spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah this is going to be a real nice wind event. I spent 2hrs mulching leaves this afternoon, which will prob be a waste of time since they most likely would have blown into Indiana anyway lol. DVN with some beefy wording in their latest disco. Sustained winds Wednesday look to be 30 to 40 mph with gusts over 50 mph likely. It is very possible that some wind gusts may approach or exceed 60 mph in spots. Totally expect to receive leaves from Illinois on Wednesday. Seems like most factors sort of maximize either side of I-80, so that corridor and maybe about 75-100 miles north and south should get some of the highest gusts. I'm a fan of the diurnal timing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Yeah this is going to be a real nice wind event. I spent 2hrs mulching leaves this afternoon, which will prob be a waste of time since they most likely would have blown into Indiana anyway lol. DVN with some beefy wording in their latest disco. Sustained winds Wednesday look to be 30 to 40 mph with gusts over 50mph likely. It is very possible that some wind gusts may approach orexceed 60 mph in spots. I did the wind forecast for the event for LOT today. We went peak gusts in 45-48 kt range. My current expectation for this event is high confidence in widespread 50+ mph gusts and we'll likely have a few ob sites reach warning criteria (58+). Not certain we'll have widespread verification of warning criteria (county based verification) assuming we go with a warning but frequent gusts in 50-55 mph range will be enough to cause tree damage and power outages and probably blow over some semis on north to south or southwest to northeast interstates. There's probably little functional difference to the public between a high end advisory event and a lower end warning event. One aspect I didn't look too closely at today is cloud base height. With strong cold advection and steep lapse rates we'll certainly develop a stratocu field. If there's something that could lead to underperforming it would be cloud bases under 3kft because the highest winds aloft are generally up around 850 mb. BUFKIT soundings are indicating that we will tap into those top of channel (mixed layer) gusts but if cloud base height is lower that could limit things somewhat to solidly advisory criteria and lower likelihood of warning criteria being met. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Another beating for the WMI shoreline .MARINE... Issued at 423 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019 The only change to the forecast is to upgrade the gale watch to a storm watch for our nearshore zones--otherwise, the forecast is on track. A strong fall storm system will impact the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. Southwesterly winds will increase to gales to 45 kts Wednesday morning and become westerly storm-force winds with gusts at or above 50 kts Wednesday afternoon. *Sustained* westerly gale force winds Wednesday afternoon which will lead to waves of 10 to 15 feet directed directly toward the Lake Michigan shore. The highest winds and waves are expected to occur in a zone from Muskegon to Benton Harbor between 1 PM and 8 PM (the waves will lag a tad later). Note that confidence in this event is high with ECMWF ensemble probabilities of a gale force wind gust at 100% and storm-force wind gust at 80%. Conditions will gradually improve overnight into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Ready to join the winter party! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: I did the wind forecast for the event for LOT today. We went peak gusts in 45-48 kt range. My current expectation for this event is high confidence in widespread 50+ mph gusts and we'll likely have a few ob sites reach warning criteria (58+). Not certain we'll have widespread verification of warning criteria (county based verification) assuming we go with a warning but frequent gusts in 50-55 mph range will be enough to cause tree damage and power outages and probably blow over some semis on north to south or southwest to northeast interstates. There's probably little functional difference to the public between a high end advisory event and a lower end warning event. One aspect I didn't look too closely at today is cloud base height. With strong cold advection and steep lapse rates we'll certainly develop a stratocu field. If there's something that could lead to underperforming it would be cloud bases under 3kft because the highest winds aloft are generally up around 850 mb. BUFKIT soundings are indicating that we will tap into those top of channel (mixed layer) gusts but if cloud base height is lower that could limit things somewhat to solidly advisory criteria and lower likelihood of warning criteria being met. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Check out the wind fields in central IL at the end of the 21z RAP. Yikes, lol. Not really in its more useful range yet though. And good point about clouds potentially cutting into the top end potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 50-65mph wind gusts look likely across the area both with the line of showers/'t'storms along the front tomorrow night, then again on the backside on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 Check out the afd out of Medford, OR in regards to the big storm set to come onshore. Really something. October 1962 is pretty much the benchmark storm for the west coast. This is not that but it's impressive enough. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 332 PM PST Mon Nov 25 2019 .SHORT TERM...Today will be the calm before the storm. A rapidly rapidly deepening "bomb" cyclone will take aim for the Southern Oregon Coast on Tuesday. The main message today is to prepare today ahead of this storm and if you have travel plans, now would be the time to do it. Weather conditions will deteriorate rapidly on Tuesday with strong winds and heavy snow impacts expected over much of the area. This low is unprecedented in its strength and track. It`s also historic because storms of this magnitude have not been observed on this track in the last 40 years or more! Keep in mind, the location of the highest winds will largely depend on the exact track of the low. Small shifts in the track will make a difference in which areas see very strong winds. So have a way to stay up to date on the forecast and watch for updates. Overall, the majority of the models and ensembles bring a 974 mb low into the Curry Coast on Tuesday, then move the low onshore near the California-Oregon border Tuesday evening and inland over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Ahead of the low center, expect very strong winds at the coast and over some inland western areas along with heavy snow for the mountain passes (including Sexton Summit, Siskiyou Summit, pass over the Southern Oregon Cascades, and areas near Mount Shasta). As the low moves inland, expect wrap around showers to affect the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Snow levels will lower to some western valley floors during this time bringing the potential for valley snow impacts. High winds and moderate to heavy snow will be the main impacts from this storm. Please see details below. -Petrucelli WIND...Low pressure out around 48N and 146W will rapidly intensify tonight into Tuesday. The pressure of this developing storm this evening at 4 pm PST will be around 1020 mb. The storm will "bomb" out, with the pressure lowering to below 980 mb by 4 pm PST on Tuesday. It will move to a position near 42N and 125W, just off the SW coast of Oregon (or about 50-100 miles west of Gold Beach). This is a greater than 40 mb drop in just 24 hours. A "bomb cyclone" is defined as a 24 mb drop in 24 hours, so this one is almost double that and wind impacts will be felt across the entire area. What makes this storm unique is the trajectory that it will take as it deepens and moves inland. Rather than a deepening system moving from SW to NE inside 130W, which typically bring our strongest coastal and inland wind storms in SW Oregon and northern California (and onshore gradients ALL along the coast), this one will be moving in from NW to SE as it moves onshore Tuesday evening. This will focus the core of the strongest winds (and onshore gradient) for the headlands/beaches from Cape Blanco southward. Winds in those places will likely gust in excess of 75 mph with gusts in excess of 100 mph possible at exposed areas and headlands. This is a dangerous storm and we don`t want to downplay the winds for areas farther north, but an easterly (offshore) gradient usually results in the winds getting blocked somewhat by the terrain. We are still expecting gusts of 45 to 55 mph at North Bend, but that`s the reason it should be somewhat lower there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Other than parking lot snow piles, the record snow from 2 weeks ago has completely melted. There has not been a torch at all, just more typical November weather, which really is a nod to climo and how early it really is in the snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 00z Euro looks sort of peculiar in its handling of the surface low. It has it deepening to 980 mb at 18z Wednesday and then fills to 994 mb just 6 hours later. That kind of deepening will probably have some ramifications with the wind output but will see in a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 looks like the western UP is gonna get smoked. Even a blizzard warning issued for winds on the tip of the Keweenaw. My point forecast has 30" in it, with the morning AFD hinting at the possibility of even more right in this favored area. I expect to be completely snowed in for a bit. CR 510 is the main road up to my area and it isn't in the best shape to begin with and after the blizzard last February, my road was one lane for 2 weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Bo, you are making our forecast look like child’s play. Enjoy the fresh snow and stay safe! Nice to be in the local/regional bullseye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 31 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Bo, you are making our forecast look like child’s play. Enjoy the fresh snow and stay safe! Nice to be in the local/regional bullseye. You guys are due to get smoked, and I have zero issues watching a big storm hit MSP in November. Enjoy it, and post some pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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