yoda Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Rebekah Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 PM AST Wed Oct 30 2019 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 40.7W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Rebekah. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Rebekah was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 40.7 West. Rebekah is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h) and is forecast to turn toward the east-northeast tonight. A turn back toward the east and east-southeast is anticipated on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated for the next day or so. Gradual weakening is anticipated thereafter, and Rebekah is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rebekah is forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone when it moves near the Azores in a day or so. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for hazard information in the Azores related to Rebekah. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 PM AST Wed Oct 30 2019 Cloudiness and showers associated with a small low pressure system embedded within a larger non-tropical low over the north-central Atlantic have become better organized during the day. The cyclone has a broken convective band that wraps about halfway around its eastern semicircle, with a small area of central convection near its center. The cloud tops within the convection are not particularly cold and the system is co-located with a large upper-level low, so it is initially designated as a subtropical cyclone. The intensity is assessed as 40 kt based primarily on earlier ASCAT data. It is worth mentioning that the system also has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, since the radius of maximum winds is not very large and the system has some moderate central convection. Much like Pablo just a few days ago, Rebekah is currently rotating around a larger non-tropical low pressure system. The initial motion estimate is 080/11 kt, but an east-northeastward motion is expected later tonight. The track model spread is larger than normal and confidence in the track forecast is low, though most of the models generally show Rebekah turning back toward the east by early Friday, followed by a turn toward the east-southeast until it dissipates later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rebekah is forecast to approach the western-most Azores early Friday as a post-tropical/extratropical cyclone. The intensity guidance unanimously forecasts that Rebekah will change little in strength during the next 24 h, though given the small size of the cyclone, some short-term fluctuations are possible tonight. Most of the dynamical models then forecast that Rebekah's convection will decrease substantially by early Friday, likely due to a combination of colder SSTs and unfavorable upper-level winds. The cyclone is therefore forecast to become post-tropical around that time, and gradual weakening is expected. Rebekah will likely dissipate by the weekend, if not sooner. Since Rebekah is not currently forecast to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone when it nears the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 38.3N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 39.0N 38.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 39.9N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 39.8N 31.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1800Z 38.9N 26.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Here's the cone - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 5 am update (still expected to be post-tropical in a day or so) - Quote 000 WTNT34 KNHC 310833 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Rebekah Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 AM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.7N 36.7W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Rebekah. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Rebekah was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 36.7 West. The storm is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn back toward the east and east-southeast is anticipated tonight and on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin by this afternoon or tonight. Rebekah should become a post-tropical cyclone by this afternoon or evening. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rebekah is forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone when it moves near the Azores in a day or so. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for hazard information in the Azores related to Rebekah, which can found at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart Quick Links and Additional R Quote 000 WTNT44 KNHC 310833 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 AM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 Rebekah's cloud pattern has eroded significantly since the previous advisory and only a narrow band of fragmented convection remains in the northeastern quadrant. There are no signs of any upper-level anticyclonic outflow, so the cyclone will retain subtropical status. Earlier ASCAT-A/B/C overpasses indicated several 38-39 kt surface wind vectors in the southern semicircle and given that Rebekah is now moving at a faster forward speed, the intensity remains at 40 kt despite the degraded convective pattern. The initial motion estimate is 065/18 kt. Rebekah is forecast to move east-northeastward to eastward around the southeastern periphery of a larger non-tropical low pressure system for the next day or two before dissipating by 48 hours. The model guidance has shifted northward significantly and the official forecast has been moved in that direction as well, but not as far north nor as fast as the model consensus, lying closer to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Rebekah will be moving over cooler waters that are less than 20 deg C and into a stronger vertical wind shear regime by 12 h and beyond. This combination of unfavorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to steady weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone in 24 h or less, with dissipation expected by 48 h. Although the center of Rebekah is expected to pass north of the Azores, those islands could still receive gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, especially on the southward-facing slopes of elevated terrain. Since Rebekah is not expected to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone when it nears the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 39.7N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 12H 31/1800Z 40.6N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 24H 01/0600Z 40.6N 29.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1800Z 40.3N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Rebekah Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 ...REBEKAH LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.7N 35.3W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Rebekah. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Rebekah was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 35.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). An eastward turn with some increase in forward speed is anticipated by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The storm should weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone by this evening or early tomorrow. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rebekah is forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone when it moves near the Azores in a day or so. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for hazard information in the Azores related to Rebekah, which can found at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 The storm has lost organization since yesterday with only a skeletal curved band west and north of the center. However, ASCAT just came in with 35-40 kt winds, so the initial wind speed will stay 40 kt. Weakening is anticipated today as the low moves over cool waters and into a convergent environment aloft. All of the guidance shows any remaining convection dissipating by this evening, so the storm will likely be in the graveyard in about 12 h. A general eastward track is forecast until Rebekah decomposes into a trough sometime tomorrow, at best becoming a wave along an approaching cold front. Since Rebekah is not expected to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone near the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 40.7N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 41.1N 32.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 01/1200Z 41.0N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 5 pm update (expected to go post-tropical overnight) - Quote 334 WTNT34 KNHC 312031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Rebekah Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 PM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 ...REBEKAH EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.1N 33.5W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM NW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Rebekah was located near latitude 41.1 North, longitude 33.5 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion is expected through tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The storm should weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone by this evening or early tomorrow. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rebekah is forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone when it moves near the Azores overnight. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for hazard information in the Azores related to Rebekah, which can found at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake Quote 318 WTNT44 KNHC 312032 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 PM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 Rebekah continues to have a small band of moderate-to-deep convection around the center, although the overall cloud pattern is becoming stretched from northeast to southwest. The initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt. All of the models keep stretching Rebekah out overnight and show it degenerating into a trough within 24 h while it moves eastward. A convergent environment and the cyclone's movement over cool waters are expected to offset any cooling aloft which would promote convection. Since Rebekah is not expected to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone near the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 41.1N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 41.2N 29.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Rebekah was post-tropical as of the 5 am update - Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Rebekah Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 AM AST Fri Nov 01 2019 ...REBEKAH BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.6N 29.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rebekah was located near latitude 40.6 North, longitude 29.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate this afternoon or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Hazard information for the Azores can be found in products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN Quote ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Post-Tropical Cyclone Rebekah Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 AM AST Fri Nov 01 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that Rebekah has degenerated to a remnant low as the circulation remains void of deep convection. In addition, the system is starting to merge with a weak frontal system over the northeastern Atlantic. Re-development of deep convection appears unlikely, and the remnants of Rebekah are expected to weaken to a trough between 12-24 h. The initial motion is 095/17, and a slightly faster eastward motion is expected until the system dissipates. This is the last advisory issued on Rebekah by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. Hazard information for the Azores can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 40.6N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 01/1800Z 40.2N 24.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 What a dank system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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