psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 On 11/1/2019 at 2:48 AM, Roger Smith said: BWI _ 20.5" DCA _ 16.1" IAD _ 27.3" RIC _ 10.5" SBY _ 12.5" (could be adjusting this, at the moment I think the sweet spot for northeast US snowfall will be a bit north of your region but cold air will be available at least to mid-Jan and there is probably some chance of a big snowstorm before the pattern shifts to a milder second half of winter) _ some similarity to 95-96 so can't rule out that sort of outcome yet. A very good analogue seems to be 1971-72, how did you fare that winter? About avg in most places but it all came from a storm in November and then a weird late February rain to snow storm that was all gone a day later. In between it was a barren wasteland for snow. I doubt many would enjoy a repeat of that. Even I would come away somewhat disappointed by that despite “decent” numbers on paper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 10/29/2019 at 3:21 PM, WxWatcher007 said: BWI: 2.7” DCA: -231.6” IAD: 21.1” RIC: 23.2” Tiebreaker SBY: 78.3” Somehow, this reminds me of that old Saturday Night Live skit "Chicago Super Fans", where these 3 guys (I think George Wendt of "Cheers" was on that as a guest?) betting on what the Bears' score will be. One of them predicted something like "Bears 72, Lions -28"...and another asked how you can get a negative score in football...to which the reply was "Hey, Ditka will find a way!!" So with that...hey, DCA will find a way!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 10/30/2019 at 9:54 AM, psuhoffman said: What if there is no tomorrow? There wasn’t one today! A'la "Kung Fu Panda"..."Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That's why it's called the present!" Sorry to go all zen there on your humor, haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/5/2019 at 4:27 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: Our summer contest winner is hoping to extend his hot streak (pardon the pun). Update. I've come to my senses now. BWI: 16.4" DCA: 14.3" IAD: 18.9" RIC: 5.9" Tiebreaker (SBY): 3.8" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 14 hours ago, mattie g said: Since we're getting 8-12" next week, we're going to see a lot of revisions in here. What’s always been funny over the years is watching the revisions back and forth throughout the month. In mid-November the hype builds and the weenie revisions start. Then later in the month the pattern inevitably goes to hell and you start seeing all the cliff-jumping revisions back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I am halfway up a mountain within sight of the BC-WA border and we got some snow in late September (quite a lot at higher elevations) and it has been almost bone dry since then. There is still a very thin snow cover on the local mountains from that dumping but nothing below 5500' asl. I have never seen such a dry pattern as we are in here at this time of year. Think it must mean that weird snowfall anomalies lie ahead, and by definition that means you get snow because zero snow there is not a weird snowfall anomaly. Will be boosting my earlier predictions slightly, just feels to me like one big storm is inevitable for your region with the strength of cold air masses combined with no cut off low tendencies in the southwest (meaning it won't end up wasted over the southern Rockies). Even so, expecting some very mild weather in the mix so this one big storm concept will have to be well timed and worth the pain of the other weeks of anomalous warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 My prediction is as follows: BWI: 52 inches DCA: 31 inches IAD: 39 inches RIC: 12 inches Tiebreaker (SBY): 16 inches 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 On 10/29/2019 at 12:17 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: It's time for the 5th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! Everyone is encouraged to play- including lurkers, new members and people outside the region! You are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) for the four major airports: BWI, DCA, IAD and RIC. For the tiebreaker, you will choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury (SBY) or Lynchburg (LYH). Please choose only one- in the event of the tiebreaker, the difference at the airport you chose will be compared with the difference at the airport your opponent(s) chose. The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports (this link explains the calculation in more detail, for anyone who needs clarification: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50428-mid-atlantic-winter-2017-18-snowfall-contest/?do=findComment&comment=4656575 ). Please use the following format when posting your forecast: BWI: DCA: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): The deadline for entries is Saturday, November 30 at 11:59pm. You are welcome to edit your forecast as many times as you want until the deadline. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners: 2015-16: @Shadowzone 2016-17: @Stormpc 2017-18: @olafminesaw 2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc) Good luck everyone! You should include the airport averages in the original post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 BWI: 22.8" DCA: 18.5" IAD: 24.5" RIC: 16.9" Tiebreaker SBY: 5.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 New Method this year. "Alexa, give me a random number between 0 and 40..." BWI: 10.0 DCA: 22.0 IAD: 9.0 RIC: 19.0 The Breaker SBY: 33.0...congrats SBY! You can thank Amazon I guess it could happen, sharp cutoffs to the west and north = DCA, RIC AND SBY jackpotvilles! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 BWI:16.5 DCA:13 IAD:19 RIC:8.2 Tie SBY:10.6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 16 hours ago, attml said: My prediction is as follows: BWI: 52 inches DCA: 31 inches IAD: 39 inches RIC: 12 inches Tiebreaker (SBY): 16 inches You're back- we missed you last year! I always love your Calls With Balls™ (although RIC is getting kinda shafted). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 BWI:16 DCA:12 IAD: 18 RIC: 7 Tie SBY: 9.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 27 players so far- let’s get 100+ people playing! Lurkers, new people, etc. -don’t be afraid to join in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I’ll definitely have an entry but want to know how much November snow we have first 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 BWI: 28" DCA: 22" IAD: 35" RIC: 18" Tiebreaker (SBY): 20" MBY: 33" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 BWI: 27.5 DCA:18.5 IAD:30.5 RIC:16.0 SBY: 13.5 OKV: 35.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 On 11/10/2019 at 4:03 PM, attml said: My prediction is as follows: BWI: 52 inches DCA: 31 inches IAD: 39 inches RIC: 12 inches Tiebreaker (SBY): 16 inches That BWI number is almost as high as Maryland’s avg points allowed this fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 BWI - 31.5” DCA - 21.7” IAD - 37.5” RIC - 9.1” SBY - 7.3” Stephens City - 3.2” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 A reminder to everyone that this contest WILL include the 0.9" that has fallen at RIC today and the 0.5" that has fallen at SBY today (if you chose SBY as a tiebreaker). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 52 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: BWI - 31.5” DCA - 21.7” IAD - 37.5” RIC - 9.1” OKV - 41-8” Stephens City - 3.2” Tiebreaker must be SBY or LYH. OKV does not measure snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 55 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Tiebreaker must be SBY or LYH. OKV does not measure snowfall. Changed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 BWI - 36.5" DCA - 25.3" IAD - 42.8" RIC - 13.4" SBY - 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 My swag: BWI: 18 DCA: 15 IAD: 21 RIC: 10 Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): SBY 8 ((and hoping for much less)) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 WAAAAAAAAAAAAG BWI: 25.3 DCA: 17.6 IAD: 29.2 RIC: 16.9 Tiebreaker (LYH): 30.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 BWI: 34 DCA: 20 IAD: 37 RIC: 16 Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): SBY: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 BWI: 19.7" DCA: 14.8" IAD: 25.4" RIC: 13.6" Tiebreaker (LYH): 22.1" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 BWI: 0.3" DCA: 0.1" IAD: 0.7" RIC: 0.00001 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: BWI: 0.3" DCA: 0.1" IAD: 0.7" RIC: 0.00001 You already busted at Richmond by three orders of magnitude 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: You already busted at Richmond by three orders of magnitude The rest of the winter will be so bad they will record a negative number. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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