Low Topped Convective Potential Thursday, October 31, 2019 - Friday, November 1, 2019

[Spanks45]

Already down to 44 degrees, wind was impressive. Schools are closed, so I would assume trees and powerlines down everywhere. 

[Torch Tiger]

Only 6,500 MA Neversource customers in the dark, that's a low # for them

[CoastalWx]

Good size limb down at neighbors, but drfts of leaves ftl.

[tamarack]

42 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Up  here on the Maine coast it wasn't as bad as the last one, but there are 75,000 CMP customers without power.  The outages are distributed more throughout the state rather than focusing on the coastal communities like the last one.  

Power went off about 5 minutes after my alarm (battery-powered) sounded at 5 AM.  Route 2 and points south had power but all was dark north of the blinker light at the Sandy River bridge in town.  Couple of trees partly in Rt 27 southbound lane (Belgrade, Sidney), and the Brunswick public radio classical channel was off the air - got my music from the WVL channel.  Cocorahs observer from Belmont (near midcoast Belfast) reported 68 mph gust and BHB had 59 at 7 AM.

Getting too old for this lights-out stuff; Generator guy comes to scope out our place on the 11th.

[powderfreak]

This is nuts.  

Worst flooding since Irene, in fact might be worse in Stowe than Irene.  

Saw video from my wife’s coworker of RT 108 washed out at Topnotch.  You can’t get to the mountain from town.  

There is major flooding going on per BTV.  

[powderfreak]

Wettest October on record at BTV... beating the 101 year record from 1918 by almost 2”.  

CLIMATE... Several long-standing rainfall records have been broken. At Burlington, a new daily record rainfall for October 31st was set yesterday with 3.3" of rain, beating the old record of 1.16" on 10/31/1894. This is the second highest one day rainfall total at Burlington in the month of October (record is 4.19" 10/6/1932). We also observed the wettest October on record at Burlington, with 8.50" last month. The old October monthly rainfall record was 6.75" in 1918. &&

Will see widespread MODERATE category flooding, with localized major flooding forecast later today for the Missisquoi at East Berkshire and North Troy, as well as the Winooksi at Essex Jct. Significant street flooding will also take several hours to subside in downtown Burlington this AM. Owing to the rapidly changing nature of water levels over the next several hours, please refer to updated flood warnings/statements for the latest details.

[CoastalWx]

How much rain?

[weatherwiz]

This event and the event a few weeks ago should not be compared in the slightest. Completely different animals and processes involved. 

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This is nuts.  

Worst flooding since Irene, in fact might be worse in Stowe than Irene.  

Saw video from my wife’s coworker of RT 108 washed out at Topnotch.  You can’t get to the mountain from town.  

There is major flooding going on per BTV.  

From the WCAX web site.  Lamoille County seems pretty hard hit

https://www.wcax.com/content/news/Heavy-rain-outages-reported-throughout-state-564208281.html

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, metagraphica said:

 

Yep, we lost power here right at 3:03. Ever source estimates noontime to restore. Fun stuff.


.

 

That’s like exactly when ours went out. Right after the squall line . During the strong west wind burst 

[powderfreak]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How much rain?

Biggest rain event since Irene.  

Stowe CoCoRAHS had 3.79” storm total.  Most in about 4 hours.  

This is why you can’t get to the ski area in Stowe:

 

Lots of this sort of stuff being posted... 

 

[mreaves]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How much rain?

Got this from a local TV web site

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Got this from a local TV web site

 

Stowe, Hyde Park, Morrisville, Eden, all with a lot of impassable roads.  

Worst flash flood event in memory from the obs and pics.  Glad I’m not there honestly haha.  Power out too I hear.

Eden is completely cut off in all directions.  

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Stowe, Hyde Park, Morrisville, Eden, all with a lot of impassable roads.  

Worst flash flood event in memory.  

Eden is completely cut off in all directions.  

My colleague's husband is a Stowe PD officer and was called in early this morning.  He says Stowe is bad right now.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

My colleague's husband is a Stowe PD officer and was called in early this morning.  He says Stowe is bad right now.

4.06” in Underhill.  

These amounts are really only 1-2” less than Irene in these parts and it took 18 hours in that storm.... not like a few hours in this one.  

Irene also had vegetation trying to suck up   water...this was pure run-off.  

Mansfield could’ve easily been 4-5” rain in this all running off into Stowe overnight.  

You can’t dump widespread rain like that into the topography and not have major issues.

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, mreaves said:

From the WCAX web site.  Lamoille County seems pretty hard hit

https://www.wcax.com/content/news/Heavy-rain-outages-reported-throughout-state-564208281.html

 

This stuff is insane!   Water almost over cars in south side of Stowe. 

The Moscow Bypass by the Pizza Joint:

[CoastalWx]

Wow. Holy crap. How’s that brook near you, Scott?

[StormSurge]

Pretty tame over here. A couple of branches down & 0.17" in gauge.

[Lava Rock]

3 hours ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Up  here on the Maine coast it wasn't as bad as the last one, but there are 75,000 CMP customers without power.  The outages are distributed more throughout the state rather than focusing on the coastal communities like the last one.  

Power out at home. I was surprised it didn't go out earlier.

[Lava Rock]

31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

4.06” in Underhill.  

These amounts are really only 1-2” less than Irene in these parts and it took 18 hours in that storm.... not like a few hours in this one.  

Irene also had vegetation trying to suck up   water...this was pure run-off.  

Mansfield could’ve easily been 4-5” rain in this all running off into Stowe overnight.  

You can’t dump widespread rain like that into the topography and not have major issues.

there's goes all your qpf for the winter

[Lava Rock]

was this frcst to be this bad? Seems like an overperformer.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

there's goes all your qpf for the winter

Jeffersonville VT on the north side of Mansfield... yikes.

[tamarack]

Hope this didn't blow out a bunch of ski trails in the northern Greens.   Maine got all the wind but only the northernmost tip got serious RA.

[Damage In Tolland]

Here’s our power outage FTW . #damageisgreat

[CoastalWx]

Looks like 54mph damage.

[mreaves]

Just heard an unconfirmed report of someone being killed in Stowe by a tree.  

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow. Holy crap. How’s that brook near you, Scott?

We are ok, we are only 15 feet above the river but if it go to our place the entire town would be gone.  

The river out back that I swim with the dog is the same one that flooded those cars and Pizza place...the river bed is just more contained by us.  

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Just heard an unconfirmed report of someone being killed in Stowe by a tree.  

Jesus.  

The Lamoille River is still rising and it’s flow is beating the high water mark for Irene!  

So this event is pumping more flow than even Irene now. 

Current...

 

Irene: 

[powderfreak]

Sterling Valley on the Stowe/Morrisville line... 

[powderfreak]

This house is done.