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Low Topped Convective Potential Thursday, October 31, 2019 - Friday, November 1, 2019


weatherwiz
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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Box is saying “widespread power outages Expected” for us here....ya I’ll take the under on that.    
 

Unless this is one of the exceptions with regard to wind here in the interior.  Time will tell, but  I’m skeptical on their warnings and wording for this area. 

The NAMNEST (anyways) has widespread 50+ knot gusts ahead of the line. If that were to verify there would probably be a quite a bit of power outages. (although not sure I'd say widespread but I guess it depends on what is meant by widespread lol) 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

The NAMNEST (anyways) has widespread 50+ knot gusts ahead of the line. If that were to verify there would probably be a quite a bit of power outages. (although not sure I'd say widespread but I guess it depends on what is meant by widespread lol) 

Ya...if that were to verify I agree.   But my point is I’m quite skeptical it verifies.  I’m going lower and less impactful...cuz that’s the norm here with things like that.  

I know there are exceptions...maybe this is the time? But I’m thinking not a big deal as of now.    I guess we’ll see? 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ya...if that were to verify I agree.   But my point is I’m quite skeptical it verifies.  I’m going lower and less impactful...cuz that’s the norm here with things like that.  

I know there are exceptions...maybe this is the time? But I’m thinking not a big deal as of now.    I guess we’ll see? 

There are certainly reasons to be on the skeptical side for us. For one I don't think we'll have the instability to work with like they will to our southwest. Now, these events aren't driven by instability, but when talking about the potential for higher-end type severe instability becomes a bit more important. 

With that said, there is enough instability present aloft to where if we can tap into that this will perform. The set-ups like this which do perform though typically have steeper lapse rates involved (assisting in momentum transport and of course instability). 

One thing to watch too though is does this line outrun the upper support or does it sort of move along with it. That's a pretty significant MLJ streak and that could certainly do wonders. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There are certainly reasons to be on the skeptical side for us. For one I don't think we'll have the instability to work with like they will to our southwest. Now, these events aren't driven by instability, but when talking about the potential for higher-end type severe instability becomes a bit more important. 

With that said, there is enough instability present aloft to where if we can tap into that this will perform. The set-ups like this which do perform though typically have steeper lapse rates involved (assisting in momentum transport and of course instability). 

One thing to watch too though is does this line outrun the upper support or does it sort of move along with it. That's a pretty significant MLJ streak and that could certainly do wonders. 

Great info Wiz...thanks.   I guess we’ll see how it’s looking in 4-5 hours.  Maybe this performs for us???  

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Great info Wiz...thanks.   I guess we’ll see how it’s looking in 4-5 hours.  Maybe this performs for us???  

I think we are on the extreme eastward  extent of where this could perform. I would think this thing collapses pretty quickly...unless the dynamics can maintain it. With such poor low-level lapse rates though it might be tough to really draw down dome good winds...even with a limited inversion. 

The HRRR hasn't been as aggressive but still advertises widespread 40-50 knots gusts...still quite solid I suppose lol

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WOAH

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Maryland
     Pennsylvania
     Northern Virginia
     Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 255 PM until Midnight
     EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
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