Low Topped Convective Potential Thursday, October 31, 2019 - Friday, November 1, 2019

[OceanStWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Why is the valley warned but not east of here?  What time will the line come through? 

BOX is expecting stronger winds to funnel up the valley.

[weatherwiz]

They are going to absolutely rip off the lakes overnight. That's a pretty steep lapse rate

[WinterWolf]

Box is saying “widespread power outages Expected” for us here....ya I’ll take the under on that.    
 

Unless this is one of the exceptions with regard to wind here in the interior.  Time will tell, but  I’m skeptical on their warnings and wording for this area. 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Box is saying “widespread power outages Expected” for us here....ya I’ll take the under on that.    
 

Unless this is one of the exceptions with regard to wind here in the interior.  Time will tell, but  I’m skeptical on their warnings and wording for this area. 

The NAMNEST (anyways) has widespread 50+ knot gusts ahead of the line. If that were to verify there would probably be a quite a bit of power outages. (although not sure I'd say widespread but I guess it depends on what is meant by widespread lol) 

[Cyclone-68]

Dr Dews might be right. Sounds like this could be more interesting than the last wind event regionally 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

The NAMNEST (anyways) has widespread 50+ knot gusts ahead of the line. If that were to verify there would probably be a quite a bit of power outages. (although not sure I'd say widespread but I guess it depends on what is meant by widespread lol) 

Ya...if that were to verify I agree.   But my point is I’m quite skeptical it verifies.  I’m going lower and less impactful...cuz that’s the norm here with things like that.  

I know there are exceptions...maybe this is the time? But I’m thinking not a big deal as of now.    I guess we’ll see? 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ya...if that were to verify I agree.   But my point is I’m quite skeptical it verifies.  I’m going lower and less impactful...cuz that’s the norm here with things like that.  

I know there are exceptions...maybe this is the time? But I’m thinking not a big deal as of now.    I guess we’ll see? 

There are certainly reasons to be on the skeptical side for us. For one I don't think we'll have the instability to work with like they will to our southwest. Now, these events aren't driven by instability, but when talking about the potential for higher-end type severe instability becomes a bit more important. 

With that said, there is enough instability present aloft to where if we can tap into that this will perform. The set-ups like this which do perform though typically have steeper lapse rates involved (assisting in momentum transport and of course instability). 

One thing to watch too though is does this line outrun the upper support or does it sort of move along with it. That's a pretty significant MLJ streak and that could certainly do wonders. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There are certainly reasons to be on the skeptical side for us. For one I don't think we'll have the instability to work with like they will to our southwest. Now, these events aren't driven by instability, but when talking about the potential for higher-end type severe instability becomes a bit more important. 

With that said, there is enough instability present aloft to where if we can tap into that this will perform. The set-ups like this which do perform though typically have steeper lapse rates involved (assisting in momentum transport and of course instability). 

One thing to watch too though is does this line outrun the upper support or does it sort of move along with it. That's a pretty significant MLJ streak and that could certainly do wonders. 

Great info Wiz...thanks.   I guess we’ll see how it’s looking in 4-5 hours.  Maybe this performs for us???  

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Great info Wiz...thanks.   I guess we’ll see how it’s looking in 4-5 hours.  Maybe this performs for us???  

I think we are on the extreme eastward  extent of where this could perform. I would think this thing collapses pretty quickly...unless the dynamics can maintain it. With such poor low-level lapse rates though it might be tough to really draw down dome good winds...even with a limited inversion. 

The HRRR hasn't been as aggressive but still advertises widespread 40-50 knots gusts...still quite solid I suppose lol

[weatherwiz]

Storm report map is quite active already. 

 

could this end up being a serial derecho? 

[weatherwiz]

Here's a good wind producer in WV

[weatherwiz]

New tornado watch into a large part of PA

[weatherwiz]

WOAH

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Maryland
     Pennsylvania
     Northern Virginia
     Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 255 PM until Midnight
     EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible

[Torch Tiger]

gonna be a wild night

[Torch Tiger]

Like I mentioned yesterday, It looks like the models did underestimate instability a bit further SW. Slight risk to NY

[Bostonseminole]

brought my pumpkins indoors.. expecting a windy night

[Damage In Tolland]

This should be one for the ages. The Great Helloween SuperDerecho SNE 2019

[Torch Tiger]

Sleepless night for a lot of folks

 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Sleepless night for a lot of folks

 

The sounds of snapping , breaking , and crashes on roofs.. many will lay awake wide eyed 

[dendrite]

I can't wait for my 5min uber downpour with a 25mph gust.

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, dendrite said:

I can't wait for my 5min uber downpour with a 25mph gust.

98% of fine lines have a lull in wind..heh

[Torch Tiger]

I hope not but watch us gust 50+ well ahead of the front and die down as it passes ;/

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I hope not but watch us gust 50+ well ahead of the front and die down as it passes ;/

Well in these things the winds are always just out ahead of the line. It becomes quite stable in the heavy rain 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Winds are pretty strong here already.  Candy corn scattered everywhere 

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well in these things the winds are always just out ahead of the line. It becomes quite stable in the heavy rain 

Even out ahead can be pretty dead, too. My expectations are definitely in check but there is potential. Already 35mph here

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Even out ahead can be pretty dead, too. My expectations are definitely in check but there is potential. Already 35mph here

Yup potential is certainly there 

[Damage In Tolland]

This could be a pretty substantial blackout in SNE where better winds are 

[Torch Tiger]

Restoration and cleanup crews may be busy into the weekend. Hope everyone is well rested.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This could be a pretty substantial blackout in SNE where better winds are 

Oh ya, Maybe a quarter million without power Later tonight.....? 

[Torch Tiger]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup potential is certainly there 

It would be a win in itself to get some spc mcd luv later.