November 2019 temperature forecast contest and winter snowfall contest

[Roger Smith]

The 2019 temperature forecast contest approaches its conclusion with this second-last month ... predict temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010 normal values) in F deg for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

and also, as in previous years, there's an independent second contest to enter, winter snowfall which applies to all the same locations except ATL, IAH and PHX, for those, we substitute in DTW, BUF and BTV. Entrants should predict to nearest tenth of inch the winter 2019-2020 snowfall at the nine locations

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ BTV _ SEA

including what may have already fallen at some locations, through to the end of May (or if necessary June 2020, the official season runs July 1 to June 30 but in practice is September to May). 

You don't have to enter the temperature contest to take part in the snowfall contest. But you can enter both either at the same time, or by later entry into the snowfall portion.

Deadlines for the temperature forecast contest will be the usual on-time deadline of 06z on 1st, with late penalties thereafter.

For the snowfall contest, you have basically most of November with the deadline falling on the 22nd. I will send any temperature forecast entrants a reminder if they don't produce a snowfall contest entry by Nov 20th. 

 

Good luck !! 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA:  +0.8

NYC:  +1.0

BOS:  +0.8

ORD:  +0.4

ATL:  +0.7

 IAH:  +1.2

DEN:  +1.6

PHX:  +2.6

SEA:  +1.3

Snowfall 

DCA :  15.8

NYC : 31.2

 BOS : 47.7

 ORD : 42.2

 DTW : 52.6

BUF : 91.3

DEN : 61.1

 BTV : 88.8

 SEA :  10.4

 

 

[Tom]

DCA:  -0.3

NYC:  -0.6

BOS:  -0.7

ORD:  -1.1

ATL:  -0.9

 IAH:  -0.1

DEN:  -0.2

PHX:  +1.7

SEA:  +0.9

Snowfall 

DCA :  27.6

NYC : 48.1

 BOS : 59.8

 ORD : 44.5

 DTW : 39. 8

BUF : 97.6

DEN : 68.6

 BTV : 85.1

 SEA :  4.8

[wxallannj]

DCA:  -0.3

NYC:  -0.2

BOS:  -0.5

ORD:  -1.5

ATL:  +1.2

 IAH:  +0.8

DEN:  +-0.9

PHX:  +2.2

SEA:  +0.3

Snowfall 

DCA :  22.4

NYC : 33.5

 BOS : 44.7

 ORD : 38.9

 DTW : 38. 8

BUF : 69.6

DEN : 41.3

 BTV : 79.4

 SEA :  7.2

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.5      0.5      -0.1       -1.7     0.1     -0.7        1.2      2.0      2.1 

 

Snowfall (11/21):

DCA: 10.0"

NYC: 23.5"

BOS: 36.0"

ORD: 30.0"

DTW: 35.0"

BUF: 110.0"

DEN: 83.0"

BTV: 90.0"

SEA: 6.5"

[bkviking]

DCA:  -0.2

NYC:  -0.2

BOS:  -0.3

ORD:  -1.2

ATL:  +1.6

 IAH:  +0.4

DEN:  + 0.5

PHX:  +2.0

SEA:  +1.0

Snowfall 

DCA :  19

NYC : 36

 BOS : 51

 ORD : 42

 DTW : 29

BUF : 84

DEN : 55

 BTV : 77

 SEA :  8

 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.3     -1.5      -0.8      -2.2    -2.1     0.1         -3.0      0.8      0.2 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.0    -1.0     -1.0       -1.5        1.0    1.0           0.5      1.0       0.5 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ BTV _ SEA

12"      24"     36"         48"       67"     105"       45"     90"       14"

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -1.6

NYC:  -1.8

BOS:  -1.2

ORD:  -1.9

ATL:  -1.2

IAH:  -1.3

DEN:  -0.9

PHX:  +1.5

SEA:  +1.6

Snow later

EDITED for snow totals 11/18

DCA:  20.6

NYC:  42.5

BOS:  54.1

ORD:  50.6

DTW:  52.7

BUF:  100.9

DEN:  69.8

BTV:  97.4

SEA:   9.6

[Roger Smith]

_________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL/DTW _ IAH/BUF ___ DEN _ PHX/BTV _ SEA

temp ____ -2.7 _ -2.7 _ -3.0 ___ -3.5 __ -1.8 ______ -0.8 _________-0.5 ___ +1.0 _____ -0.5

snow ____ 15.5 _ 38.5 _ 55.8 __ 60.5 __ 60.2 _____ 102.5 _____ 109.7 ____ 110.5 __ 7.5

(enter snow or edit your entries to 22nd deadline)

[Roger Smith]

Forecasts for November 2019

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL_ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

hudsonvalley21 _____________ +0.8 _ +1.0 _ +0.4 __ +0.4 _ +0.7 _ +1.2 __ +1.6 _ +2.6 _ +1.3

DonSutherland1 ____________ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ --0.1 __ --1.7 _ --0.1 _ --0.7 __ +1.2 _ +2.0 _ +2.1

___ Normal __________________ 0,0 __ 0,0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 

BKViking ___________________ --0.2 _ --0.2 _ --0.3 __ --1.2 _ +1.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0

wxallannj ___________________--0.3 _ --0.2 _ --0.5 __ --1.5 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 __ +0.9 _ +2.2 _ +0.3

Tom ________________________ --0.3 _ --0.6 _ --0.7 __ --1.1 _ --0.9 _ --0.1 __ --0.2 _ +1.7 _ +0.9 

___ Consensus ______________ --0.3 _ --0.6 _ --0.7 __ --1.5 _ --0.1 _ --0.1 __ +0.5 _ +1.7 _ +0.9

Scotty Lightning ____________ --1.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0 __ --1.5 _ +1.0 _ --1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5

RodneyS ___________________ --1.3 _ --1.5 _ --0.8 __ --2.2 _ --2.1 _ +0.1 __ --3.0 _ +0.8 _ +0.2

wxdude64 __________________ --1.6 _ --1.8 _ --1.2 __ --1.9 _ --1.2 _ --1.3 __ --0.9 _ +1.5 _ +1.6

Roger Smith ________________ --2.7 _  --2.7 _ --3.0 __ --3.5 _ --1.8 _ --0.8 __ --0.5 _ +1.0 _ --0.5

 

[Roger Smith]

First report on the anomalies and projections ...

 

___________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

8th ___________ (anom 7d) _________--3.0 _ --0.7 _ +1.9 ___ --8.8 _ --3.7 _ --4.6 ___ --7.1 _ +2.6 _ +0.4

16th _________ (anom 15d) ________ --6.2 _ --5.4 _ --3.5 __ --12.8 _ --7.0 _ --9.5 ___ --1.9 _ +4.7 _ +2.5

23rd _________ (anom 22d) ________ --5.0 _ --5.2 _ --3.4 ___ --9.1 _ --4.2 _ --6.1 ___ +0.1 _ +4.0 _ +2.4

 

8th ___________ (p 14 d) ___________ --7.0 _ --6.0 _ --5.0 __  -11.0 _ --8.0 _ --8.0 ___ --2.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.5

16th __________ (p 22 d) ___________ --4.8 _ --4.5 _ --4.0 ___ --8.0 _ --7.0 _ --6.5 ___ +1.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5

 

8th ___________ (p 24 d) ___________ --4.5 _ --3.0 _ --2.5 ___ --6.0 _ --4.0 _ --4.0 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0

16th __________ (p 30d) ___________ --4.0 _ --4.0 _ --3.5 ___ --5.0 _ --5.5 _ --5.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0

23rd __________ (p 30 d) ___________ --3.0 _ --3.5 _ --2.5 ___ --6.0 _ --2.5 _ --3.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.0

29th ________ changes _________________________ --2.0 _________________________ --2.0 ____________

1st Dec __ final anomalies ________ --3.5 _ --3.8 _ --2.0 ___--5.5 _ --1.5 _ --2.3 ____--2.1 _+2.3 _+1.2

__________________________________________________________

(8th) _ The month started quite cold in the east and central regions, and looks like getting even colder next week. The projection beyond that is based on a more modest cold anomaly to near normal conditions returning. The west has been a little warmer than average and looks set to stay that way for most of the month. 

(16th) _ I am updating a day later than usual, so the discussion of errors in the 7d outlook above will refer to estimates of the anomalies to 15th rather than what you see posted for the 16th. Those forecasts were fairly accurate given the large negative anomaly that developed over the eastern and central regions. For most locations the 15th was fairly close to the anomaly shown but for DEN which warmed up it was likely closer to -3 so the error was larger than it looks there. PHX and SEA probably did a bit better as they moved up beyond where they had been on 14th. So overall I am estimating an average error close to 1 deg which for a pattern this anomalous is good. The projections for next week are for modified cold to continue in the east, modified warmth fading to closer to average in the west. Then for the period 23rd to 30th I have extended the values derived for the 22nd with conservative assumptions of pattern persistence (small negative anomalies east, small positives west). Based on the provisional end of month anomalies, the scoring would likely be an inverse of the forecast table but only faintly so, since the larger potential errors in the east seem to be compensated by better scoring in the west. We all seem to have looked for patterns that were less divided east-west than what actually has developed so far at least. 

(23rd) _ The forecasts for this past week were fairly accurate although ATL did not retain the cold anomaly to the extent suggested, overall the average error in the forecast (based on NWS 7-day) was 0.87 deg. This coming week, using the NWS 7-day and one additional day from the GFS guidance, it looks as though all large negative anomalies will be trimmed down further and this actually brings ATL and IAH back into normal scoring range so we won't likely need provisional scoring there. ORD could on the other hand get into that range, at the moment the provisional is just low enough to keep scoring "raw." Anything colder than -6.5 will change that and I think the field will benefit slightly vs my own lead in the monthly contest as the differentials on raw scores are higher than the progressive scoring would become. Now that BOS has a provisional less extreme than my forecast, there again the field will gain as all scores rise but mine not as much. Feeling more confident that these scores will be a good approximation now, so I will bring in the annual update soon, after revising the provisional scoring.

(29th) _ Scoring for BOS and DEN will be adjusted after checking the progress of the last forecasts a week ago. The rest look to be either on track or will produce only a field-wide adjustment not affecting contest scoring relatively. 

(1st Dec) _ Final anomalies are now all confirmed as of 14z. Most of the scoring is already updated and this will be complete by 15z. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for November 2019

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTALS

 

Roger Smith _______________ 84 _ 78 _ 80 ___ 242 __ 65 _ 94 _ 70 __ 229 __ 471 __ 68 _ 74 _ 66 __ 208 _____ 679

wxdude64 _________________ 62 _ 60 _ 84 ___ 206 __ 33 _ 94 _ 80 __ 207 __ 413 __ 76 _ 84 _ 92 __ 252 _____ 665

RodneyS ___________________ 56 _ 54 _ 76 ___ 186 __ 39 _ 88 _ 52 __ 179 __ 365 __ 82 _ 70 _ 80 __ 232 _____ 597

Tom _______________________ 36 _ 36 _ 74 ___ 146 __ 17 _ 88 _ 56 __ 161 __ 307 __ 62 _ 88 _ 94 __ 244 _____ 551

Scotty Lightning ____________50 _ 44 _ 80 ___ 174 __ 25 _ 50 _ 74 __ 149 __ 323 __ 48 _ 74 _ 86 __ 208 _____ 531 

 

___ Consensus ______________ 36 _ 36 _ 74 ___ 146 __ 25 _ 72 _ 56 ___ 153 __ 299 __ 48 _ 88 _ 94 __ 230 _____ 529

 

DonSutherland1 ____________20 _ 14 _ 62 ___ 096 __ 29 _ 72 _ 68 __ 169 __ 265 __ 34 _ 94 _ 82 __ 210 _____ 475

BKViking ___________________34 _ 28 _ 66 ___ 128 __ 19 _ 38 _ 46 __ 103 __ 231 __ 48 _ 94 _ 96 __ 238 _____ 469

wxallannj ___________________36 _ 28 _ 70 ___ 134 __ 25 _ 46 _ 38 __ 109 __ 243 __ 40 _ 98 _ 82 __ 220 _____ 463

___ Normal _________________30 _ 24 _ 60 ___ 114 __ 00 _ 70 _ 54 __ 124 __ 238 ___ 58 _ 54 _ 76 __ 188 _____ 426

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 14 _ 04 _ 52 ___ 070 __ 00 _ 56 _ 30 __ 086 __ 156 ___ 26 _ 94 _ 98 __ 218 _____ 374

===============================================

Extreme forecasts

Coldest forecasts have scored highest at DCA, NYC, ORD,  IAH and DEN. The first three of those go to Roger Smith, IAH to wxdude64, and DEN to RodneyS.

BOS and ATL produced winners and losers as second coldest forecasts attained high scores there. 

BOS (-2.0) is a loss for RS (-3.0) and a win for second coldest wxdude64 (-1.4) 

ATL (-1.5) warmed up enough on the 30th to transfer the highest score previously held by RodneyS (-2.1) to a tie (Roger Smith -1.8 and wxdude64 -1.2) who share the win while RodneyS gets a loss.

SEA does not qualify for extreme forecasts at the moment, consensus values are close to the provisionals with both warm and cold extremes scoring lower than most.

PHX (+2.3) was a win for second warmest forecast of wxallannj (+2.2) and a loss for warmest hudsonvalley21 (+2.6).  

 

 

[Roger Smith]

<<<<< =====  ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan - Nov 2019 ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>

  

 A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. 

Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. 

  

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL

  

RodneyS ______________665 _814 _743__2222 __656 _680 _830__2166 __4388 __ 723 _758 _738 __ 2219___ 6607

wxdude64 ____________ 739 _856 _719 __2314 __678 _627 _809__2114 __4428 __ 637 _754 _748 __2139 ___6567

___ Consensus ________709_ 854 _756 __2319__643 _653 _814 __2110 __4429 __ 589 _764 _744__2097 ____6526

Roger Smith __________ 776 _800 _750 __2326__641 _609 _770__2020 __4346 __ 746 _722 _704 __2172____6518

DonSutherland.1 ______627 _824 _669 __2120 __624 _664 _840 __2128 __4248 __ 581 _806_ 768__2155____ 6403

wxallannj _____________691 _764 _782 __2237 __559 _689 _772 __2020 __ 4257__ 521 _776 _728 __2025____ 6282

BKViking _____________ 716 _817 _748 __2281 __599 _553 _751 __1903 __4184 __ 529 _723 _740 __1992 ____6176

hudsonvalley21 _______646 _758 _804 __2308 __575 _659 _784 __2018 __4326 __ 391 _766 _680 __1837____ 6163

Scotty Lightning_______635 _796 _735 __2166 __605 _642 _812 __2059 __4225 __ 433 _690 _610 __1733 ____5958

Tom __________________553 _751 _635 __1939 __640 _542 _802 __1984 __3923 __ 521 _744 _701 __1966 ____5889

 ___ Normal ___________440 _756 _620 __1816 __598 _430 _768 __1796 __3612 __ 444 _737 _547__1728 ____5340

Stebo (4/10) __________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __ 1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ___ 2225

RJay (4/10) ___________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __ 1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ___ 2083

tplbge (1/10) ___________ 90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _ 100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___ 72 __ 88 __32 ___ 192 ____ 684

Orangeburgwx (1/10) ___ 50 __ 90 __ 78 __ 218 __ 88 __ 60 __ 80 __ 228 ___ 446 ___ 60 __100__ 76 ___ 236 ____ 682 

smerby (1/10) __________ 94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___ 432 ___50 __ 82 __ 96 ___ 228 ____ 660

Jakkelwx (1/10) ________ 92 __ 68 __ 30 __ 190 __ 50 __ 82 __ 68 __ 200 ___ 390___ 80 __ 90 __ 88 ___ 258 ____ 648

 _______________________________________________________________________

 

 Best scores in each category 

_ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).

 _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above.

_ from July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also

___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). 

_ from October, best scores with ^ are regular forecaster high scores, as Orangeburgwx had high scores for BOS, ORD, cent/east, PHX and month of October. Those count for both Orangeburgwx and the regular forecaster with high score in each case. ATL and central subregion will be a tie between DonS and Orangeburgwx so no ^ symbol needed there. (all these are provisional at the moment).

  

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

  

RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 3 ___1 ___2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 4 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY

wxdude64 ______________ 2 ___0 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___2*____2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___1 ___3 ___ 2 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN

 ___Consensus__________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Roger Smith ____________6 ___2 ___2 ____ 5 ____ 4 ___4 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 3 ____ 3 ___3^___1 ___ 2 ____ 3 __ JUL, SEP, NOV

DonSutherland.1 ________0 ___1 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 2^____0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 1^ __ OCT^

wxallannj _______________ 1 ___2 ___1 ____ 1____ 0 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

BKViking ________________0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1*___0 ___1 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 _________ 1 ___4 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN

Scotty Lightning ________ 1 ___1 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 __ AUG

Tom ____________________ 0 ___2 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 2* ___ 0

___ Normal _____________ 1 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB

 RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Orangeburgwx _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ___1 ___0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ OCT

smerby _________________0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

 jakkelwx _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0

 

 __________________________________________________________________________________

  

Extreme forecasts  

  

 STANDINGS to date in 2019

 

Roger Smith _________27-8 (3 _/)

RodneyS ____________ 12-5

DonSutherland1 ______ 8-0

wxdude64 ___________ 8-0

wxallannj ____________ 8-2

Scotty Lightning ______6-1

Normal ______________ 6-1

hudsonvalley21 _______5-1 (1 _/)

Orangeburgwx _______ 5-2

Tom _________________ 4-1

Stebo ________________3-1

BKViking ____________ 2-0*^%

 RJay ________________ 1-0

 tplbge _______________1-0

 Jakkelwx ____________1-0

 *retained if Jakkelwx plays fewer than three.

 ^ no decision for BOS, SEA in Aug (highest raw score reduced by late penalty) 

^ also no decision for PHX (Sep) same reason.

% also no decision for PHX (Oct) same reason.

_/ ... Roger Smith (Oct) has three wins among regular forecasters but Orangeburgwx has higher scores and wins for those also. Hudsonvalley21 (BOS) same reason for symbol.

... ... The other win for Orangeburgwx was a tie with DonS (ATL) so this symbol is not needed for that. 

... ... IAH was scored an extreme forecast in Oct because it would have qualified among regular forecasters. There was a win-loss situation and Orangeburgwx shared a loss (with RS) although if he were a regular participant the outcome would not have qualified. (third coldest forecast of Tom, and Normal, shared a win).

 

 ______________________________________________________________________________

[RodneyS]

Snowfall (11/23):

DCA: 14.4"

NYC: 25.1"

BOS: 40.0"

ORD: 35.0"

DTW: 38.0"

BUF: 100.0"

DEN: 80.0"

BTV: 88.0"

SEA: 4.0"

[Roger Smith]

2019-2020 winter snowfall contest -- table of entries

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF____ DEN _  SEA _ BTV

___ Snowfall to date (Jan 31) ___ 0.6 __ 4.8 __14.6 ___18.1 __21.9 _ 41.7 ___ 29.9 __ 0.7 _ 41.6

Tom __________________________ 27.6 _ 48.1 _ 59.8 ___ 44.5 _ 39.8 _ 97.6 ___ 68.6 __ 4.8 _ 85.1

wxallannj _____________________ 22.4 _ 33.5 _ 44.7 ___ 38,9 _ 38.8 _ 69.6 ___ 41.3 __ 7.2 _ 79.4

wxdude64 ____________________ 20.6 _ 42.5 _ 54.1 ___ 50.6 _ 52.7 _100.9 ___ 69.8 __ 9.6 _ 97.4

BKViking ______________________19.0 _ 36.0 _ 51.0 ___ 42.0 _ 29.0 _ 84.0 ___ 55.0 __ 8.0 _ 77.0

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.8 _ 31.2 _ 47.7 ___ 42.2 _ 52.6 _ 91.3 ___ 61.1 __10.4 _ 88.8

Roger Smith __________________ 15.5 _ 38.5 _ 55.8 ___ 60.5 _ 60.2 _102.5 ___109.7__ 7.5 _110.5 

RodneyS ______________________14.4 _ 25.1 _ 40.0 ___ 35.0 _ 38.0 _100.0 ___ 80.0 __ 4.0 _ 88.0

Scotty Lightning _______________12.0 _ 24.0 _ 36.0 ___ 48.0 _ 67.0 _105.0 ___45.0 __14.0 _ 90.0

DonSutherland1 _______________10.0 _ 23.5 _ 36.0 ___ 30.0 _ 35.0 _110.0 ___ 83.0 __ 6.5 _ 90.0

___ consensus (mean) _________ 17.5 _ 33.6 _ 47.2 ____ 44.1 _ 45.9 __95.7 ___ 68.2 __ 8.0 _ 94.0

___ % to date ___________________ 3.5 __ 14 ___ 31 ______ 41 ___ 48 ___ 43 _____ 44 ___ 8.7 __ 44

(further updates in Feb contest thread)

[Roger Smith]

Note: the annual scoring race was adjusted today ... as DEN and BOS scores are heading for somewhat different results relatively speaking. The adjustments move wxdude64 past yours truly into second place and also help RodneyS gain back some of the points advantage he had at end of October. His lead is now up to 68 over nearest competitor. 

Still looks like an epic finish to our contest year. 

[Roger Smith]

Final adjustments to scoring have left the tables completed as of now, with RodneyS holding a rather slim 40 point advantage over wxdude64, and 89 points clear of third place RS.

DonS is a further 115 points back or 204 behind the leader. 

These are probably all margins that could be made up from differences in December forecasts, not sure about the math of moving past everyone ahead but it should be a nail-biter for the three leaders for sure. 

[Roger Smith]

Oops, I totally forgot to update the final part of the Four Seasons contest, so here goes: 

 

Four Seasons contest -- Final Report

The table shows your ranking at each location, and for various regions. Since central/eastern is ranked, the ranks for each of them are not added in to the total value.

The regional totals are double weighted since both they and the all nine values contribute to the total score.

As with golf, low score wins (rank 1 = highest point total, etc). However, you have to play all four seasons, so a lower score for two seasons does not count.

Ranks with an asterisk * symbol are tied by points scored over the three months. If a player ties Consensus or Normal, only they get the asterisk (not the person).

This is the final report now that Autumn 2019 ranks are available. 

__ Congrats to RodneyS for holding on to a win, as the pack moved in (2nd through 5th each separated by only 1 point). 

 

 

FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west_all nine_TOTAL

 

___ Consensus __winter__  5 __ 6 __ 6  __ ( 5) ___ 6 __ 7 __ 6*__( 6) __ 6  ___6*__ 6 __ 5  ___5 ___ 7 _____ 71

________________ spring __ 1 __ 2 __ 4*__ ( 1) ___ 2 __ 4 __ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 4 ___ 4 ____ 3 _____ 40 

________________ summer _3*__1*__ 4 __ ( 3) ___ 6 __ 3*__ 2*__(4*) __ 2 ___ 6 __ 5 __5 ___ 5 ____ 1 _____ 43

________________ autumn _ 5 __ 4 __ 4*__ ( 4) ___ 3 __ 4 __ 6 __ ( 5) __ 3 ___ 5 __ 6 __ 3 ___ 6 ____ 3 _____ 52 __ 206

 

 RodneyS _______winter___8 __ 8 __ 3 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 3*__ 4 __( 4) __ 5 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 5 ______ 67

________________ spring __ 4* __1 __ 3 __ ( 4) ___ 1__ 2 __ 1*__( 1) __ 1 ___ 1 __ 2 __1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______ 19 

________________ summer _5*__2 __ 2 __ ( 4) ___ 1*_ 9 __ 6 __ ( 7) __ 9 ___ 4*__ 9 __ 5 ___ 7 ____ 7 ______ 66

________________ autumn _ 3 __ 4*__ 8 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __3 __ 6 __ ( 6) __ 4 ___ 2 __ 7*__ 6 ___ 5 ____ 3 ______ 57__ 209

  

Roger Smith _____winter __1 __ 11 __ 4 __( 5) ___ 11 _ 6 __ 2 __ ( 7) __7 ___ 2 __11__ 1 ___ 2 ____ 6 ______ 64

________________ spring __ 9 __ 5*__ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 _ 10 __ 9 __ ( 9) __ 9 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 9 ___ 3 ____ 7 ______ 81

________________ summer _1 __ 8 __ 6 __ ( 5) ___ 1*__4 __ 8 __ ( 5) __ 7 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 4 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______ 44

________________ autumn _ 1 __ 1 __ 1 __ ( 1) ___ 1 __ 6 __ 4*__ ( 1) __ 1 ___ 1 __ 6 __ 8 ___ 4 ____ 1 ______ 35__ 224

 

 wxallannj ______ winter __ 3 __ 4 __ 1 __ ( 2) ___10 __1 __ 1 __ ( 1) __1 ___ 3 __ 8 __ 7 ___ 7 ____ 1  ______47

________________ spring ___3 __ 9 __ 5 __ ( 6) ___ 2 __ 3 __ 7 __ ( 3) __ 6 ___ 7 __ 3 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 4 ______ 59

________________ summer _ 2 __ 5 __ 1 __ ( 1) ___ 8 __ 8 __ 7 __ (8*) __ 5 __ 3 __ 3 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______ 51

________________ autumn _ 7 __ 7 __ 3 __ ( 7) ___ 5 __ 5 __ 7* __ ( 7) __ 6 __ 7 __ 2 __ 4 ___ 7 ____ 8 ______ 68 __ 225

 

wxdude64 ______ winter __ 9 __ 5 __ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 __ 8 __ 7 ___ ( 6) __ 9  ___ 9 __ 7 __ 9  __10 ____10____ 96

 ________________ spring __ 2 __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 7 __ 6 ___ ( 6) __ 4* ___4 __ 4 __ 2 __ 4 _____ 3 _____ 52

_________________summer _9 __3*__ 5 __ ( 6) ___ 1*__6 __ 2 ___ ( 3) __ 3 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _____ 43

________________ autumn _ 2 __ 2 __ 5 __ ( 2) ___ 7 __ 1 __ 3 ___ ( 2) __ 2 ___  4 __ 4 __ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 _____ 35 __ 226

 

 

 DonSutherland.1 _winter _4 __ 5 __10 __ ( 6) ___5 __ 2 __ 3 __ ( 3) __ 3 ___ 7 __ 2 __ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 46

 ________________ spring __ 7 __ 2 __ 4 __ ( 7) ___ 6 __ 8 __ 1*__( 2) __ 4*___3 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ______ 43

_________________summer _5*__3*__ 9 __ ( 7) ___ 4 __ 4*__3* __( 4) __ 6 ___ 7 __ 8 __ 8 ___ 9 ____ 8 ______74

_________________autumn _ 8 __ 8 __ 7 __ ( 8) ___ 3*__ 2 __ 4*__ ( 3) __ 5 ___ 6 __ 3 __ 5 ___ 6 ____ 7 ______64__ 227

  

hudsonvalley21 __winter __5 __ 2 __ 7 __ ( 4) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 6 __ ( 5) __ 4 ___ 4* __4 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______54

 ________________ spring __ 6 __ 3 __ 1 __ ( 1) ___ 7 __ 1 __ 5 __ ( 4) __ 2 ___11 __ 6 __ 8 ___ 8 ____ 6 ______64 

_________________summer _4 __ 1 __ 1*__( 1) ___ 5 __ 2 __ 1 __ ( 1) __ 1 ___ 8 __ 7 __ 7 ___ 8 ____3*______48

_________________autumn _ 6 __ 3 __ 2 __ ( 3) ___ 9 __ 7 __ 9 __ ( 9) __ 7 ___ 9 __ 5 __ 7 ___ 8 ____ 9 ______ 81__ 249

 

BKViking _______ winter __ 7 __ 3  __ 5 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __10 __ 8 __ (11) __ 6 ___4*__ 9 __11___ 9 ____ 7 _____ 85

 ________________ spring __  1 __ 4 __ 8 __ ( 2) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 8 __ ( 8) ___ 7 ___ 8 __ 8 __ 5 ___ 7 ____ 7 _____ 76 

_________________summer _ 3 __ 9 __ 3 __ ( 3) ___ 7 __ 3 __ 3* __( 6) __ 2 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 2 ___ 4 ____ 5 _____ 53

_________________autumn _ 4 __ 6 __ 6 __ ( 6) ___ 3*__ 9 __ 7* __ ( 8) __ 8 ___ 5 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 2 ____ 4 _____ 56__ 270

  

 

 Scotty Lightning_winter__ 2 __ 1 __ 2 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 3*__ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 __11 __10 __10 __11 ___ 4 ______ 64

________________ spring __ 8 __ 8 __ 2 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 4 __ 4 __ ( 7) __ 8 __ 10 __ 9 __ 6 ___ 9 ____ 9 ______ 86

________________ summer _7*__6 __ 8 __ ( 8) ___ 6 __ 1 __ 5 __ ( 2) __ 4 ___ 2 __ 3*__ 9 ___ 5 ____ 6 ______ 62

________________ autumn _ 5 __ 4*__ 4 __ ( 4) ___ 2 __ 8 __ 1 __ ( 5) __ 3 ___ 8 __ 9 __ 9 ___ 9 ____ 8 ______ 70__ 282

    

Tom ____________winter __11 __ 6 __11 __(11) ___1 __11 __ 9 __ ( 9) __11 ___10 __ 3 __ 4 ___ 8 ____11_____96

 ________________ spring __ 4*__ 5*__ 7 __ ( 5) ___ 5 __ 6 __ 3 ___( 4) __ 3 ____ 6 __ 7 __ 8 ___ 6 _____ 5 ____ 65

_________________summer _7*__ 7 __ 7 __ ( 9) ___ 9 __ 7 __ 8* __( 9) __ 9 ____ 9 __ 1 __ 6 ___ 6 _____ 9 ____ 85 

_________________autumn _ 9 __ 9 __ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 8 __ 4 __ 2 ___ ( 4) __ 9 ____ 3 __ 7*__ 3 ___ 3 ____ 7 _____ 73__ 319

  

 ___ Normal _____winter___9 __  3 __ 8 __ ( 7) ___ 3 __ 7*__ 9*__ ( 6) __ 6 ___10 __ 3 __12 ___ 9 ____  7 ______ 86

________________ spring __11 __ 8 __ 4 __ ( 9) ___ 4*__11 __ 3 ___  (9) __ 9 ___ 11 __ 3 __ 9 ___ 8 ____ 10 _____ 91

________________summer_10__ 6* __10__ (10) ___ 6*__ 9 __ 8 ___ ( 8) __10 ___ 7 __10 __10 ___10 ___ 10 ____106

________________ autumn _10 __10 __10__(10) ___ 9 __10 __ 8*___(10) __10 ___ 7 __ 9 __ 9*___ 8 ___ 10 ____ 110 __ 393

==========================================---==================================

(left contest before summer portion) . . .

 

 Stebo ____________winter__ 6  __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 7) ___ 2 __ 9 __10 __ ( 8) __ 8 ___ 8 __ 5 ___ 6 ___ 6 ____ 8 _____ 81

 ________________ spring __10 __10__10 __ (10) ___11 __9 __11 __(11) __10 ___ 9 __11 __11 __11 ____10 _____123 __ (204)

  

 RJay ____________winter___10 __10 __ 8 __(10) ___ 7 __ 7 __11 __ (10)__10 ___ 1 __ 1 ___ 8 ___4 ____ 9 _____ 86

 ________________ spring __11 __ 11__11 __ (11) __10 __11__10 __(10) __11 ___ 5 __10 __10 ___10 ___ 11 ____121 __(207)