MJO812 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Euro has a big snowstorm mid month Pattern is explosive 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 34 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro has a big snowstorm mid month Pattern is explosive Over a foot in fantasy land and teens after. Something to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 43 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro has a big snowstorm mid month Pattern is explosive The ticking time bomb is coming. buckle up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, Animal said: The ticking time bomb is coming. buckle up Yes . It's amazing that we might get another nov storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 hour ago, uncle W said: December 2010 is the only one with a very negative ao and nao….the last major snowstorm in December was in 2010... December 2017 came really close. The late month Arctic outbreak began about a week too late. So the historic 950 mb benchmark blizzard occurred on January 4th. Another case of the 2010’s warm up around the solstice. Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Avg Temperature Avg Temperature Departure Snowfall 2017-12-18 47 32 39.5 4.7 0.0 2017-12-19 55 40 47.5 13.0 0.0 2017-12-20 51 32 41.5 7.3 0.0 2017-12-21 39 24 31.5 -2.5 0.0 2017-12-22 48 30 39.0 5.3 0.0 2017-12-23 53 35 44.0 10.5 0.0 2017-12-24 43 35 39.0 5.8 T 2017-12-25 40 28 34.0 1.0 T 2017-12-26 29 20 24.5 -8.3 0.0 2017-12-27 25 18 21.5 -11.1 0.0 2017-12-28 18 11 14.5 -17.8 0.0 2017-12-29 22 11 16.5 -15.7 0.0 2017-12-30 22 12 17.0 -15.0 1.3 2017-12-31 19 9 14.0 -17.8 0.0 2018-01-01 17 6 11.5 -20.1 0.0 2018-01-02 25 10 17.5 -14.0 0.0 2018-01-03 28 10 19.0 -12.3 0.0 2018-01-04 30 21 25.5 -5.7 16.0 2018-01-05 21 10 15.5 -15.6 0.0 2018-01-06 12 6 9.0 -22.0 0.0 2018-01-07 19 2 10.5 -20.3 0.0 2018-01-08 35 18 26.5 -4.3 T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 its been a while since this area had a snowstorm just before Christmas...2009 was the last time a pre Christmas snowstorm gave us a white Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro has a big snowstorm mid month Pattern is explosive THIS is what I am talking about !!!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 hours ago, Animal said: The ticking time bomb is coming. buckle up Better get the leaves out of the yards and gone or they might be there a while if the setup holds true 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Yep, EURO is 12" around the 13th, 14th for the City. This is up from 3" on the previous run, so issue far from settled. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 18z gfs came in flatter for the end of the week storm. Interior areas should still watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z gfs came in flatter for the end of the week storm. Interior areas should still watch it. Yeah I think Yorktown heights and north can still get at least a dusting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro has a big snowstorm mid month Pattern is explosive Lmao, didn't you learn your lesson last winter? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Lmao, didn't you learn your lesson last winter? Learn what ? Are you even looking at the models and pattern ? Its hilarious how people think it cant snow because its November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Learn what ? Are you even looking at the models and pattern ? Its hilarious how people think it cant snow because its November. Calm down, I'm just busting you. I never said it can't snow in November. That aside, did the pattern not look good countless times last year only to never ever verify? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 A cold front, which will likely see a storm develop along the frontal boundary, will bring the season's coldest air mass so far this season into the region later this week. This air mass could be sufficiently cold to bring New York City its first freeze of the season. An area running from northeastern Pennsylvania across the New York State border eastward into New England will likely see measurable snowfall Thursday night into Friday. A portion of this area, including Binghamton, has the potential to pick up 4" or more snow. A second and potentially larger storm could impact parts of the regon next week. In part, due to a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation, the second half warmup will likely be gradual. Readings might not return to normal and then above normal until around November 20 +/- a few days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -34.49 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below has occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.122. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On November 4, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.567 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 2.380. The 2.567 amplitude is the highest amplitude on record in November for the MJO's being in Phase 5. The previous record was 2.512 on November 24, 2002. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to warmer than normal conditions, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. Since 1869, New York City has had 30 cases where the November 1-15 mean temperature averaged from 42.5°-46.5°. Just 2/30 (7%) wound up with a mean temperature greater than 46.5° (1934: 48.9° and 1991: 48.3°). None of the 35 cases where the November 1-15 had a mean temperature below 46.0° (including first half mean temperatures below 42.5°), which appears likely in 2019, finished with a monthly mean temperature above 46.5°. In addition, 80% of the cases that saw New York City record a mean temperature below 46.0° during the first half of November went on to see 20" or more seasonal snowfall. Almost one quarter of such winters saw 40" or more snow. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 75% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 2 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Calm down, I'm just busting you. I never said it can't snow in November. That aside, did the pattern not look good countless times last year only to never ever verify? Yup...Saw this movie before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Unlike our ursine relatives, the winterweatherweenie undergoes what is essentially "reverse hibernation," only coming out of a deep, 6-month sleep, from May through October, when the WWW senses that there might be a long range global model out there on the internet showing a BECS (or at least some flurries) over a week away. And so, I'm back. A little disappointed nobody posted the Euro, lol. Let the games begin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Unlike our ursine relatives, the winterweatherweenie undergoes what is essentially "reverse hibernation," only coming out of a deep, 6-month sleep, from May through October, when the WWW senses that there might be a long range global model out there on the internet showing a BECS (or at least some flurries) over a week away. And so, I'm back. A little disappointed nobody posted the Euro, lol. Let the games begin... After last years lackluster winter I think many are pessimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Dan76 said: Yup...Saw this movie before. When ? Are you a weather enthusiast or a troll? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 3 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Calm down, I'm just busting you. I never said it can't snow in November. That aside, did the pattern not look good countless times last year only to never ever verify? Of course it can bust but the pattern looks good for snow chances next week. All we can do right now is watch 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Of course it can bust but the pattern looks good for snow chances next week. All we can do right now is watch Right, and who knows, maybe this year will be opposite of last. It would be interesting to see a front-loaded winter which is extremely hard to come by nowadays. Check your PM's btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Of course it can bust but the pattern looks good for snow chances next week. All we can do right now is watch Always loved your enthusiasm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Gfs has some snow next week with really cold temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has some snow next week with really cold temps. Very strong signal next week for a big system. Given the recent string of November snows & repeating patterns I wouldn't be so quick to discount this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 The cold air on this run is incredible. Well below normal for November standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Nice coastal snowstorm on the cmc. Pretty similar to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 4 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Calm down, I'm just busting you. I never said it can't snow in November. That aside, did the pattern not look good countless times last year only to never ever verify? To be fair, the "good" pattern last year was on the weeklies beyond 2 weeks. It never showed up on the OP models and kept getting pushed back on the weeklies. First it was late January, then 1st week of Feb, then President's Day, and then it finally locked in just in time to ruin the spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Cmc has a lot more =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Cmc has a lot more =) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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