November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

I am guessing that it’s related to the link between the declining Arctic sea ice and warming Pacific. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL077325

That could also be why we're seeing the more common occurrence of very early season snowfalls starting in October 2011.

 

[Gravity Wave]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am guessing that it’s related to the link between the declining Arctic sea ice and warming Pacific. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL077325

The pattern over the past few years has also been that the Arctic sea ice recovers much less rapidly in the Alaska/Chukchi Sea area compared with the rest of the arctic, which I imagine will help keep sustaining that positive anomaly off Alaska. Could this be a self-reinforcing cycle that will contribute to a more sustained western ridge/eastern trough pattern over the US during the winter?

[binbisso]

I'm hearing the new Euro weeklies are delaying the breakdown of The Blocking and the cold can persist for another week or two right through November. Cik said -4.5 through the 12th with some really cold air to follow if guidance is correct.  November could end up well below normal and possibly erase the warm fall Departures that we have so far. Also as some have stated here solid snow chance early next week and possibly another to follow. could be an epic November here. good to be tracking so early in the season

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

The pattern over the past few years has also been that the Arctic sea ice recovers much less rapidly in the Alaska/Chukchi Sea area compared with the rest of the arctic, which I imagine will help keep sustaining that positive anomaly off Alaska. Could this be a self-reinforcing cycle that will contribute to a more sustained western ridge/eastern trough pattern over the US during the winter?

Maybe just for November   Pattern takes time to reload so it might reinforce a backloaded winter after that.  Or maybe we should call it a bookend season?

 

 

 

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That I believe was one of only 2 storms ever to give 6 inches to DCA and BOS but not also give 6 to NYC.  The other occurred only 10 months prior to that on 1/26/87.  I believe JFK did get 6 on 1/26/87 but LGA and NYC saw way less

I remember the second snowstorm in early January 1988 had more snow to our sw and ne...8" DCA...5" NYC...Boston 9.4"...

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I remember the second snowstorm in early January 1988 had more snow to our sw and ne...8" DCA...5" NYC...Boston 9.4"...

Some of those winters had crazy gradients, both 86-87 and 87-88 had much more snow to our SW, including Monmouth County.  I think 88-89 was like that, I remember a virga snowstorm that February.  And 89-90 of course, had that in December.  Lots of cold and dry winters or cold and dry flipping to warm and wet.

 

[uncle W]

3 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Damn near impossible to get a dusting in NYC in early November especially with avg/mild temps beforehand. Paste, white rain, or rain.

Also 38° this morning with a bit of frost. We're getting there finally.

we had a dusting on Thanksgiving day in 1996...

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Some of those winters had crazy gradients, both 86-87 and 87-88 had much more snow to our SW, including Monmouth County.  I think 88-89 was like that, I remember a virga snowstorm that February.  And 89-90 of course, had that in December.  Lots of cold and dry winters or cold and dry flipping to warm and wet.

 

the storm I was talking about did have 9.6" at JFK while NYC got 5.2"...6.8" in Bensonhurst...

 

[psv88]

Everyone needs to relax, weenie central in here. Yes, it will be cold for the next few weeks, that means nothing for DJFM. I guess nobody has learned anything from last winter. 

Nothing means nothing, and we will just need to wait and see what happens. 

[bluewave]

On 11/4/2019 at 4:29 PM, Gravity Wave said:

The pattern over the past few years has also been that the Arctic sea ice recovers much less rapidly in the Alaska/Chukchi Sea area compared with the rest of the arctic, which I imagine will help keep sustaining that positive anomaly off Alaska. Could this be a self-reinforcing cycle that will contribute to a more sustained western ridge/eastern trough pattern over the US during the winter?

The research points to an interaction between the reduced Arctic sea ice around the Chukchi and lower latitude forcing. This has been a common November pattern this decade.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-41682-4

Conclusion

We showed that a warm hole over the Pacific sector was responsible for the cold 2017–18 winter in the mid-latitudes, in addition to the effect of the semi-permanent ice retreat in the Barents Sea. The warm hole symbolizes the historically largest ice-free ocean in the Bering and Chukchi Seas because the shape of the ice-free ocean appears as a hole with overlying warm air. Analyses focusing on the area of the Pacific sector also showed that there was a positive feedback mechanism between the warm hole, underlying ocean, and overlying atmosphere. This feedback process made the Arctic upper air warm, which caused the jet stream to push northward. Furthermore, we showed that the coincidence of the two events – pre-existing warm holes in late autumn and the occurrence of the sporadic strong and moist northward wind events that are strong enough to move thin ice, such as an atmospheric river, – could initiate and develop the positive feedback system. In addition, the poleward penetration of atmospheric rivers can induce sea ice melt or prevent its formation through enhanced downwelling longwave radiation. The positive feedback between the large ice-free ocean, the atmospheric rivers, and the ocean current actively pushed the jet northward. In reaction to this northward meander, large southward jet stream pathways formed over Asia and America, allowing cold air to spread into Asia and the southern areas of North America. We therefore conclude that the warm hole apparing in the Pacific side of the Arctic is responsible for the anomalous jet meander. The positive feedback system does not operate in isolation within the Arctic. Rather there are contributions from external lower-latitude forcings, such as atmospheric rivers¹⁶. Deepening the knowledge of the extra-Arctic processes that control long-term variations of atmospheric rivers is beneficial for long-range winter weather forecasts. Examining the reasons why the warm hole appeared is also beneficial because the sea-ice hole serves as a predictor. The positive feedback could provide Eastern Eurasia and North America with cold winters in the new era of the warm hole. Whether the positive feedback is strong or not must be tested by examining detailed data analyses, together with high-resolution numerical simulations of both the atmosphere and ocean. This study showed an upscale effect, i.e., influence of narrow-width atmospheric rivers upon global-scale jet streams, suggesting that a fine-mesh numerical model that resolves atmospheric rivers is needed to predict the global-scale climate change associated with future global warming.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the storm I was talking about did have 9.6" at JFK while NYC got 5.2"...6.8" in Bensonhurst...

January 1988?  Didn't that have 7" at LGA?  I think I remember that storm, it snowed overnight into morning and we had school delays (but no cancellations of course.)

Do you by any chance remember a December snowstorm that dropped 8.6" at NYC?  I dont remember what year it was but it had to have been after 83 (all I remember about 83-84 is back to back 4-5 inch snowfalls that both fell overnight and lots of cold.)  I think it was December 1984?  Or maybe December 1985?

 

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

January 1988?  Didn't that have 7" at LGA?  I think I remember that storm, it snowed overnight into morning and we had school delays (but no cancellations of course.)

Do you by any chance remember a December snowstorm that dropped 8.6" at NYC?  I dont remember what year it was but it had to have been after 83 (all I remember about 83-84 is back to back 4-5 inch snowfalls that both fell overnight and lots of cold.)  I think it was December 1984?  Or maybe December 1985?

 

 

December 84 and 90 I thought had the biggest snowfalls of the 80s and they were 6.6 and 7.8 respectively I believe

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

December 84 and 90 I thought had the biggest snowfalls of the 80s and they were 6.6 and 7.8 respectively I believe

Pre 93 I remember a storm that stalled just offshore in February.  It was supposed to just be a frontal passage and it stalled for 30 hours and just kept snowing.  During the day it was mostly wet snow and at night it really started to stick, and there was 4-8 inches in a narrow band from EWR across the city and on Long Island.  Do you happen to know what year that was?  Sometime in the early 90s?

Then there was another one in the early 90s that also occurred in February, an arctic front slipped down from the north and a low formed on it and dropped 4-7 inches across the area, an all day snowfall with a brilliant red frigid sunset (what a treat!)  It was 4 inches here with 7 inches in Plainview, Long Island.  Was that the following year?

 

[Ericjcrash]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

we had a dusting on Thanksgiving day in 1996...

Late Novemeber and early November are quite different. It was also in the 20s and 30s the day before and subfreezing all Thanksgiving day that year.

[SnowGoose69]

52 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 

Then there was another one in the early 90s that also occurred in February, an arctic front slipped down from the north and a low formed on it and dropped 4-7 inches across the area, an all day snowfall with a brilliant red frigid sunset (what a treat!)  It was 4 inches here with 7 inches in Plainview, Long Island.  Was that the following year?

 

2/6/93 I think, it was a Saturday.  I clearly remember that sunset too now that you mentioned it.  I thought we would see widespread below 0 lows that night because the high dropped straight out of Quebec and we had a snow pack but nobody got even close.  The forecast was for maybe a dusting-2 inches and a localized 4-7 hit because of a surface reflection that formed along the boundary across NJ and south of LI.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

2/6/93 I think, it was a Saturday.  I clearly remember that sunset too now that you mentioned it.  I thought we would see widespread below 0 lows that night because the high dropped straight out of Quebec and we had a snow pack but nobody got even close.  The forecast was for maybe a dusting-2 inches and a localized 4-7 hit because of a surface reflection that formed along the boundary across NJ and south of LI.

Thanks, I remember that night being crystal clear too and frigid but maybe the wind was too high to get below 0.

Do you remember the other one (also February), the 30 hour snowstorm due to a low stalling just offshore with a narrow band of 4-8?  (Would have been more if the snow during the day wasn't so wet.)  I'm thinking early 90s on that one too.

 

 

[mattinpa]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Everyone needs to relax, weenie central in here. Yes, it will be cold for the next few weeks, that means nothing for DJFM. I guess nobody has learned anything from last winter. 

Nothing means nothing, and we will just need to wait and see what happens. 

True, but in my region we were tracking tornadoes on Halloween and 90s not that long ago. A wintry pattern is refreshing to me.

[RU848789]

5 hours ago, BlizzardNYC said:

I always thought snow in November equates to a less snowy winter., Or is that just an old tale??

It's an old tale, since there simply haven't been enough snowy November events in the historical record (especially before about the 20th) to draw statistical conclusions on what that means for the season.  And logically, I simply find it hard to believe that getting measurable snow early in the season, giving that season a head start, would somehow translate to less snow overall in that season.  

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will feature above normal readings. However, an even colder air mass than the most recent one will likely arrive later this week. This air mass could be sufficiently cold to bring New York City its first freeze of the season.

Some of the guidance continues to suggest the potential for the season's first snow in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas Thursday night or Friday. An area running from northeastern Pennsylvania across the New York State border eastward into New England has perhaps the greatest chance of seeing some accumulations. A portion of this area, including Binghamton, has the potential to pick up 4" or more snow.

For New York City, 6/51 (12%) of the EPS ensembles show 1" or more snow. The following are percentages of EPS ensembles showing 1" or more snow at select locations: Allentown: 14%; Binghamton: 82%; Boston: 41%; Bridgeport: 22%; Harrisburg: 10%; Newark: 10%; Poughkeepsie: 39%; Scranton: 45%; and, White Plains: 16%.

After mid-month, a prolonged period of above normal temperatures with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty about the second half of the month. The possibility of a persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The SOI was -34.36 today.

An SOI reading of -30 or below has occurred three times in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.060.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

On November 3, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.367 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 2.149.

Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November.

The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal.

Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to warmer than normal conditions, possibly beginning a few days after mid-month, the depth of the cold during the first half of the month has made it likely that November will finish with a colder than normal anomaly in the region.

Since 1869, New York City has had 30 cases where the November 1-15 mean temperature averaged from 42.5°-46.5°. Just 2/30 (7%) wound up with a mean temperature greater than 46.5° (1934: 48.9° and 1991: 48.3°). None of the 35 cases where the November 1-15 had a mean temperature below 46.0° (including first half mean temperatures below 42.5°), which appears likely in 2019, finished with a monthly mean temperature above 46.5°.

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, mattinpa said:

True, but in my region we were tracking tornadoes on Halloween and 90s not that long ago. A wintry pattern is refreshing to me.

It's an abrupt turnaround. The late week cold looks pretty impressive enough for NYC's first freeze but the cold after that looks like winter. 

I think a lot of places may see teens to low 20s for lows next week. 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 44degs. or 6degs. BN.

Month to date is  -1.9[49.9].          Should be near  -4.6[45.9] by the 13th.

56.8* here at 6am.      59.1* by 8am.          60.5* by 10am.        Got to 61.5* in early PM.

[the_other_guy]

The 2010 patterns show us extremes; and show us extreme cycles

Frankly, I am worried about this huge negative departure followed by the possibility of a major warm up mid month (which is uncertain)

I cant help but feel this is too much, too early and if the 2010s extreme pattern holds, this is screwing us for late Nov and December...when we should be beginning our winter weather.

I supposed I should enjoy it while it lasts and blissfully pretend that history of early snow and 2010s patterns arent a harbinger of things to come... but that is a big pill to swallow

[NycStormChaser]

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[North and West]

3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

The 2010 patterns show us extremes; and show us extreme cycles

Frankly, I am worried about this huge negative departure followed by the possibility of a major warm up mid month (which is uncertain)

I cant help but feel this is too much, too early and if the 2010s extreme pattern holds, this is screwing us for late Nov and December...when we should be beginning our winter weather.

I supposed I should enjoy it while it lasts and blissfully pretend that history of early snow and 2010s patterns arent a harbinger of things to come... but that is a big pill to swallow

I get that, but it's a small sample size and recency bias since it happened last year. I remember it being very cold in November 2002 as well, so I'm not sure how well it holds up. 

[Eduardo]

How, if at all, will Halong’s recurvature in the WPAC affect the pattern toward the mid and latter part of the month?

[bluewave]

Difficult to go against the 2010s warm October followed by cold November pattern.

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Difficult to go against the 2010s warm October and cold November couplet.

There are signs that the PDO region might become better established and grow more + in the next several weeks.  

Also, you have to think that we are deviating to a degree from the warm West Pac , Cold East by nature of the  extreme +IOD and very cool ENSO 1.2.  

Also, the lack of sea ice North of Alaska and other factors as well suggest, at least the possibility,  that after a moderation we may not  be destined for a torch December. 

The record  IOD is a huge player and even the PMM has my attention.

[doncat]

With the talk about early snows and crappy  winters....I had forgotten already that last year fit that bill...had  6" here on 11/15, then just 5.5" from Dec thru Feb... March delivered 10" to at least get me over 20".

[bluewave]

On 11/5/2019 at 9:51 AM, frd said:

There are signs that the PDO region might become better established and grow more + in the next several weeks.  

Also, you have to think that we are deviating to a degree from the warm West Pac , Cold East by nature of the  extreme +IOD and very cool ENSO 1.2.  

Also, the lack of sea ice North of Alaska and other factors as well suggest, at least the possibility,  that after a moderation we may not  be destined for a torch December. 

The record  IOD is a huge player and even the PMM has my attention.

December has featured a temperature departure rebound from November during the 2010s. There have been only 2 colder than normal Decembers since 2010. Both 2010 and 2017 were La Ninas. The only year with a cold November and December was 2017. 
 

Numerous stations out West had their coldest October on record this year. This type of early cold pattern is a change for this decade. The cold is now spreading east for November. So it will be interesting to see if this can disrupt the default milder December pattern of this decade.

 

2010’s December temperature departures
 

.............EWR....NYC....LGA

2018....+2.9....+2.6....+2.3

2017....-1.9......-2.5.....-2.0

2016....+1.2....+0.8....+2.1

2015...+13.3..+13.3...+12.6

2014....+3.6....+3.0....+2.4

2013...+0.4....+1.0......0.0

2012...+4.6....+4.0....+4.5

2011...+6.0....+5.8.....+5.1

2010...-3.6......-4.7......-3.2

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

December has featured a temperature departure rebound from November during the 2010s. There have been only 2 colder than normal Decembers since 2010. Both 2010 and 2017 were La Ninas. The only year with a cold November and December was 2017. 

Numerous stations out West had their coldest October on record this year. This type of early cold pattern is a change for this decade. The cold is now spreading east for November. So it will be interesting to see if this can disrupt the default milder December pattern of this decade.

2010’s December temperature departures
 

.............EWR....NYC....LGA

2018....+2.9....+2.6....+2.3

2017....-1.9......-2.5.....-2.0

2016....+1.2....+0.8....+2.1

2015...+13.3..+13.3...+12.6

2014....+3.6....+3.0....+2.4

2013...+0.4....+1.0......0.0

2012...+4.6....+4.0....+4.5

2011...+6.0....+5.8.....+5.1

2010...-3.6......-4.7......-3.2

December 2010 is the only one with a very negative ao and nao….the last major snowstorm in December was in 2010...