November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the winter forecast below is  closer to 14-15 than 18-19. It will be very promising for seasonal forecasting if this new model is accurate.

 

Back when I first started using analogs without even knowing what an analog was back in the late 80s and early 90s, I used the The Weather Almanac to look up previous years.  The 1985 and 1990 editions of that book are what I had access too and there was no internet around back then.  That book had monthly average temps for every year from 1951 through 1990 and I noticed that winters in which we had a large amount of snow (40" or more), we had an interesting couplet in fall.  In all of those seasons October was below normal temps and November was above normal temps.  It was a 6/6 using the following winters: 1955-56, 1957-58, 1960-61, 1963-64, 1966-67, 1977-78.  We were in a long snow drought back then so I thought if we got that couplet again and it was followed by a very hot summer (which also seemed to be part of the equation), we had a chance at a great winter.  That's why I was so excited when 1993 followed just such a pattern!  And again in 1995, and this time with the aid of the tropics, which seemed so similar to 1933-34 with the predominantly offshore tracks.  Of course, since 2000, something has changed and our winters are vastly different now, so the couplet correlation no longer seems to apply.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I wonder what the temperature range would have been back in 1879?...NYC 38? LGA 38? JFK 32? EWR 32?

I wonder how much the solar min is affecting our temps this year.  Those back to back 99s we had back in July, how much higher would the temps have been with a solar max? Does anyone know?

 

[SnoSki14]

25 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not much of a surprise-there isn’t much to stop this from continuing to amplify. We’re really relying on this being a fast system to keep it flatter but if the northern stream digs more or it slows down, that could be an outcome. 

Just looks like a frontal boundary to me giving us the next cold shot.

If there is snow then it may be with the following system. Pattern isn't too bad for snow chances, even some NAO blocking showing up.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/3/2019 at 11:33 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

There’s no question it has some sort of bad correlation but I don’t believe the snow event itself is the reason.  It’s the pattern which leads to the snow event. Chances are if you see a snow event before 11/20-11/25 in this area you’re under some sort of anomalously cold pattern.  There’s been plenty of evidence that getting too cold too early can cause some sort of atmospheric reshuffle between the mid latitudes and polar regions that impacts the winter.  89-90 is one example and there’s quiet a few others.  

I'm wondering how this ties in to the 6/6 couplet I saw in the data from 1951-1990 where our big snow winters had cold Octobers followed by mild Novembers.  Perhaps the pattern was reloading in November and got favorable just in time to give us a big winter?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just looks like a frontal boundary to me giving us the next cold shot.

If there is snow then it may be with the following system. Pattern isn't too bad for snow chances, even some NAO blocking showing up.

Does the event Ant was talking about on the following Tuesday seem more favorable?  Will the air by then actually be colder than what we'll have on Friday?

 

[uncle W]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder how much the solar min is affecting our temps this year.  Those back to back 99s we had back in July, how much higher would the temps have been with a solar max? Does anyone know?

 

1879 was a year after the solar minimum in Dec. 1878...in July 1936 the all time max of 106 was set  less than a year before the solar max in April 1937...

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Does the event Ant was talking about on the following Tuesday seem more favorable?  Will the air by then actually be colder than what we'll have on Friday?

 

Yes the air should be colder for next weeks possible storm.

[winterwx21]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just looks like a frontal boundary to me giving us the next cold shot.

If there is snow then it may be with the following system. Pattern isn't too bad for snow chances, even some NAO blocking showing up.

Yeah that's the way it has looked to me for awhile too. It looks more like just precip along the cold front thursday night, rather than some kind of storm. Could change to a little wet snow on the backside of the front to the NW of the city, but not a big deal. The next week looks much more interesting.

[Brian5671]

Euro is mainly rain for most here except far N and W.   

[HVSnowLover]

Euro is very amped for Friday but bombs too late for this area, the NW fringe of our zone gets a few inches. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah that's the way it has looked to me for awhile too. It looks more like just precip along the cold front thursday night, rather than some kind of storm. Could change to a little wet snow on the backside of the front to the NW of the city, but not a big deal. The next week looks much more interesting.

Hard to get snow to the coast in November when its 50 degrees on Thursday, need a setup with cold air already entrenched like last November 

[NYCweatherNOW]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Euro is very amped for Friday but bombs too late for this area, the NW fringe of our zone gets a few inches. 

We all get our first flakes with that setup 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Hard to get snow to the coast in November when its 50 degrees on Thursday, need a setup with cold air already entrenched like last November 

Agree-by the time any decent cold air gets in, the storm is gone.   

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Hard to get snow to the coast in November when its 50 degrees on Thursday, need a setup with cold air already entrenched like last November 

An exception to this happened in November 1995 when it was in the 60s the day prior and we got a surprise 3-6 inches overnight into the next morning as a low formed along a front that stalled.

 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

An exception to this happened in November 1995 when it was in the 60s the day prior and we got a surprise 3-6 inches overnight into the next morning as a low formed along a front that stalled.

 

I think that was 11/29 or something very late in the month-this is almost 3 weeks earlier making it all the more difficult.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think that was 11/29 or something very late in the month-this is almost 3 weeks earlier making it all the more difficult.

Yep, I forgot what day it was, but I think it was before Thanksgiving- something like the 19th?

Our most notable cold early November snowstorms were the one we had a week after Sandy and the one we had last year.

Vets Day 1987 would have been big here too but somehow missed us and hit both DC and Boston.

 

[MJO812]

Euro still showing something for mid month

[NYCweatherNOW]

Credit to orh_wtman from New England forum

eps looks much Colder than the operational euro run. Maybe a benchmark track would do it if we could get that cold air to press in 6-8 hours earlier and switch everyone to snow!

[purduewx80]

1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Credit to orh_wtman from New England forum

eps looks much Colder than the operational euro run. Maybe a benchmark track would do it if we could get that cold air press in 6-8 hours earlier and switch everyone to snow!

 

it's not much colder, there are just members indicating a possible turn to snow for the city. overall it's much more amped than it's been, just like the 12z op run.

next week is the one to watch here.

[NYCweatherNOW]

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

it's not much colder, there are just members indicating a possible turn to snow for the city. overall it's much more amped than it's been, just like the 12z op run.

next week is the one to watch here.

I agree the 14-16 timeframe but I would like a dusting lol

[Ericjcrash]

17 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I agree the 14-16 timeframe but I would like a dusting lol

Damn near impossible to get a dusting in NYC in early November especially with avg/mild temps beforehand. Paste, white rain, or rain.

Also 38° this morning with a bit of frost. We're getting there finally.

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

it's not much colder, there are just members indicating a possible turn to snow for the city. overall it's much more amped than it's been, just like the 12z op run.

next week is the one to watch here.

I agree

Next week is alot colder

[SnowGoose69]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, I forgot what day it was, but I think it was before Thanksgiving- something like the 19th?

Our most notable cold early November snowstorms were the one we had a week after Sandy and the one we had last year.

Vets Day 1987 would have been big here too but somehow missed us and hit both DC and Boston.

 

That I believe was one of only 2 storms ever to give 6 inches to DCA and BOS but not also give 6 to NYC.  The other occurred only 10 months prior to that on 1/26/87.  I believe JFK did get 6 on 1/26/87 but LGA and NYC saw way less

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

I always thought snow in November equates to a less snowy winter., Or is that just an old tale??

[NYCweatherNOW]

12 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

I always thought snow in November equates to a less snowy winter., Or is that just an old tale??

In my opinion it’s October and/or when we get snow before northern New England. I think New England getting snow before us is a good sign for the winter to come!

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Back when I first started using analogs without even knowing what an analog was back in the late 80s and early 90s, I used the The Weather Almanac to look up previous years.  The 1985 and 1990 editions of that book are what I had access too and there was no internet around back then.  That book had monthly average temps for every year from 1951 through 1990 and I noticed that winters in which we had a large amount of snow (40" or more), we had an interesting couplet in fall.  In all of those seasons October was below normal temps and November was above normal temps.  It was a 6/6 using the following winters: 1955-56, 1957-58, 1960-61, 1963-64, 1966-67, 1977-78.  We were in a long snow drought back then so I thought if we got that couplet again and it was followed by a very hot summer (which also seemed to be part of the equation), we had a chance at a great winter.  That's why I was so excited when 1993 followed just such a pattern!  And again in 1995, and this time with the aid of the tropics, which seemed so similar to 1933-34 with the predominantly offshore tracks.  Of course, since 2000, something has changed and our winters are vastly different now, so the couplet correlation no longer seems to apply.

 

Yeah, the last below normal  October and above normal November was back in 2009. The new 2010’s couplet a warm October followed by a cold November. The pattern really stands out when you plot the last 20 years.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the last below normal  October and above normal November was back in 2009. The new 2010’s couplet a warm October followed by a cold November. The pattern really stands out when you plot the last 20 years.

 

 

 

Wow, thats amazing, Chris..... any thoughts as to why the sudden change?

Maybe it has to do with changes in the Pacific we've been seeing in this decade and the "warm blob" of water just offshore from the West Coast?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That I believe was one of only 2 storms ever to give 6 inches to DCA and BOS but not also give 6 to NYC.  The other occurred only 10 months prior to that on 1/26/87.  I believe JFK did get 6 on 1/26/87 but LGA and NYC saw way less

We had a crazy streak of winters back then with no 10 inch snowstorms and no 30 inch snowfall winters.  I think it lasted from 1983-84 thru 1991-92.

Thats why it was so challenging to try and predict when the next big snowfall winter would be.  I remember 1991 had such an abnormally cold summer thanks to Pinatubo and even the fall started off really cold, our long range predictors thought for sure it would be that winter, but just like 1989-90 which also had a very cold fall, the pattern changed on a dime.

Then we finally had the one big snowstorm in 1992-93, even though it did change to rain, and then the real whole sale pattern change in 1993-94.  Funny thing about that was that almost every single storm was predicted to either be rain or change to rain and all it ever did was go from snow to a mix.  The large quantity of storms was how we got to 50+ and we ran out of salt lol.  1995-96 was the GOAT but in some ways 1993-94 was worse in terms of how hard it was to predict and handle all those storms. plus two subzero Arctic outbreaks and a major ice storm thrown in there!

 

 

 

 

[Gravity Wave]

11 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 44degs.,or about 5+degs. BN.

Month to date is  -1.7[50.3].         Should be near  -4.5[45.4] by the 12th.

44.5* here at 5am.     46.0 by 7am.    48.0* at 8am.     49.8* at 9am.      53.0* by Noon.       55.0* by 2pm.      Got to 57.0* around 3:30pm.

If the GFS is right we'll keep building on that negative anomaly for another week after that. Moderation comes around the 20th.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow, thats amazing, Chris..... any thoughts as to why the sudden change?

Maybe it has to do with changes in the Pacific we've been seeing in this decade and the "warm blob" of water just offshore from the West Coast?

 

I am guessing that it’s related to the link between the declining Arctic sea ice and warming Pacific. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL077325