November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Ericjcrash]

Canadian is 30 miles away from absolutely crushing everyone. LHV and Connecticut are crushed with 1-2'. QPF is really impressive there.

[TJW014]

14 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Winds are cranking here.

Had a gust to 52 in Mantoloking about an hour ago

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

The apparent safety criteria for balloons vs no balloons is wind gusts greater than 34 MPH. NYC, LGA and JFK have all recorded their peak gusts in the past few hours, while EWR's was last night.

EWR:

LGA:

JFK:

Central Park:

It's horsing out right now ( boat talk for heavy winds ) over here in CNJ. Real gale type stuff. BIL wants to fry a turkey outside. Ok, then.

[Rjay]

Euro...

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Euro...

A NYC weather weenie's wet dream. This reminds me of the snowstorm in December 2003 snowstorm.

[weatherpruf]

14 inches IIRC....missed AC though. Caught us by surprise. It was the biggest that winter, though we had a lot of smaller events that followed.

[uncle W]

there has only been one year with measurable snow in Central Park on 12/1...1880...there was a little snow in 1969 but only a trace was recorded in Central Park...

1880...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1880-12-02/ed-1/seq-5/

[donsutherland1]

Thanksgiving Day featured a bountiful harvest of winds that buffeted much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The 12z ECMWF gave much of the region a lot to be thankful for with its forecast of a major snowfall early next week. While the ECMWF might be overdone, the pattern is conducive for at least some snowfall, even in the big cities, especially from late Monday into Tuesday morning.

In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is concluding its warmest autumn on record with what will likely be its second warmest November on record. Through 5 pm Alaska time, Utqiagvik had a daily high temperature of 27°, which was just short of the daily record of 28° from 1995. Based on the latest guidance, Utqiagvik will likely have a September-November mean temperature ranging from 28.5°-28.6°. The current record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -9.23 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.754.

Daily MJO data was unavailable for November 27. Outgoing long-wave radiation is currently unavailable according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The BOM is working on the issue.

Based on the consistently-modeled idea of a negative to strongly negative EPO (-2.000 to -1.000) to begin December, the first 7 days of December will likely average colder than normal in much of the eastern third to eastern half of the CONUS and southern Canada. However, the EPO will likely go positive and the AO could go strongly positive during the first week of December.

As a result, warmer conditions will likely return after the first week in December. At present, the warmth does not appear to be too impressive. Transient shots of cooler air will remain possible. Should the AO remain elevated at strongly positive levels, the probability of a warmer than normal second half of December would increase.

Overall, the base case remains a somewhat warmer than normal December as a whole, though New England and the Great Lakes region could still wind up cooler than normal.

With December likely to get off to a cool start, Newark, New York City, and Boston will likely see their first measurable snowfall of the season during December 1-3. Philadelphia could also pick up its first measurable snowfall.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.0°. That would make this November the coldest November since 2012 when the monthly mean temperature was 43.9°.

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of November are averaging 38degs., or 5degs. BN 

Month to date is  -3.6[44.4].          November should end at  -3.8[43.9], or 0.5 less than last November.

31* here at 6am.        35* by 11am.         37* by Noon.        41* by 3pm.

 

GFS is 2", CMC is 6", and EURO is 7" for Dec. 2-3.    Cobb Method is 2.1" of Rain! --- with some mixing.     Subsequent threats out to 10 days seem to have vanished, snow wise.

Do not expect to follow this on local radar.     It is down for 5 days during a software/hardware upgrade.    This is part of a nationwide program.

[gravitylover]

51 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The last 2 days of November are averaging 38degs., or 5degs. BN 

Month to date is  -3.6[44.4].          November should end at  -3.8[43.9], or 0.5 less than last November.

31* here at 6am.

GFS is 2", CMC is 6", and EURO is 7" for Dec. 2-3.    Cobb Method is 2.1" of Rain! --- with some mixing.     Subsequent threats out to 10 days seem to have vanished, snow wise.

Do not expect to follow this on local radar.     It is down for 5 days during a software/hardware upgrade.    This is part of a nationwide program.

24 @ 6:30 with a really nice sunrise in progress.

That radar thing is annoying. Not because they need to maintain and upgrade it but that there isn't an alternative. The space between the NOAA radar sites is pretty good and gives reasonable coverage outside of the most mountainous areas and I've never had a problem with that, what gets me is an alternate system has never been put in place. Whether that system is gov't run or commercial it seems to me that there should be one but there isn't. Do airport radars have the ability to be used as weather radar in addition to their primary purpose? 

[the_other_guy]

Interesting tid bit about the radar

28F

Beautiful winter morning

[bluewave]

This November will be remembered for the 4th coldest 8th through 18th on record in NYC. Last year was the 4th coldest 14th through 24th. Outside of February 2015, out coldest periods have been compressed into intervals generally less than 2 weeks long.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Nov 8 to Nov 18	Missing Count
1	1933-11-18	35.6	0
2	1873-11-18	37.3	0
3	1869-11-18	38.7	0
4	2019-11-18	39.1	0
5	1976-11-18	39.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Nov 14 to Nov 24	Missing Count
1	1880-11-24	30.7	0
2	1873-11-24	34.3	0
3	1882-11-24	35.9	0
4	2018-11-24	36.8	0
5	1933-11-24	37.3	0

[frd]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This November will be remembered for the 4th coldest 8th through 18th on record in NYC. Last year was the 4th coldest 14th through 24th. Outside of February 2015, out coldest periods have been compressed into intervals generally less than 2 weeks long.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Nov 8 to Nov 18	Missing Count
1	1933-11-18	35.6	0
2	1873-11-18	37.3	0
3	1869-11-18	38.7	0
4	2019-11-18	39.1	0
5	1976-11-18	39.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Nov 14 to Nov 24	Missing Count
1	1880-11-24	30.7	0
2	1873-11-24	34.3	0
3	1882-11-24	35.9	0
4	2018-11-24	36.8	0
5	1933-11-24	37.3	0

Wondering whether this new research has a link to warmer temps via the MJO phase progression, and the shortened period of cold, regardless of time of year, due to the fact the MJO is spending more time in the warmer phases, as the Indo-Pacific warm pool is effecting the MJO via progression and life cycle.

research link 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4

   

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, frd said:

Wondering whether this new research has a link to warmer temps via the MJO phase progression, and the shortened period of cold, regardless of time of year, due to the fact the MJO is spending more time in the warmer phases, as the Indo-Pacific warm pool is effecting the MJO via progression and life cycle.

research link 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4

   

Yes, I just posted that in the climate change forum with all the charts included. The changes to the MJO have become a big part of our 2010’s weather patterns. It shows what we already figured out. The MJO has been spending more time in the Maritime Continent phases due to the rapid SST warming of the Indio-Pacific warm pool.

[frd]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yes, I just posted that in the climate change forum with all the charts included. The changes to the MJO have become a big part of our 2010’s weather patterns. It shows what we already figured out. The MJO has been spending more time in the Maritime Continent phases due to the rapid SST warming of the Indio-Pacific warm pool.

Do you think we ever see this trend reverse ? 

And, would you speculate that it can potentially reduce the chances of an extended period of severe and durable cold weather locking in here in the East , of the magnitude we saw at times in the late 1970's ?    

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yes, I just posted that in the climate change forum with all the charts included. The changes to the MJO have become a big part of our 2010’s weather patterns. It shows what we already figured out. The MJO has been spending more time in the Maritime Continent phases due to the rapid SST warming of the Indio-Pacific warm pool.

Let's hope the MJO loops through the bad phases a little quicker than last year.

[frd]

29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Let's hope the MJO loops through the bad phases a little quicker than last year.

S

 

 

There does seem to be some differences to last year at time, with possibly a bit less amplitude. 

Last year was agony though, with the slow progression through the warm phases, and that lasted well into Jan. if I recall correctly. 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

There does seem to be some differences to last year at time, with possibly a bit less amplitude. 

Last year was agony though, with the slow progression through the warm phases, and that lasted well into Jan. if I recall correctly. 

 

 

 

Agreed. Our winter was November into early December and March. Amazing we ended up within striking distance to average considering.

[frd]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed. Our winter was November into early December and March. Amazing we ended up within striking distance to average considering.

You believe we follow the same general progression this winter?

I feel we will,  but the colder risks will win out once past early Jan. Also, speculation on my part that we will deal with some significant phasing events and some very cold arctic intrusions. Simple guesswork reveals  the best -EPO period/events in mid- Jan, and the best -NAO event in early to mid Feb and another opportunity in March. ( March to a degree dependent on the declining QBO and any SSW in late Jan. and early Feb) again just some thoughts there. 

[donsutherland1]

Prospects for an appreciable snowfall in and around the New York City Metro Area increased overnight. The single teleconnections fly in the ointment remains the forecast of a negative PNA. Most of the early December snowstorms that dumped 4" or more snow in the New York City area occurred when the PNA was positive. Nevertheless, such a snowfall remains among the plausible scenarios.

The last time New York City received 2" or more snow was March 3-4, 2019 when 5.0" fell.

Following the snowfall, several days of below to much below normal temperatures are likely before warmer air returns following the first week in December. Some of the latest guidance has grown warmer in the extended range.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

You believe we follow the same general progression this winter?

I feel we will,  but the colder risks will win out once past early Jan. Also, speculation on my part that we will deal with some significant phasing events and some very cold arctic intrusions. Simple guesswork reveals  the best -EPO period/events in mid- Jan, and the best -NAO event in early to mid Feb and another opportunity in March. ( March to a degree dependent on the declining QBO and any SSW in late Jan. and early Feb) again just some thoughts there. 

Agreed. Same theme as last winter however the fact that the NAO actually showed up before March, and the fact that the MJO is staying in the better phases a little longer, gives me HOPE for a slightly better outcome. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed. Same theme as last winter however the fact that the NAO actually showed up before March, and the fact that the MJO is staying in the better phases a little longer, gives me HOPE for a slightly better outcome. 

Do you follow Isotherm? I know he has spoken about the solar cycle and in various posts he has alluded to role the solar minimum has on potential impacts within the NAO domain. His seasonal prediction of the NAO has a very good record.  I found some articles/research that seems to reveal a link between the years after the solar min, and the phase of the NAO. 

The interesting part is the lag effects. Seems it could take a year or two, maybe even longer for the impact to be reflected in the NAO domain.  The link was SST based I believe. 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

NYC needs 17.7 inches of snow between now and December 31, 2020 for the new 30 year average, to reach 30 inches per year, when the new 30 year averages are calculated 13 months from now.

The current seasonal snowfall average in NYC since January 1991 is 30.6 inches. The 150 year average is 28.9 inches.

It will be interesting to see if the upcoming event can produce. Decembers have not been overly generous along the coast the last several years.

December snowfall totals Central Park (NYC) the last ten years.
2009... 12.4
2010... 20.1
2011... 0.0
2012... 0.4
2013... 8.6
2014... 1.0
2015... Trace
2016... 3.2
2017... 7.7
2018... 0.0

 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, frd said:

Do you think we ever see this trend reverse ? 

And, would you speculate that it can potentially reduce the chances of an extended period of severe and durable cold weather locking in here in the East , of the magnitude we saw at times in the late 1970's ?    

The coldest NYC has been reach this decade for a DJF average was 2014-2015. It was the only winter to average below freezing during the 2010’s at 31.4 degrees. But it wasn’t close to 1976-1977 which was 28.4 degrees.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1917-1918	25.7	0
2	1880-1881	26.5	0
3	1903-1904	27.3	0
4	1919-1920	27.4	0
-	1874-1875	27.4	0
5	1872-1873	27.7	0
6	1904-1905	28.1	0
7	1935-1936	28.3	0
8	1976-1977	28.4	0
-	1884-1885	28.4	0
-	1882-1883	28.4	0
9	1892-1893	28.5	0
10	1887-1888	28.6	0
11	1878-1879	29.0	0
12	1933-1934	29.1	0
13	1871-1872	29.5	0
14	1922-1923	29.8	0
15	1962-1963	29.9	0
-	1885-1886	29.9	0
-	1876-1877	29.9	0
16	1947-1948	30.0	0
-	1886-1887	30.0	0
-	1883-1884	30.0	0
17	1894-1895	30.2	0
18	1977-1978	30.3	0
19	1969-1970	30.5	0
-	1944-1945	30.5	0
20	1911-1912	30.7	0
21	1958-1959	30.8	0
-	1870-1871	30.8	0
22	1993-1994	31.1	0
-	1934-1935	31.1	0
23	2002-2003	31.2	0
-	1967-1968	31.2	0
-	1909-1910	31.2	0
24	2014-2015	31.4	0
-	1921-1922	31.4	0
25	1898-1899	31.5	0
26	1939-1940	31.6	0
27	1960-1961	31.7	0
-	1916-1917	31.7	0
-	1906-1907	31.7	0
-	1900-1901	31.7	0
28	1913-1914	31.9	0
-	1901-1902	31.9	0

[donsutherland1]

A significant long-duration, two-part winter storm will impact the region Sunday into Tuesday morning. While some snow and sleet could fall in the New York City area on Sunday (with accumulating snow well to the north and west of the City), a larger-impact snowfall is possible Monday into late Monday night as the vigorous upper-level low associated with the system swings eastward and rapidly develops.

The forecast 500 mb pattern for December 2 bears similarities to that of December 24, 2002. The key difference is that the trough on the East Coast is forecast to be south of where it was in 2002.

For now, New York City (Central Park) and Newark appear to be in line for a general 3"-6" snowfall. Locations such as Poughkeepsie and Albany could see 8"-16".

In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is concluding its warmest autumn on record with what will likely be its second warmest November on record with a mean temperature near 16.0°. Based on the latest guidance, Utqiagvik will likely have a September-November mean temperature ranging of 28.6°. The current record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -3.38 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.408.

Daily MJO data was unavailable. Outgoing long-wave radiation is currently unavailable according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The BOM is working on the issue.

Based on the consistently-modeled idea of a negative to strongly negative EPO (-2.000 to -1.000) to begin December, the first 7 days of December will likely average colder than normal in much of the eastern third to eastern half of the CONUS and southern Canada. However, the EPO will likely go positive and the AO could go strongly positive during the first week of December.

As a result, warmer conditions will likely return after the first week in December. At present, the warmth does not appear to be too impressive. Transient shots of cooler air will remain possible. Should the AO remain elevated at strongly positive levels, the probability of a warmer than normal second half of December would increase.

Overall, the base case remains a somewhat warmer than normal December as a whole, though New England and the Great Lakes region could still wind up cooler than normal.

With December likely to get off to a cool start, Newark, New York City, and Boston will likely see their first measurable snowfall of the season during December 1-3. Philadelphia could also pick up its first measurable snowfall.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.9°. That would make this November the coldest November since 2012 when the monthly mean temperature also was 43.9°. There is a chance that the mean temperature could come in at 43.8°. If so, November 2019 would be the coldest November since 1996 when the monthly average temperature was 43.0°.

　

[CIK62]

The last day of November is averaging 44degs., or 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  -3.8[44.1] and should end there.

33* here at 6am.          32* at 7am       40* by Noon.      44* by 2pm.

 

[cardinalland]

It’s a great day to be outside in NYC today. Sunny skies with a few Cirrus. Cirrostratus clouds are approaching though.

[doncat]

Nov finished as 5th coldest here with 42 years of record...Also 5th driest  with 1.65".

[donsutherland1]

New York City finished November with a monthly mean temperature of 43.9°. That made 2019 the coldest November since 2012 when the average temperature was also 43.9°.

A significant long-duration, two-part winter storm will impact the region Sunday into Tuesday morning. While some snow and sleet could fall in the New York City area on Sunday (with accumulating snow well to the north and west of the City), a larger-impact snowfall is possible Monday into late Monday night as the vigorous upper-level low associated with the system swings eastward and rapidly develops. The 18z GFS did not develop this low along the lines of the other guidance and is likely providing a bad solution for both coastal and interior regions of New York State and southern New England.

New York City (Central Park) and Newark continue to appear in line for a general 3"-6" snowfall. While model solutions have varied widely for NYC, 40/51 (78%) EPS members show 3" or more snow for New York City. Therefore, the above range still appears reasonable. Locations such as Binghamton, Poughkeepsie and Albany could see 8"-16".

Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) experienced its warmest autumn on record by far with an estimated seasonal mean temperature of 28.7°. There remains a chance that the final figure could be 28.8° depending on today's minimum temperature, which could occur near midnight Alaska time. The previous record was 26.0°, which was set in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was +0.38 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.491.

Daily MJO data was unavailable. Outgoing long-wave radiation is currently unavailable according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The BOM is working on the issue.

Based on the consistently-modeled idea of a negative to strongly negative EPO (-2.000 to -1.000) to begin December, the first 7 days of December will likely average colder than normal in much of the eastern third to eastern half of the CONUS and southern Canada. However, the EPO will likely go positive and the AO could go strongly positive during the first week of December.

As a result, warmer conditions will likely return after the first week in December. Overall, December will likely finish somewhat warmer than normal to warmer than normal across the region.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA.

[NorthShoreWx]

The primary low is dishing it out in the upper midwest.  and ... DLH has "plow cams":
https://www.weather.gov/dlh/weatherstory