November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[HVSnowLover]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

With a primary doing what it’s doing at the this time of year it’s a solid bet the coast is rain. In Jan/feb it would be still be a stretch. There is a chance if the secondary really bombs and is in the perfect spot you could see a flip to snow with the CCB but that’s about it

Trends  overnight are ugly, primary holds on longer. Agree this is looking like another rainstorm. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Trends  overnight are ugly, primary holds on longer. Agree this is looking like another rainstorm. 

Euro ensembles are all over. Nothing is done 5 days out.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Euro ensembles are all over. Nothing is done 5 days out.

I can't remember the last time a storm trended well, just like last winter so far every storm trends worse as we get closer to the event. Agree it's 5 days out but it's really a tough setup to expect much snow.  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I can't remember the last time a storm trended well, just like last winter so far every storm trends worse as we get closer to the event. Agree it's 5 days out but it's really a tough setup to expect much snow.  

Blocking patterns are so fickle.  You can have a big adjustment in 1 model run. 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Storms only trend well when we have favorable patterns.

This pattern is favorable 

[purduewx80]

19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This pattern is favorable 

Ventrice's latest update (clients/IBM mets only) suggests you'll enjoy Jan-Feb. Lights out after this weekend for a bit though.

[HVSnowLover]

59 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Blocking patterns are so fickle.  You can have a big adjustment in 1 model run. 

Euro has been pretty steady showing this as an inland storm at best, GFS is really the only model that made this a big storm for the coast on some runs. Euro has been more consistent than the GFS this year so far. I never really bought the low tracking SE like the GFS was showing a few days ago, you need really intense blocking for that 

[MJO812]

Jb  calling for 3-6 for NYC 

[HVSnowLover]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Jb  calling for 3-6 for NYC 

I wonder what that is based on?

[SnowGoose69]

The NAM at 84 is only a tad drier than the GFS 

[JustinRP37]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I wonder what that is based on?

He needs more clicks. The holidays are coming up. All about the ads! Seriously why people listen to that clown still is beyond me. Oh wait, he routinely calls for frigid cold to fit his narrative.

[HVSnowLover]

The primary kills the whole storm on the gfs for basically everyone, even when 850s crash surface still very warm.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s what happens with a firehose Pacific Jet and run up to near record early December AO spike.

What goes up does come down. Hopefully the crash is as extreme as the rise...

[MJO812]

This storm has a good chance with the block 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The primary kills the whole storm on the gfs for basically everyone, even when 850s crash surface still very warm.

If the secondary really bombs then we could all flip to snow.

The surface looks a few degrees colder than with the last system and a lot of people reported sleet and a brief changeover especially further southwest with that one. 

This would be a much better outcome in January as even a Pacific airmass would be cold enough for snow.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the secondary really bombs then we could all flip to snow.

The surface looks a few degrees colder than with the last system and a lot of people reported sleet and a brief changeover especially further southwest with that one. 

This would be a much better outcome in January as even a Pacific airmass would be cold enough for snow.

It seems rare for NYC to ever get a good snow when the primary low is going to Michigan regardless of time of season. If it was mid winter there would probably be more front end frozen precip but beyond that don't think it would change much with this setup.

[HVSnowLover]

CMC is colder this run, solid icestorm for our interior sections

[NYCweatherNOW]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

CMC is colder this run, solid icestorm for our interior sections

Wrong thread! And where did you see the Canadian 

[gravitylover]

45 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I wonder what that is based on?

Ad revenue

[bluewave]

Looks like the strongest winds tomorrow should be between 10am and 2 pm. Temperatures rising to 50 or higher will steepen the low level lapse rates. So that’s when wind gusts into the 40’s could occur.

 

NEW YORK CITY-KENNEDY    
 KJFK   GFS MOS GUIDANCE   11/27/2019  1200 UTC                      
 DT /NOV  27/NOV  28                /NOV  29                /NOV  30 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    45          53          36          46    31 
 TMP  56 55 52 52 50 47 45 49 51 50 45 43 40 38 37 42 44 43 39 36 33 
 DPT  49 46 43 43 40 35 32 31 29 26 24 26 27 24 23 21 19 17 16 14 12 
 CLD  OV OV BK BK BK BK BK BK BK SC FW CL CL CL FW FW FW CL CL CL FW 
 WDR  17 18 22 26 28 28 29 30 32 33 34 33 34 34 33 34 33 34 33 34 34 
 WSP  09 15 19 21 24 23 19 23 26 24 20 19 15 14 13 14 15 14 14 13 11 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the strongest winds tomorrow should be between 10am and 2 pm. Temperatures rising to 50 or higher will steepen the low level lapse rates. So that’s when wind gusts into the 40’s could occur.

 

NEW YORK CITY-KENNEDY    
 KJFK   GFS MOS GUIDANCE   11/27/2019  1200 UTC                      
 DT /NOV  27/NOV  28                /NOV  29                /NOV  30 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    45          53          36          46    31 
 TMP  56 55 52 52 50 47 45 49 51 50 45 43 40 38 37 42 44 43 39 36 33 
 DPT  49 46 43 43 40 35 32 31 29 26 24 26 27 24 23 21 19 17 16 14 12 
 CLD  OV OV BK BK BK BK BK BK BK SC FW CL CL CL FW FW FW CL CL CL FW 
 WDR  17 18 22 26 28 28 29 30 32 33 34 33 34 34 33 34 33 34 33 34 34 
 WSP  09 15 19 21 24 23 19 23 26 24 20 19 15 14 13 14 15 14 14 13 11 

1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Wrong thread! And where did you see the Canadian 

The CMC Precip type maps, Euro also looks a little colder

[the_other_guy]

I really want to fly tomorrow...

-Snoopy

 

[purduewx80]

Could see a brief thunderstorm the next few hours as potent upper level energy, decent lapse rates and moisture advection associated w/ the low-level jet sweep through the region. They've been more widespread upstate and isolated in Pennsylvania so far. Don't blink or you might miss them - they're moving along at 60KT to the E/NE.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

It seems rare for NYC to ever get a good snow when the primary low is going to Michigan regardless of time of season. If it was mid winter there would probably be more front end frozen precip but beyond that don't think it would change much with this setup.

Agreed, you want to be above 80 for this type of setup regardless of the time of year. 

[MJO812]

59 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I really want to fly tomorrow...

-Snoopy

 

Where are you ?

I'm working the floats now on 81st and columbus.

[the_other_guy]

I was on 77th

[MJO812]

Many huge hits on the eps for the coast

 

Wow

[Eduardo]

4 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

Ventrice's latest update (clients/IBM mets only) suggests you'll enjoy Jan-Feb. Lights out after this weekend for a bit though.

Sounds like last year.  Closed the shades after the first weekend of December and never opened them back up.  Hoping we don’t endure the same MJO madness this year.

Broadly-speaking, seems like we are planting a fork in the road—one way leads toward a 2013-14-type our once and the other takes us toward 2018-19’s lair of doom.  Is that somewhat accurate?

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Could see a brief thunderstorm the next few hours as potent upper level energy, decent lapse rates and moisture advection associated w/ the low-level jet sweep through the region. They've been more widespread upstate and isolated in Pennsylvania so far. Don't blink or you might miss them - they're moving along at 60KT to the E/NE.

 

Yeah, thunderstorm now in Bergen County with the steep mid-level lapse rates.

 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

31 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Sounds like last year.  Closed the shades after the first weekend of December and never opened them back up.  Hoping we don’t endure the same MJO madness this year.

Broadly-speaking, seems like we are planting a fork in the road—one way leads toward a 2013-14-type our once and the other takes us toward 2018-19’s lair of doom.  Is that somewhat accurate?

We cannot plant a fork in anything. Mother nature will do whatever she plans to do. We can cry, bitch, scream at the sky, drive an electric car, put a windmill on top of our house, etc, etc.. It's all meaningless.