November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[purduewx80]

5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Any thoughts on winds for Parade Balloons on Thursday?

Models have backed off what they were showing a few days ago. Probably 30-40MPH gusts from what I'm seeing today.

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Models have backed off what they were showing a few days ago. Probably 30-40MPH gusts from what I'm seeing today.

I think worst case the balloons run close to the ground.

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The part about where the core of the strongest winds would be got cut off

Here you go. I just wanted to highlight the unusual storm motion and strength. The Pacific Jet continues to make headlines. 

DISCUSSION...Models remain in good agreement with the 
  historically deep low moving onto the coast of Southern Oregon 
  this afternoon. Models continue to show a very deep low pressure 
  center around 973 mb when it hits the coast, this is lower than 
  the 975 mb low of the historic Nov 9-10 storm in 1975.  
   
  The low is expected to hit the coast near Brookings late this 
  afternoon, moving over northern Klamath and Lake counties a little 
  before sunrise Wednesday as it continues to weaken after moving 
  inland. Discussion on each weather element is below; 
   
  WIND...Low pressure will rapidly intensify today. The storm will  
  undergo bombogenesis, with the pressure lowering to around 973 mb 
  by 4 pm PST. This is a greater than 40 mb drop in just 24 hours.  
  A "bomb cyclone" is defined as a 24 mb drop in 24 hours, so this  
  one is almost double that and wind impacts will be felt across the 
  entire area.  
   
  What makes this storm unique is the trajectory that it will take  
  as it deepens and moves inland. Rather than a deepening system  
  moving from SW to NE inside 130W, which typically bring our  
  strongest coastal and inland wind storms in SW Oregon and northern  
  California (and onshore gradients ALL along the coast), this one  
  will be moving in from NW to SE as it moves inland this evening.  
  This will focus the core of the strongest winds (and onshore  
  gradient) for the headlands/beaches from Cape Blanco southward.  
  Winds in those places will likely gust in excess of 75 mph with  
  gusts in excess of 100 mph possible at exposed areas and  
  headlands. This is a dangerous storm and we don`t want to downplay 
  the winds for areas farther north, but an easterly (offshore)  
  gradient usually results in the winds getting blocked somewhat by  
  the terrain. We are still expecting gusts of 45 to 55 mph at North 
  Bend, but that`s the reason it should be somewhat lower there.  
   

[TJW014]

Yeah I am late to this but I had to laugh when I was 6" 10:1 for my location. No way, not gonna happen

[Brian5671]

29 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

Yeah I am late to this but I had to laugh when I was 6" 10:1 for my location. No way, not gonna happen

the euro shows an inland solution which makes alot more sense given the time of year

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

the euro shows an inland solution which makes alot more sense given the time of year

Many more Euro solutions to go, but yeah, that map makes sense just based on climo alone 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

the euro shows an inland solution which makes alot more sense given the time of year

I would agree if it wasn't for the unusual pattern. 

I've never seen a secondary depicted to move ESE like that when off the Delmarva especially with a primary so far north. 

We shall see if today's Euro sticks to its guts or decides to trend south. If the stronger 50/50 low is correct then the low will be shunted south. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

Many more Euro solutions to go, but yeah, that map makes sense just based on climo alone 

Yeah. I'd be cautious about this one for the coast. The primary low not transferring quick enough is one scenario that's glaringly bad for the coast. Another problem is dry-slotting. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

the euro shows an inland solution which makes alot more sense given the time of year

Has the Euro ever gotten a storm wrong? People take the euro like it's a god.

I'm more worried about suppression with the blocking up north.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Has the Euro ever gotten a storm wrong? People take the euro like it's a god.

I'm more worried about suppression with the blocking up north.

model with the best verification score?  The Euro and EPS.     I'd go with that generally speaking-people throw out 144 hr CMC and GFS solutions like they're gospel since they show snow

[bluewave]

The first time Newark made it above 60 degrees since November 11th.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature
2019-11-01	62
2019-11-02	53
2019-11-03	55
2019-11-04	57
2019-11-05	61
2019-11-06	56
2019-11-07	59
2019-11-08	41
2019-11-09	41
2019-11-10	53
2019-11-11	61
2019-11-12	55
2019-11-13	35
2019-11-14	46
2019-11-15	52
2019-11-16	43
2019-11-17	43
2019-11-18	43
2019-11-19	50
2019-11-20	51
2019-11-21	55
2019-11-22	53
2019-11-23	46
2019-11-24	45
2019-11-25	54
2019-11-26	61 so far

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first time Newark made it above 60 degrees since November 11th.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature
2019-11-01	62
2019-11-02	53
2019-11-03	55
2019-11-04	57
2019-11-05	61
2019-11-06	56
2019-11-07	59
2019-11-08	41
2019-11-09	41
2019-11-10	53
2019-11-11	61
2019-11-12	55
2019-11-13	35
2019-11-14	46
2019-11-15	52
2019-11-16	43
2019-11-17	43
2019-11-18	43
2019-11-19	50
2019-11-20	51
2019-11-21	55
2019-11-22	53
2019-11-23	46
2019-11-24	45
2019-11-25	54
2019-11-26	61 so far

It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood... 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood... 

Absolutely. Great day to get out and see the newly arrived snowy owls.

 

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The first time Newark made it above 60 degrees since November 11th.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature
2019-11-01	62
2019-11-02	53
2019-11-03	55
2019-11-04	57
2019-11-05	61
2019-11-06	56
2019-11-07	59
2019-11-08	41
2019-11-09	41
2019-11-10	53
2019-11-11	61
2019-11-12	55
2019-11-13	35
2019-11-14	46
2019-11-15	52
2019-11-16	43
2019-11-17	43
2019-11-18	43
2019-11-19	50
2019-11-20	51
2019-11-21	55
2019-11-22	53
2019-11-23	46
2019-11-24	45
2019-11-25	54
2019-11-26	61 so far

we have not seen any high minimums so far this month...51 on the fifth is the highest minimum so far in NYC...Newark's highest minimum is 45 on the fifth...

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, uncle W said:

we have not seen any high minimums so far this month...51 on the fifth is the highest minimum so far in NYC...Newark's highest minimum is 45 on the fifth...

Yeah, the cold minimums took the lead this month.

NYC through 11-25

Max....50.5....-4.2

Min.....36.9....-5.4

Avg.....43.7....-4.8

[Ericjcrash]

I wonder how many people are secretly or not so secretly furious the GFS just drastically cut the coast out next week lol. Bickering over a D6 gfs run 

[SnoSki14]

43 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I wonder how many people are secretly or not so secretly furious the GFS just drastically cut the coast out next week lol. Bickering over a D6 gfs run 

I don't know why anyone would get upset over day 6 runs. They're gonna change numerous times before then.

[TJW014]

Pretty ballsy of the GFS for NNJ and E PA. No way. 

[bluewave]

2 years in a row making a top 10 snowiest November in Caribou.

 

[donsutherland1]

Above normal temperatures prevailed again in much of the region today. Today, New York City reached 61°. That was the highest temperature since November 11 when the thermometer reached 62°.

In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is concluding its warmest autumn on record. Based on the latest guidance, Utqiagvik will likely have a September-November mean temperature ranging from 28.2°-28.4°. The current record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -8.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.745.

Daily MJO data was unavailable for November 25.

Recent runs of the GEFS, ECMWF, and EPS all continue to suggest that the AO could go positive during the first week in December. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO will go strongly positive.

Based on the consistently-modeled idea of a negative to strongly negative EPO (-2.000 to -1.000) to begin December, the first 7 to perhaps 10 days of December will likely average colder than normal in much of the eastern third to eastern half of the CONUS and southern Canada. Warmer conditions will likely return as Atlantic blocking dissipates for at least a period of time. The base case remains a somewhat warmer than normal December as a whole, though New England and the Great Lakes region could still wind up cooler than normal. Should the AO rise to strongly positive levels, the risk of greater warmth than described above would increase.

With December likely to get off to a cool start, the potential for at least some snowfall in the Philadelphia to Boston area could exist. The first such opportunity could occur during the December 1-3 timeframe. The risk of measurable snow in parts of this area, including New York City and Newark, has increased in recent days.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive.

The latest guidance now suggests that the PNA could be somewhat positive during the December 1-3 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 will likely be the coldest November since 2012 when the monthly mean temperature was 43.9°.

[doncat]

Made it to 60° today after a am low of 34°...Any rain we see tomorrow should be light so with 1.65" for the month, this would be the first month with under 2" since Nov of 2017.

[HVSnowLover]

3 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

I wonder how many people are secretly or not so secretly furious the GFS just drastically cut the coast out next week lol. Bickering over a D6 gfs run 

The Euro has been more consistent so I'd say this favors the interior but is still hard to call, also the timeframe does keep getting pushed back, seems like mainly a Monday storm now with only light overruning precip on Sunday. Models still have a lot to sort out here.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

8 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

The Euro has been more consistent so I'd say this favors the interior but is still hard to call, also the timeframe does keep getting pushed back, seems like mainly a Monday storm now with only light overruning precip on Sunday. Models still have a lot to sort out here.

With a primary doing what it’s doing at the this time of year it’s a solid bet the coast is rain. In Jan/feb it would be still be a stretch. There is a chance if the secondary really bombs and is in the perfect spot you could see a flip to snow with the CCB but that’s about it

[MJO812]

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

With a primary doing what it’s doing at the this time of year it’s a solid bet the coast is rain. In Jan/feb it would be still be a stretch. There is a chance if the secondary really bombs and is in the perfect spot you could see a flip to snow with the CCB but that’s about it

I agree that  this is mostly rain for alot of areas but  we still should watch it. 

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of November are averaging 44degs., or just Normal.

Month to date is  -4.3[44.0].        November should end at  -3.7[44.0].

51* here at 6am.        53* by 8am.    55* by 11am.     Still 55* at Noon.     56* at 1pm.

EURO/GFS are 1" and 4" now for Dec.2,3.       Model outputs have been psychotic.    Temps. for the storm have ranged from 26-50 and precipitation from 0"-2" and Snow as high 10", over last 3 days.    I want my taxpayer's  money back!

[the_other_guy]

39F

Last night I took a quick ride into the city just after 10pm to pick up tickets.

55F in midtown, 41F at home.

The UHI really ratchets up the night before a cold front with a SW wind. Ive noticed it several times.

Why is that?

[doncat]

10 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

39F

Last night I took a quick ride into the city just after 10pm to pick up tickets.

55F in midtown, 41F at home.

The UHI really ratchets up the night before a cold front with a SW wind. Ive noticed it several times.

Why is that?

Any night with light winds, mostly clear skies and a relatively dry airmass will do it...same here last night, 10-15° cooler.

[bluewave]

NYC is currently the 2nd coldest December of the 2010’s behind 2012 and close to 2018. But we didn’t get the record November snowstorms of 2012 and 2018. The cold departures have been shrinking as the 17th was our last -10 day. That’s when we lost the Arctic air.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2012	43.9	0
2	2019	44.0	4
3	2018	44.4	0
4	2014	45.3	0
-	2013	45.3	0
6	2017	46.6	0
7	2010	47.9	0
8	2016	49.8	0
9	2011	51.9	0
10	2015	52.8	0

[donsutherland1]

The hemispheric meteorological situation is quite dynamic as November nears a conclusion. Some of the factors that contributed to what is all but certain to be a cold November outcome in the eastern half of the CONUS along with much of eastern Canada, are now abating.

The EPO was negative to strongly negative for 14 of the first 15 (93%) days of November. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was negative to strongly negative on 13/15 (92%) days of November and has been negative every day beginning November 3.

However, the EPO has now been fluctuating between weakly negative and weakly positive. The AO is forecast to rise sharply perhaps to +3.000 or above in early December.

Indeed, the recent changes in the CFSv2 December forecasts provide a hint of the changing conditions. The CFSv2 is now in the skillful part of its monthly forecasting range.

CFSv2 Monthly Forecasts for December: 11/19-11/27:

Through December 6, no significant stratospheric warming events are likely (EPS). The recent minor warming will have little impact on the polar vortex. While rumors have been flying on Social Media about an imminent significant or major stratospheric warming event, there remains little credible evidence for such an event through 240 hours. Not suprisingly, the idea that the much hyped event would occur during the opening of December now appears unlikely to verify.

As noted in past winters, Social Media is a poor place to obtain stratospheric information. With a handful of exceptions, most of those commenting on such events simply read forecast 10 mb charts. However, the atmosphere is three-dimensional. What happens at 10 mb won't necessarily occur above or below. One needs to look at all the layers of the atmosphere before reaching conclusions. Not surprisingly, there are many more calls for such warmings on Social Media than typically verify. Usually, such events occur once or sometimes twice during an entire winter. They are less frequent early in the winter. Some winters also see none. These are important reminders that readers should be wary of such calls, especially as such events are not well-forecast at long timescales.

The strong model consensus for the AO to go positive and then strongly positive is consistent with the state of stratosphere.

Were the AO to rise to +4.000 as shown on a few ensemble members, December would be very likely to wind up warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region and perhaps much of the East. Such cases are uncommon. Since 1950, there have been three such cases: 1979, 2011, and 2013.

Finally, the MJO's progression through Phases 6, 7, and 8 in November at high amplitude have often preceded a mild December in the East.

All said, while the first week of December could wind up cooler than normal in the East, with perhaps the first measurable snow of the season in Boston, New York City, and Newark, but not a lot of snow, the idea that warmer conditions could develop after the first week to perhaps 10 days of December seems reasonable. Overall, given the forecast teleconnections, the probability of a somewhat warmer than normal December in the East (New England might be an exception, but that is not assured) has increased.

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The hemispheric meteorological situation is quite dynamic as November nears a conclusion. Some of the factors that contributed to what is all but certain to be a cold November outcome in the eastern half of the CONUS along with much of eastern Canada, are now abating.

The EPO was negative to strongly negative for 14 of the first 15 (93%) days of November. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was negative to strongly negative on 13/15 (92%) days of November and has been negative every day beginning November 3.

However, the EPO has now been fluctuating between weakly negative and weakly positive. The AO is forecast to rise sharply perhaps to +3.000 or above in early December.

Indeed, the recent changes in the CFSv2 December forecasts provide a hint of the changing conditions. The CFSv2 is now in the skillful part of its monthly forecasting range.

CFSv2 Monthly Forecasts for December: 11/19-11/27:

Through December 6, no significant stratospheric warming events are likely (EPS). The recent minor warming will have little impact on the polar vortex. While rumors have been flying on Social Media about an imminent significant or major stratospheric warming event, there remains little credible evidence for such an event through 240 hours. Not suprisingly, the idea that the much hyped event would occur during the opening of December now appears unlikely to verify.

As noted in past winters, Social Media is a poor place to obtain stratospheric information. With a handful of exceptions, most of those commenting on such events simply read forecast 10 mb charts. However, the atmosphere is three-dimensional. What happens at 10 mb won't necessarily occur above or below. One needs to look at all the layers of the atmosphere before reaching conclusions. Not surprisingly, there are many more calls for such warmings on Social Media than typically verify. Usually, such events occur once or sometimes twice during an entire winter. They are less frequent early in the winter. Some winters also see none. These are important reminders that readers should be wary of such calls, especially as such events are not well-forecast at long timescales.

The strong model consensus for the AO to go positive and then strongly positive is consistent with the state of stratosphere.

Were the AO to rise to +4.000 as shown on a few ensemble members, December would be very likely to wind up warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region and perhaps much of the East. Such cases are uncommon. Since 1950, there have been three such cases: 1979, 2011, and 2013.

Finally, the MJO's progression through Phases 6, 7, and 8 in November at high amplitude have often preceded a mild December in the East.

All said, while the first week of December could wind up cooler than normal in the East, with perhaps the first measurable snow of the season in Boston, New York City, and Newark, but not a lot of snow, the idea that warmer conditions could develop after the first week to perhaps 10 days of December seems reasonable. Overall, given the forecast teleconnections, the probability of a somewhat warmer than normal December in the East (New England might be an exception, but that is not assured) has increased.

Thanks Don,

Hopefully this is not just a repeat of last year, and we circle back to the 7 8 1 MJO phases quicker to save January.