November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[North and West]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah I think Dec is shot....

I disagree with you (and I say this with probably half of the knowledge and expertise that you have) if only because things are so wild around here from one day to the next. We'll all be lamenting sixty degrees tomorrow, and then if there's snow in a week, we'll all go out of our collective minds. 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah I think Dec is shot....

What?

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What?

AO going +, NAO+, -PNA    Good luck with anything sustained with that

[White Gorilla]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

AO going +, NAO+, -PNA    Good luck with anything with that

And that is not set in stone, nor do we know duration.  Given recent Decembers, it is understandable to be somewhat pessimistic, but I am cautiously optimistic this time around. 

[nycwinter]

44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

AO going +, NAO+, -PNA    Good luck with anything sustained with that

let it be known what comes around goes around!!

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

AO going +, NAO+, -PNA    Good luck with anything sustained with that

Have you seen the weeklies ? Yes they are irractic but they really improved for last half of the month. 

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

And that is not set in stone, nor do we know duration.  Given recent Decembers, it is understandable to be somewhat pessimistic, but I am cautiously optimistic this time around. 

Remember how the good pattern was supposed to show up last year and never came ? Hopefully it's the opposite  this winter. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Have you seen the weeklies ? Yes they are irractic but they really improved for last half of the month. 

Today's?  I have not.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Have you seen the weeklies ? Yes they are irractic but they really improved for last half of the month. 

Not much skill from the weeklies beyond day 8-10. That’s why they show something different every time they are run. It’s actually a good thing so people don’t have to waste their money on an expensive subscription.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Not much skill from the weeklies beyond day 8-10. That’s why they show something different every time they are run. It’s actually a good thing so people don’t have to waste their money on an expensive subscription.

yeah-they were worthless last winter...but just saw elsewhere that they are cold for the mid to late December time frame-take it for what it's worth-they're a tool, nothing more

[uncle W]

the weeklies are really weaklies...very weak...with an ao forecast to be very positive to start is record warmth not far behind?...that's if the ao gets as high as +5...there have been a few years when the ao was mostly negative in November causing it to be cold but then turn positive the end of Nov into early December...1959 was one of those years but the ao went from a mid Nov low of -5.8 to an early December + 2.5...that quickly became negative again for a while...the month turned out milder than average but was snowier than average...this year was -3.6 in November and forecast to get as high as + 5...

[EasternLI]

Screw the weaklies. I'm just appreciating the aleutian low/ +pna look that has been building the past 4 runs in the extended eps. And that continued today. But everyone is busy canceling winter, in November. 

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

The differences aloft are drastic. GFS seems like the favored solution based on telleconnections. Storm has nowhere to go but south on the GFS. Cold too

[NYCweatherNOW]

Gfs looks great for Sunday’s event. By the way we got a thread for December here

 

 

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah-they were worthless last winter...but just saw elsewhere that they are cold for the mid to late December time frame-take it for what it's worth-they're a tool, nothing more

One problem is that the models can’t really reliably resolve the MJO accurately enough beyond 6-10 days. Once the MJO  starts to become active, models go into short term correction mode and the older runs become worthless. We saw this often last winter with the models constantly playing catch up.

 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One problem is that the models can’t really reliably resolve the MJO accurately enough beyond 6-10 days. Once the MJO  starts to become active, models go into short term correction mode and the older runs become worthless. We saw this a lot last winter with the models constantly playing catch up.

 

Yep and I remember the MJO kept correcting to 4-5-6 which is horrible in the winter.  Hopefully we can see some 7-8-1 this year

[Eduardo]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One problem is that the models can’t really reliably resolve the MJO accurately enough beyond 6-10 days. Once the MJO  starts to become active, models go into short term correction mode and the older runs become worthless. We saw this a lot last winter with the models constantly playing catch up.

 

Chris, what are our chances of becoming mired in the unfavorable MJO phases again this year given current SST configuration?

 

Trends today look a tad less hopeless.  IIRC, history shows that +AO December's tend not only to be less favorable for cold and snow, but they also tend to presage below normal snowfall for the entire winter...which makes sense since prolonged PAC air into the higher latitudes scours out our source region and erodes precious snowcover up there.

 

We have to hope that the coming AO spike is muted and short-lived.  Time will tell.  Fingers are crossed! 

[Tatamy]

21 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Gravity it was quite an amazing ride,,,I am NOT exaggerating when I say in all my years of driving in snow this was by far the scariest and I have had some white knucklers . The sides of the road on grassy areas leading up to Windsor were white in areas but for the most part they had nothing and Im not sure when it happened but I was watching the temp on my dashboard much of the ride but it suddenly hit 30 degrees and EVERYTHING got white and the road was real bad.I had checked the weather reports and models and  I expected 1 to 3 or 2 - 4 in Binghamton but there was nothing in Binghamton when I drove thru, hardly a flake and I don't think I even had my wipers on. 

I had the same experience driving from Reading PA to Lancaster PA on Sunday morning.  Went from cloudy skies with temperatures near 40 to heavy snow with the temperature dropping to 34 in just a few miles.  The ground had about a half inch however there was slush covering the highway.  There is no significant elevation in that area however there was heavy snow with visibility down to 1/4 mile.  Scary thing is the other drivers were not slowing down as much as they needed to.

[White Gorilla]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Screw the weaklies. I'm just appreciating the aleutian low/ +pna look that has been building the past 4 runs in the extended eps. And that continued today. But everyone is busy canceling winter, in November. 

Not me!  I predict an average season for snow. 

[donsutherland1]

Above normal temperatures prevailed in much of the region today. Tomorrow will likely be even warmer with temperatures topping out in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the Middle Atlantic region.

In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is concluding its warmest autumn on record. Based on the latest guidance, Utqiagvik will likely have a September-November mean temperature ranging from 28.1°-28.5°. The current record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -13.62 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.329.

Daily MJO data was unavailable for November 24.

Even as the recent MJO progression through Phases 6, 7 and into 8 at high amplitude has typically preceded a mild December, there remains uncertainty concerning the longer-term evolution of the teleconnections. However, recent runs of the GEFS, ECMWF, and EPS all suggest that the AO could go positive during the first week in December. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO will go strongly positive. With no significant stratospheric warming events likely through at least December 4, there could be an elevated likelihood that the AO will go positive during the first week in December.

Based on the consistently-modeled idea of a negative to strongly negative EPO (-2.000 to -1.000) to begin December, at least the first 7-10 days of December will likely be colder than normal in much of the eastern third to eastern half of the CONUS and southern Canada. Warmer conditions could return should Atlantic blocking dissipate. Unseasonable warmth will likely prevail in much of Alaska, including areas that are experiencing their warmest autumn on record. The base case remains a somewhat warmer than normal December as a whole, though New England and the Great Lakes region could be cooler than normal.

With December likely to get off to a cold start, the potential for at least some snowfall in the Philadelphia to Boston area could exist. The first such opportunity could occur during the December 1-3 timeframe.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 will likely be the coldest November since 2012 when the monthly mean temperature was 43.9°.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

AO going +, NAO+, -PNA    Good luck with anything sustained with that

Whats up with Sunday and Monday?  Looks like snow has entered into the forecast now.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Not me!  I predict an average season for snow. 

That's a decent prediction but would be a first for this decade.  My average seasonal snowfall is 22".  So far every season has either been less than 20 inches or more than 30 inches lol.

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of November are averaging 47.5degs., or about 4degs.AN.

Month to date is  -4.9[43.7].        November should end near  -3.4[44.3].

46* here at 6am.       50* by 10am.      52* by 11am.        59* by 2pm.       Failed to reach 60*

Both GFS/EURO are under 3" Snow for Dec. 02.

[bluewave]

The Pacific Jet continues to exhibit extreme behavior. 

This low is unprecedented in its strength and track. It`s also  
  historic because storms of this magnitude have not been observed on  
  this track in the last 40 years or more! 

What makes this storm unique is the trajectory that it will take  
  as it deepens and moves inland. Rather than a deepening system  
  moving from SW to NE inside 130W, which typically bring our  
  strongest coastal and inland wind storms in SW Oregon and northern  
  California (and onshore gradients ALL along the coast), this one  
  will be moving in from NW to SE as it moves onshore Tuesday evening.  
  This will focus the core of the strongest winds (and onshore  

[doncat]

Calm cold night, 34° this am...Just about normal for the date.

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, doncat said:

Calm cold night, 34° this am...Just about normal for the date.

37 in se Annadale...44 in Central Park...

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Pacific Jet continues to exhibit extreme behavior. 

This low is unprecedented in its strength and track. It`s also  
  historic because storms of this magnitude have not been observed on  
  this track in the last 40 years or more! 

What makes this storm unique is the trajectory that it will take  
  as it deepens and moves inland. Rather than a deepening system  
  moving from SW to NE inside 130W, which typically bring our  
  strongest coastal and inland wind storms in SW Oregon and northern  
  California (and onshore gradients ALL along the coast), this one  
  will be moving in from NW to SE as it moves onshore Tuesday evening.  
  This will focus the core of the strongest winds (and onshore  

The part about where the core of the strongest winds would be got cut off

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, uncle W said:

37 in se Annadale...44 in Central Park...

40 at JFK and 37 at Valley Stream, nice radiational cooling night!

 

[dmillz25]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

40 at JFK and 37 at Valley Stream, nice radiational cooling night!

 

Got down to 41 here in bed stuy

[the_other_guy]

Any thoughts on winds for Parade Balloons on Thursday?