EastonSN+ Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Pretty good agreement between the EPS and GEFS on a flip to +NAO and +AO in early December. The only difference is that the GEFS seems to get there a few days earlier. But both models eventually have a similar look. This has been has been a common theme since December 2011. Out of curiosity, was 2013 2014 a positive AO NAO year, with all our success based on an east based negative EPO? Not suggesting same for this year but could the EPO save us again to some extent? The EPS above looks a little better in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Maybe but these can change in an instance. Long range still looks good. They look a little worse this morning IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Out of curiosity, was 2013 2014 a positive AO NAO year, with all our success based on an east based negative EPO? Not suggesting same for this year but could the EPO save us again to some extent? The EPS above looks a little better in that regard. We had our moderate winter -EPO blocking intervals from 15-16 to 18-19. But nothing rivaling the extreme -EPO blocking in 13-14 and 14-15. That was the last time we had cold winters here. Seems like our strongest -EPO episodes since then have come in November. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 When was the last time we had a below zero reading at Central Park? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 16 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: When was the last time we had a below zero reading at Central Park? February 14, 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Maybe but these can change in an instance. Long range still looks good. Not really. Looks like a repeat of last year with the cold out west and storm track up to the lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not really. Looks like a repeat of last year with the cold out west and storm track up to the lakes... Not looking good for BAMWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not really. Looks like a repeat of last year with the cold out west and storm track up to the lakes... For December that’s pretty likely. Later in the winter we should get the goods. The storm track off the coast so far has been encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: For December that’s pretty likely. Later in the winter we should get the goods. The storm track off the coast so far has been encouraging. yeah I think Dec is shot.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Trends definitely are not looking good for the cold- and snow-lovers amongst us. The trauma from last year is still raw and, so far, this year bears an uncanny resemblance. Last year, I “closed the shades” after the first few days of December and never opened them back up. If the AO catapults to +4 or +5 in December, that’s going to be a pretty steep climb out of craptasm. At that point, we’d be banking on a SSWE which, as we saw last year, can fail to deliver the goods anyway (TBH, I feel like once the conversation focused on this, it’s often a pretty good indicator that we are toast). Hoping things turn around but, at this point, it’s hard to go against continuity of these repeating patterns..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 12z GFS shows a coastal developing after that powerful cyclone moves through. Heavy snow next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Just now, David-LI said: 12z GFS shows coastal developing after that powerful cyclone moves through. Heavy snow next Monday. mainly NYC north and east but interesting nonetheless...still 7 days away though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 31 minutes ago, David-LI said: 12z GFS shows a coastal developing after that powerful cyclone moves through. Heavy snow next Monday. 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: mainly NYC north and east but interesting nonetheless...still 7 days away though Please!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: mainly NYC north and east but interesting nonetheless...still 7 days away though I think this will be a significant storm with a good sign being the massive change in the teleconnections following it. I don't see why it wouldn't keep trending south if the 50/50 low is as strong as depicted. Last December we actually got screwed by a system that was too far south, will a south trend repeat itself? Afterwards we should enter an extended warm-up as AO & NAO soar. The -EPO could keep us on the colder side first 1/3 of December though. January could surprise us this year, it's sort of been the neutral month this decade with a mixed bag of events. February has been terrible post 14/15 and of course there's always March to the rescue with the massive late season blocking that screws our early spring weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 MJO projections for early December? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Please!!! The early Cobb Method snow outlook for this is 2.4" Rain and 5.0" Snow Looks too complicated to actually happen as indicated. I would bet on all Snow or more likely all Rain, some slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: Maybe but these can change in an instance. Long range still looks good. Even prior to today’s charts showing that spike with the apparent immediate drop back down HM has been saying for about a week on Twitter he felt the AO rise was going to be brief and then go right back to negative. Today’s ensembles start showing that idea but still too far out to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Looks stormy on the euro at least it’s active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Even prior to today’s charts showing that spike with the apparent immediate drop back down HM has been saying for about a week on Twitter he felt the AO rise was going to be brief and then go right back to negative. Today’s ensembles start showing that idea but still too far out to know Yes I read that also plus guidance looks like it wants to develop a negative EPO positive PNA in the post day 10. I read a few pages back were Don Sutherland said the PNA has more correlation to snowfall in the Northeast then the Nao or AO in december. Anyway guidance is all over the place as is to be expected as we head towards winter and the changing wavelength. One thing is clear is that the last month or so our weather has looked nothing like the euro weeklies or any monthly guidance had advertised. maybe we'll be in for a pleasant surprise this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 1 minute ago, binbisso said: Yes I read that also plus guidance looks like it wants to develop a negative EPO positive PNA in the post day 10. I read a few pages back were Don Sutherland said the PNA has more correlation to snowfall in the Northeast then the Nao or AO in december. Anyway guidance is all over the place as is to be expected as we head towards winter and the changing wavelength. One thing is clear is that the last month or so our weather has looked nothing like the euro weeklies or any monthly guidance had advertised. maybe we'll be in for a pleasant surprise this year The AO has a better correlation in December than the NAO but we did have one fairly -AO December recently (maybe 2012) where for several reasons we ended up torching despite the -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Euro has a lot of potential. It’s definitely trended colder today! Let’s keep this up guys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The AO has a better correlation in December than the NAO but we did have one fairly -AO December recently (maybe 2012) where for several reasons we ended up torching despite the -AO Dec 2012, 2001, 1996 ...there are more bad Decembers with a neg ao than good Decembers with a pos ao... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: yeah I think Dec is shot.... Nov 25th folks. Let’s pack it in til 1/1/20. December (drum roll please) is shot Yesterday, December looked...good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 I’ll take flurries at this point something to look at non the less after this brutal day of putting my dog down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Nov 25th folks. Let’s pack it in til 1/1/20. December (drum roll please) is shot Yesterday, December looked...good. I wouldn't throw away December just yet. Models are so fickle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 42 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Euro has a lot of potential. It’s definitely trended colder today! Let’s keep this up guys Cold air is still very marginal unfortunately. Euro may be active but the line between snow & rain is very thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: I’ll take flurries at this point something to look at non the less after this brutal day of putting my dog down I know how you feel, so sorry for the loss of your furry family member. Hope you get some of that snow to lift your spirits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Whoever is throwing the towel for December will never learn. Matter fact December 1st and 2nd May surprise us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Euro weeklies show a colder pattern continuing into mid to late December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Navgem looks really good for Sunday and Monday event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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