November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Funny thing is, if that early December snowstorm came up the coast last year we could have had an average snowfall winter. All in all a repeat of last year with a bit more luck and not bad at all.

Last winter was one virtual long range snowstorm after another.

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Last winter was one virtual long range snowstorm after another.

 

At least this winter is not teasing us like last. The weeklies continuously showed a great pattern that did not arrive till March.

[qg_omega]

13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Models showed good blocking and now its disappearing.  This always happens. Depressing.

Blocking is always a false flag, it will come in March and April

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At least this winter is not teasing us like last. The weeklies continuously showed a great pattern that did not arrive till March.

You have to assume that the models use AI to learn from past mistakes and they have what happened last year in their data banks and have corrected themselves to account for a pattern like last year's.

 

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Models showed good blocking and now its disappearing.  This always happens. Depressing.

Don't worry we'll get our March snowstorms like always. 

And Bluewave tried to warn everybody.

[doncat]

0.69" total and 1.68" for the month...Pressure bottomed out at 29.24".

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

There have been some winters where we had a cold and snowy start to December and the winter in general went that way- a la 03-04 and going back further in time 60-61.

But in general it's better when the last third of December is snowy rather than the first third.

 

Persistence of blocking is often key. The first half of November saw an EPO-/AO- combination and November has had 17/24 days with a negative EPO and 22/24 days with a negative AO. Since 1950, just over 70% of December cases with an AO average of +1.000 or above were warmer than normal in much or all of the East.

Finally, as seems to be almost a perennial occurrence each winter, Social Media was filled with chatter of an imminent significant stratospheric warming event. In fact, none appears likely through December 3 (EPS).

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Persistence of blocking is often key. The first half of November saw an EPO-/AO- combination and November has had 17/24 days with a negative EPO and 22/24 days with a negative AO. Since 1950, just over 70% of December cases with an AO average of +1.000 or above were warmer than normal in much or all of the East.

Finally, as seems to be almost a perennial occurrence each winter, Social Media was filled with chatter of an imminent significant stratospheric warming event. In fact, none appears likely through December 3 (EPS).

 

Yeah, record cold temperatures now in the stratosphere above Finland.

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

I realize this is banter and Mods put it there if you wish = I Drove up to Buffalo this morning and I cannot put into words how bad 17 to 86 was around Windsor just south of Binghamton it was snowing hard and the temp which had hovered between 32 and 34 for my entire ride hit 30 degrees and I saw cars littered all over the road not to mention my truck with 4 wheel drive, at one point I  slid downhill for about 2 or 3 blocks downhill ( very scary ). Roads were being plowed heading on the Northbound side but my road had not been salted or touched by a plow now back to our regular program.

[IrishRob17]

4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I realize this is banter and Mods put it there if you wish = I Drove up to Buffalo this morning and I cannot put into words how bad 17 to 86 was around Windsor just south of Binghamton it was snowing hard and the temp which had hovered between 32 and 34 for my entire ride hit 30 degrees and I saw cars littered all over the road not to mention my truck with 4 wheel drive, at one point I  slid downhill for about 2 or 3 blocks downhill ( very scary ). Roads were being plowed heading on the Northbound side but my road had not been salted or touched by a plow now back to our regular program.

That’s a notoriously bad location along there as there is a good bit of elevation. 

[qg_omega]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, record cold temperatures now in the stratosphere above Finland.

 

10mb GFS 384hr runs don’t help the cause

[wthrmn654]

Relentless windy days will be one thing that we keep having and likely will keep having.  Reminds me entirely like last fall...

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

10mb GFS 384hr runs don’t help the cause

Yeah, we have had much more success with major SSW’s later in the season.

 

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

4 feet for me! Woot  

1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I realize this is banter and Mods put it there if you wish = I Drove up to Buffalo this morning and I cannot put into words how bad 17 to 86 was around Windsor just south of Binghamton it was snowing hard and the temp which had hovered between 32 and 34 for my entire ride hit 30 degrees and I saw cars littered all over the road not to mention my truck with 4 wheel drive, at one point I  slid downhill for about 2 or 3 blocks downhill ( very scary ). Roads were being plowed heading on the Northbound side but my road had not been salted or touched by a plow now back to our regular program.

That area ranges from 1600-1800 feet and can be super sketchy even in the rain. How was that windswept stretch west of Binghamton out to Corning? 

[donsutherland1]

The storm that brought a soaking rain to much of the region, along with some snow is now departing. In its wake, milder weather will follow.

Precipitation amounts through 7 pm included: Allentown: 1.06"; Boston: 1.49"; Bridgeport: 0.46"; Islip: 0.74"; New York City: 0.93"; Newark: 0.74"; Philadelphia: 0.88"; Poughkeepsie: 1.28"; and, Providence: 1.43".

A few locations also saw some snow today. Snowfall amounts included: Albany: 0.2"; Binghamton: 2.6"; Harrisburg: Trace; and, Philadelphia: Trace.

In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is concluding its warmest autumn on record. Based on the latest guidance, Utqiagvik will likely have a September-November mean temperature ranging from 28.0°-28.5°. The current record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -10.88 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.731.

Daily MJO data was unavailable for November 23.

Even as the recent MJO progression through Phases 6, 7 and into 8 at high amplitude has typically preceded a mild December, there remains uncertainty concerning the longer-term evolution of the teleconnections. However, recent runs of the GEFS, ECMWF, and EPS all suggest that the AO could go positive during the first week in December. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO will go strongly positive. With no stratospheric warming events likely through at least December 3, there could be an elevated likelihood that the AO will go positive during the first week in December.

Based on the consistently-modeled idea of a negative to strongly negative EPO (-2.000 to -1.000) to begin December, at least the first 7-10 days of December will likely be colder than normal in much of the eastern third to eastern half of the CONUS and southern Canada. Warmer conditions could return should Atlantic blocking dissipate. Unseasonable warmth will likely prevail in much of Alaska, including areas that are experiencing their warmest autumn on record. The base case remains a somewhat warmer than normal December as a whole, though New England and the Great Lakes region could be cooler than normal.

With December likely to get off to a cold start, the potential for at least some snowfall in the Philadelphia to Boston area could exist. The first such opportunity could occur during the December 1-3 timeframe. The PNA is forecast to be somewhat negative.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 will likely be the coldest November since 1996 when the monthly mean temperature was 43.0°.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, record cold temperatures now in the stratosphere above Finland.

 

Yeah. I gotta admit, this winter looks like a rickety bridge because of this and the very warm IOD. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

4 feet for me! Woot  

That area ranges from 1600-1800 feet and can be super sketchy even in the rain. How was that windswept stretch west of Binghamton out to Corning? 

Gravity it was quite an amazing ride,,,I am NOT exaggerating when I say in all my years of driving in snow this was by far the scariest and I have had some white knucklers . The sides of the road on grassy areas leading up to Windsor were white in areas but for the most part they had nothing and Im not sure when it happened but I was watching the temp on my dashboard much of the ride but it suddenly hit 30 degrees and EVERYTHING got white and the road was real bad.I had checked the weather reports and models and  I expected 1 to 3 or 2 - 4 in Binghamton but there was nothing in Binghamton when I drove thru, hardly a flake and I don't think I even had my wipers on. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Gravity it was quite an amazing ride,,,I am NOT exaggerating when I say in all my years of driving in snow this was by far the scariest and I have had some white knucklers . The sides of the road on grassy areas leading up to Windsor were white in areas but for the most part they had nothing and Im not sure when it happened but I was watching the temp on my dashboard much of the ride but it suddenly hit 30 degrees and EVERYTHING got white and the road was real bad.I had checked the weather reports and models and  I expected 1 to 3 or 2 - 4 in Binghamton but there was nothing in Binghamton when I drove thru, hardly a flake and I don't think I even had my wipers on. 

My uncle has a house at 1900’ just south of Binghamton and said there was a freezing rain overnight Saturday. He ended up getting 4” of snow later in the day

 

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of November are averaging 47degs., or about 4degs. AN.

Month to date is  -5.1[43.6].        November should end near  -3.4[44.3].

41* here at 6am.     47* by 10am.     49* by Noon.         52* by 2pm.         54* by 3pm.

[the_other_guy]

17 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Funny thing is, if that early December snowstorm came up the coast last year we could have had an average snowfall winter. All in all a repeat of last year with a bit more luck and not bad at all.

We had a lot of cold periods last winter.

Much more than the snowier winter the year before

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

We had a lot of cold periods last winter.

Much more than the snowier winter the year before

I guess that's the beauty of living in a relatively low snowfall area (say as compared to Central and norther NE and NY), we can reach average snowfall with a couple lucky large storms (15/16, 05/06).

Last year was an almost perfect 80s throwback winter with frigid temps following warm up and rain events.

[NYCweatherNOW]

I would watch Sunday sundays system it could get messy especially for the burbs

[rgwp96]

15 hours ago, doncat said:

0.69" total and 1.68" for the month...Pressure bottomed out at 29.24".

1.75  by me in jersey . With temps no higher than 38 . It sucked 

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I guess that's the beauty of living in a relatively low snowfall area (say as compared to Central and norther NE and NY), we can reach average snowfall with a couple lucky large storms (15/16, 05/06).

Last year was an almost perfect 80s throwback winter with frigid temps following warm up and rain events.

It goes to show how Important storm tracks are for seasonal snowfall in NYC. Average winter temperatures over 3 months can mask other factors. The last 2 winters had similar average temperatures with much different snowfall outcomes. Especially across Suffolk which had a 60” season in 2018. But a colder than average winter this decade was a guarantee for a 50”+ season in NYC.

DJF average temperature 35.1

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Seasonal  Snow
2018-2019	36.3	20.5
2017-2018	36.2	40.9
2016-2017	39.3	30.2
2015-2016	41.0	30.8
2014-2015	31.4	50.3
2013-2014	32.9	57.4
2012-2013	36.8	26.1
2011-2012	40.5	7.4
2010-2011	32.8	61.9
2009-2010	33.8	51.4

[White Gorilla]

58 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I would watch Sunday sundays system it could get messy especially for the burbs

Such a long way in weather world.  

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

My uncle has a house at 1900’ just south of Binghamton and said there was a freezing rain overnight Saturday. He ended up getting 4” of snow later in the day

 

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

 

LBS Thanks. I am still shocked that a major highway was not salted or plowed in that area it was one scary ride , I've had white knucklers this was much worse

[CIK62]

CFSv2 500mb Anomalies  for the next 10 Weeks:  (around our neck of the woods)

B,  B,   N+,  N-,  B+,  B+, ,B++, N-(the classic Jan Thaw), N-,  B+        So no AN week for two months+  on the 500mb average heights.     Quite an output for a system that rarely ever shows anything BN in the long run.    

I hope I did not just dream this!

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I would watch Sunday sundays system it could get messy especially for the burbs

Too far out but yea the transfer came way south on both the Euro/GFS overnight. However the primary is a cutter in early December so the setup overall would say you'd have to be decently inland to see frozen precip 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models are beginning to show our annual NAO and AO rise that we have come to expect in December.

 

Maybe but these can change in an instance.   Long range still looks good.