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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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14 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

So all we need is to drop them 500 miles or so south and we're good to go. See what ya can do about that would ya please ;)

Haha. The 40N to 50N zone is acting like a gutter for those bowling balls.;)  Always seems like models have an easier time getting storm tracks correct  in that zone than the ones that track between 30N and 40N.

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Haha. The 40N to 50N zone is acting like a gutter for those bowling balls.;)  Always seems like models have an easier time getting storm tracks correct  in that zone than the ones that track between 30N and 40N.

It's been so long since we've had a good 4 Corners low that runs east along that 30N line then finds that juicy warm water as it goes off the coast.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1225 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

NJZ013-015-018>020-022-027-PAZ071-106-241830-
Northwestern Burlington-Camden-Ocean-Western
Monmouth-Atlantic-Mercer-Southeastern Burlington-Lower
Bucks-Philadelphia-
1225 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC... NORTHWESTERN OCEAN...CAMDEN...SOUTHERN
MERCER...BURLINGTON... SOUTHWESTERN MONMOUTH...SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS
AND NORTHEASTERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES...

At 1224 PM EST, an area of heavy snow was located over Willingboro,
or 12 miles northeast of Camden, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Philadelphia, Toms River, Trenton, Camden, Gloucester City, Lakewood,
Cherry Hill, Bensalem, Jackson, Evesham, Mount Laurel, Ewing,
Willingboro, Voorhees, Medford, Lindenwold, Hammonton, Lumberton,
Florence and Bellmawr.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 195 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 30.
 Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 27 and 64.
 Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 27 and 40.
 New Jersey Turnpike between exits 3 and 8.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.
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On 11/22/2019 at 8:34 PM, WarrenCtyWx said:

I would love to see a snowfall distribution like the March 1960 storm. Huge area of 10"+ from Central Pa to Eastern LI and up into SNE. Also a decent storm in the Mid Atlantic. We also had January - like temperatures during the first few weeks of the month, with highs generally around freezing or below. That was a pretty huge anomaly. 

What a crazy storm that was, especially when you see that the highest snowfall totals were on Nantucket (over 30") you'd think it was a coastal scraper, but it wasn't!

 

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On 11/23/2019 at 8:16 AM, bluewave said:

My very rough guess right now is that we are following along the track of November 2018. Very cold Novembers with a -EPO pulse December 1-10. We saw a colder start to December in NYC during 2018. But last year featured a moderating temperature trend after December 10th. December 11-30 also coincided with the milder MJO phases. So we’ll have to reevaluate what the pattern and model forecasts look like once we get past the first week of December. This will be to see if the pattern is following the recent past or it goes in another direction. While the CFS isn’t the worlds greatest model, it does show this pattern progression.

9FD54955-AC69-40B3-8BF8-C5CCE7BF616A.thumb.png.28150cbf17e03118be50547b49edf37c.png
E739C859-21D9-4EB0-8287-5EB420307D6E.thumb.png.035915d905f86212f6b376f6254919dd.png

 

 

The MJO also got stuck last winter in a very unfavorable phase and we dont want that happening again.

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On 11/23/2019 at 9:34 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The breakdown of Atlantic blocking is part of the reason the EPO- cold to start December (noted above) often gave way to warmer conditions within 10-12 days.

There have been some winters where we had a cold and snowy start to December and the winter in general went that way- a la 03-04 and going back further in time 60-61.

But in general it's better when the last third of December is snowy rather than the first third.

 

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On 11/23/2019 at 9:13 AM, SnoSki14 said:

The first 10 days of December do look very cold, some nice arctic shots on the GFS. 

I hope models show more blockiness appear though, a +NAO/AO is generally bad news though I'd rather still see a favorable Pacific. It's crazy how similar we are to last year thus far.

very 05-06 like

 

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15 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1225 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

NJZ013-015-018>020-022-027-PAZ071-106-241830-
Northwestern Burlington-Camden-Ocean-Western
Monmouth-Atlantic-Mercer-Southeastern Burlington-Lower
Bucks-Philadelphia-
1225 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC... NORTHWESTERN OCEAN...CAMDEN...SOUTHERN
MERCER...BURLINGTON... SOUTHWESTERN MONMOUTH...SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS
AND NORTHEASTERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES...

At 1224 PM EST, an area of heavy snow was located over Willingboro,
or 12 miles northeast of Camden, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Philadelphia, Toms River, Trenton, Camden, Gloucester City, Lakewood,
Cherry Hill, Bensalem, Jackson, Evesham, Mount Laurel, Ewing,
Willingboro, Voorhees, Medford, Lindenwold, Hammonton, Lumberton,
Florence and Bellmawr.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 195 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 30.
 Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 27 and 64.
 Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 27 and 40.
 New Jersey Turnpike between exits 3 and 8.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

it's crazy that there's heavy snow south of us

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6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

It really is uncanny how the entire meteorological fall will end up similar to last year, at least in terms of temperatures.

image.png.249f5fd4e3af200a52c340df86d7f8f3.png

But last year we got colder sooner, as I remember turning my heat on October 15, and this year I waited until November to do so.

And that 95 degree day on October 2 really stands out!  There was a period of all-time record setting October heat this year that was unprecedented in the annals of history that was widespread across the south all the way up to our region.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

But last year we got colder sooner, as I remember turning my heat on October 15, and this year I waited until November to do so.

And that 95 degree day on October 2 really stands out!  There was a period of all-time record setting October heat this year that was unprecedented in the annals of history that was widespread across the south all the way up to our region.

 

 

 

this board (and others) will be a wreck if we have a repeat of last year...although with that said-there's more caution this year....

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40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

this board (and others) will be a wreck if we have a repeat of last year...although with that said-there's more caution this year....

Funny thing is, if that early December snowstorm came up the coast last year we could have had an average snowfall winter. All in all a repeat of last year with a bit more luck and not bad at all.

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