MJO812 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: of course but climo is low. What does NYC average in December-3 inches? Winter usually starts after Christmad but it's not rare to see snow in early December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: of course but climo is low. What does NYC average in December-3 inches? December is more wintry than March; snowfall is about the same, but the days are much shorter and snow pack retention is much better. Full averages (over the entirety of the climate record) are between 5-6 inches each for both months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: December 2002 to 2005 was the last time NYC got 6+ inches of snow by the 10th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 10 Missing Count 2018-12-10 0.0 0 2017-12-10 4.6 0 2016-12-10 0.0 0 2015-12-10 0.0 0 2014-12-10 1.0 0 2013-12-10 2.1 0 2012-12-10 0.0 0 2011-12-10 0.0 0 2010-12-10 T 0 2009-12-10 T 0 2008-12-10 T 0 2007-12-10 1.7 0 2006-12-10 0.0 0 2005-12-10 9.3 0 2004-12-10 0.0 0 2003-12-10 14.0 0 2002-12-10 6.0 0 Yes but I remember the latter part of December in 2005 was much milder and that led to a mild January also. Here on Long Island we didn't get anywhere near 6 inches that December. It was a one big storm winter, which we were on the eastern edge of, in February. The early April snow burst was by far the most exciting event that season, it got NYC to 40" and dumped 2" here in the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: March traded places with December in NYC after 2010. From 2000 to 2010December was snowier. Now March is the snowier month. Yes but here on the western south shore (and also in urbanized areas like the city) it's hard to get accumulation in March. The truly big storms happen in December over March around here (although it hasn't happened since 2010, but where I live we haven't had a double digit March storm since 1993, and that changed to rain.) In either case, the shorter days and lower sun angle give December a much more wintry feel, when those storms do happen. This seems to be a cyclic pattern in terms of when December/March trade places for snowfall; in the 1950s we had this pattern too. Then we switched in the 1960s. It seems to go decade by decade, as it was snowier in December in the 40s, snowier in March in the 50s (March was the snowiest month overall that decade), and back to being snowier again in December during the 60s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: It seems like you dont think a favorable pattern is coming We've seen this same song and dance since the early 2010s, it's best to be cautious. Right now the pattern has been eerily similar to previous winters with a cold November and nearly identical forcing patterns. Repeating patterns have also been very common too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: We've seen this same song and dance since the early 2010s, it's best to be cautious. Right now the pattern has been eerily similar to previous winters with a cold November and nearly identical forcing patterns. Repeating patterns have also been very common too. I agree but the models arent backing away from a favorable pattern this time around. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think that was just due to the heavier snowfall rates focusing over Suffolk during a March like 2018 when they got 30”+. I think we have this discussion every year lol. In March, you need those extreme snowfall rates to get heavy accumulations. It's harder for us or the city to get it because storms generally focus their heaviest rates either west (inland) or further east (eastern Long Island.) To get those kind of rates here in March is like a thread the needle kind of scenario. I'm not sure a January 1996 or February 1983 or January 2016 kind of storm is possible in March anymore with our heavy urbanization, where we all do extremely well (apologies to the northern crew who got cut off.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, NYC has been stuck In the middle during March. The most extreme March snowfall rates in 2017 were west and east in 2018. Hugger vs slightly east of benchmark tracks will do it. Remember March (1) 2009, Chris? Thats the closest we came to an area-wide double digit snowfall in March since 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 A moderate to significant rainfall will affect the big cities of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas late tomorrow into Sunday. Cities such as New York, Newark, Providence, and Boston will likely pick up 0.50"-1.50" precipitation with some locally higher amounts near 2.00". In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is now concluding its warmest autumn on record. Based on the latest guidance, Utqiagvik will likely have a September-November mean temperature ranging from 27.8°-28.3°. The current record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -2.42 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.258. Daily MJO data for November 21 was unavailable. Even as the recent MJO progression through Phases 6, 7 and into 8 at high amplitude has typically preceded a mild December, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning the longer-term evolution of the teleconnections. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 99% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 will likely be the coldest November since 1996 when the monthly mean temperature was 43.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 The EPO is forecast to fall to between -2.000 and -1.000 as November concludes. Such a development has typically seen colder than normal temperatures move into the East. Below are the composite temperature anomalies for all EPO cases from -2.000 to -1.000 (December 1-7, 1981-2018)+ 3 days: Should Atlantic blocking break down and/or the EPO- regime collapse, there would be an increased probability that the cold could be replaced by a warmer regime. From the above composite, the typical cold period lasted 10-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I think we have this discussion every year lol. In March, you need those extreme snowfall rates to get heavy accumulations. It's harder for us or the city to get it because storms generally focus their heaviest rates either west (inland) or further east (eastern Long Island.) To get those kind of rates here in March is like a thread the needle kind of scenario. I'm not sure a January 1996 or February 1983 or January 2016 kind of storm is possible in March anymore with our heavy urbanization, where we all do extremely well (apologies to the northern crew who got cut off.) I would love to see a snowfall distribution like the March 1960 storm. Huge area of 10"+ from Central Pa to Eastern LI and up into SNE. Also a decent storm in the Mid Atlantic. We also had January - like temperatures during the first few weeks of the month, with highs generally around freezing or below. That was a pretty huge anomaly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just caught a shooting star in Westchester, it’s a shame it was cloudy last night. Second one I’ve seen in two weeks, doesn’t sound like much but I’ve only seen maybe 4 or 5 in my entire life. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: I would love to see a snowfall distribution like the March 1960 storm. Huge area of 10"+ from Central Pa to Eastern LI and up into SNE. Also a decent storm in the Mid Atlantic. We also had January - like temperatures during the first few weeks of the month, with highs generally around freezing or below. That was a pretty huge anomaly. the greatest one year period of weather started with the March 1960 near blizzard...huge drifts with that storm...it was forecast to change to rain..In September we got hurricane Donna...December 11-12th 1960 was another blizzard with huge drifts...January 19-20th was a colder blizzard with huge drifts...then there was the February 3-4th storm that was the biggest and even had a change to sleet which kept accumulations down...December 59 to Feb. 61 produced five storms a foot or more in Central Park...2009-10 and 2010-11 is comparable but did not have the hurricane until late 2011 and 2012... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Anyone familiar with Bamwx? These guys are usually conservative with their forecasts. They have uped the ante and went much below normal for the northeast for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: I agree but the models arent backing away from a favorable pattern this time around. Still time for them to change but keep up the good thoughts 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: March traded places with December in NYC after 2010. From 2000 to 2010, December was snowier. Now March is the snowier month. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Mar Mean 2.6 11.3 9.5 7.3 2018-2019 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 2017-2018 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 2016-2017 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 2015-2016 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 2014-2015 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 2013-2014 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 2012-2013 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 2011-2012 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Mar Mean 7.8 6.5 13.3 3.5 2009-2010 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 2008-2009 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 2007-2008 2.9 T 9.0 T 2006-2007 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 2005-2006 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 2004-2005 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 2003-2004 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 2002-2003 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 2001-2002 T 3.5 T T 2000-2001 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 Hi bluewave. I haven't posted much on here in a while. I am from northeast Arkansas. I have a few questions. The main thing hurting us in the near future is the mjo heading or in the unfavorable phases. Would that be correct or not? Lastly, do you expect a colder pattern with more staying power to start somewhere in December or will it be later than that? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 The last 8 days of November are averaging 45.5degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is -5.2[43.8]. November should end near -3.5[44.2]. 36* here at 6am. 41* by 11am. 45* by 2pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 10 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Hi bluewave. I haven't posted much on here in a while. I am from northeast Arkansas. I have a few questions. The main thing hurting us in the near future is the mjo heading or in the unfavorable phases. Would that be correct or not? Lastly, do you expect a colder pattern with more staying power to start somewhere in December or will it be later than that? Thanks in advance. My very rough guess right now is that we are following along the track of November 2018. Very cold Novembers with a -EPO pulse December 1-10. We saw a colder start to December in NYC during 2018. But last year featured a moderating temperature trend after December 10th. December 11-30 also coincided with the milder MJO phases. So we’ll have to reevaluate what the pattern and model forecasts look like once we get past the first week of December. This will be to see if the pattern is following the recent past or it goes in another direction. While the CFS isn’t the worlds greatest model, it does show this pattern progression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 todays ao/nao forecast is very positive for a while...I hate seeing that because odds are against a cold December without a neg ao or nao or both... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: While the CFS isn’t the worlds greatest model, it does show this pattern progression. What does BAMMWX refer to when they mention the CFSv-2 weeklies 2 meter temp anomaly and it is a cold run to December 17 th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 With tomorrow's rapidly intensifying low trending NW and nearly over the city now, we're likely to see some heavy rain during the morning hours. This will be yet another system with a 500mb jet max putting us in the sweet spot for lift. Lapse rates are nothing to sneeze at and may allow for a thunderstorm or two in the area, as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 The first 10 days of December do look very cold, some nice arctic shots on the GFS. I hope models show more blockiness appear though, a +NAO/AO is generally bad news though I'd rather still see a favorable Pacific. It's crazy how similar we are to last year thus far. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 12 minutes ago, frd said: What does BAMMWX refer to when they mention the CFSv-2 weeklies 2 meter temp anomaly and it is a cold run to December 17 th? I wouldn’t rely too heavily on the CFS details. It usually flips around from run to run and day to day. I only pointed it out since matches the general EPO progression from last December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 14 minutes ago, uncle W said: todays ao/nao forecast is very positive for a while...I hate seeing that because odds are against a cold December without a neg ao or nao or both... Epo still looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: My very rough guess right now is that we are following along the track of November 2018. Very cold Novembers with a -EPO pulse December 1-10. We saw a colder start to December in NYC during 2018. But last year featured a moderating temperature trend after December 10th. December 11-30 also coincided with the milder MJO phases. So we’ll have to reevaluate what the pattern and model forecasts look like once we get past the first week of December. This will be to see if the pattern is following the recent past or it goes in another direction. While the CFS isn’t the worlds greatest model, it does show this pattern progression. Agreed, I don’t understand weather BAMWX is seeing that most aren’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I wouldn’t rely too heavily on the CFS details. It usually flips around from run to run and day to day. I only pointed it out since it matches the progression of EPO to what happened last year. Yes, that is true. But, it is uncanny how similar to last December we look to evolve, but there are other players around that could throw a monkey wrench in the way December eventually plays out. I know some are using the MJO progression, and the standing wave, as way to maintain the warmer phases, Some are calling for the HL to become less favorable as well. Still seeing the pesky High North of Hawaii. If it were not for the - EPO we would be in trouble even faster . At least the -NAO helps us for a bit before it weakens. So hard for Decembers to work out in our favor if you love snow and cold, been that way for a long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The first 10 days of December do look very cold, some nice arctic shots on the GFS. I hope models show more blockiness appear though, a +NAO/AO is generally bad news though I'd rather still see a favorable Pacific. It's crazy how similar we are to last year thus far. The breakdown of Atlantic blocking is part of the reason the EPO- cold to start December (noted above) often gave way to warmer conditions within 10-12 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Agreed, I don’t understand weather BAMWX is seeing that most aren’t Their lead December analog is 1995. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Their lead December analog is 1995. that's not happening with an ao as high as forecast... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The breakdown of Atlantic blocking is part of the reason the EPO- cold to start December (noted above) often gave way to warmer conditions within 10-12 days. Hey Don, I see the progression similarities to last year, however the MJO forecasts last year showed the progression to the warm phases while this year has it looping back to the cold phases. Couldn't this year be different? Are all the background enso and stratospheric the same as last year? I am trying to learn why Bluewave and all believe we are going to follow last year to a t? Many thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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