November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[jm1220]

46 minutes ago, binbisso said:

If you Loop the EPS starting from hour 72 from last night's run and go back to the 240 hour forecast it missed the n a o block completely still have 3 days to verify but that's a positive sign going forward that models maybe under estimating the block in the high latitudes this year

The Nina like Pacific pattern will try to keep building the SE Ridge, so the warmth may be muted but the block will have to be strong to stop it from influencing things too much. It would be a lot better if the Pacific was also helping. 

[purduewx80]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The fly in the ointment this year has been the unusually strong low over the SW US. So the SE ridge corrects stronger the closer we get to the forecast period.

https://ktar.com/story/2850504/hail-falls-across-the-phoenix-area-but-storms-are-heading-out-of-town/

I'm not convinced the longitude of troughs/ridges has been sorted out yet. Past 4 00Z EPS runs below:

[EastonSN+]

Looks like we loose NAO, however PNA looks to go positive at same time. That would help with SE ridge.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

I'm not convinced the longitude of troughs/ridges has been sorted out yet. Past 4 00Z EPS runs below:

 

While the amplitude has increased in recent runs, the ridge axis remains stuck north of Hawaii and over the SE US.

[frd]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the amplitude has increased in recent runs, the ridge axis remains stuck north of Hawaii and over the SE US.

Do you think that changes as we progress further into time, as into  late December?

Aren't things still progressing in the Pac and in the NH.,  in terms of wavelengths and the real winter pattern developing. 

Some of the feedback supporting that ridge  axis there may change moving forward. 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like we loose NAO, however PNA looks to go positive at same time. That would help with SE ridge.

Check out the epo. That would be huge.

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Check out the epo. That would be huge.

That combined with the positive PNA would help push the cold a bit further east. I get that a negative EPO alone could be cutter city 80s style. So if we loose the NAO the PNA is critical.

[canderson]

Guys, can anyone help with timing for the rain Saturday into Sunday am? IE start/end? Have to run to a lot of events in the city all weekend and trying to avoid carrying an umbrella or a raincoat (not sure if I can pull it off, but I might be able to arrange things depending on how late it starts Saturday). 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Guys, can anyone help with timing for the rain Saturday into Sunday am? IE start/end? Have to run to a lot of events in the city all weekend and trying to avoid carrying an umbrella or a raincoat (not sure if I can pull it off, but I might be able to arrange things depending on how late it starts Saturday). 

looks like starts overnight Saturday-both NAMS have it going all day Sunday, but there's a sharp cutoff to the NW so any SE correction would take the rain out a bit earlier.   Amounts are forecast to be b/w an inch and possibly up to 2 inches in spots

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

I'm not convinced the longitude of troughs/ridges has been sorted out yet. Past 4 00Z EPS runs below:

the 50/50 low has been under-modeled since may

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the same forcing pattern that gives us the cold Novembers is also responsible for the milder Decembers. Notice how the forcing west of the dateline is close to a MJO 6 phase composite this time of year. The VP anomaly charts have shown this cold pattern this month. So just looking at the MJO RMM charts are not telling the whole story. This type of forcing pattern allows for more of a SE ridge in December. So watch to see if we continue with this WP forcing as we move into December.

Do milder Decembers lead to milder/less snowy winters overall?  That would be a reason my cold November less snowy winter correlation exists.

 

[purduewx80]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the 50/50 low has been under-modeled since may

yep....puts us in NW'ly flow and should help sustain some of the colder wx that comes in on thanksgiving into at least the first few days of december. imo.

[canderson]

46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

looks like starts overnight Saturday-both NAMS have it going all day Sunday, but there's a sharp cutoff to the NW so any SE correction would take the rain out a bit earlier.   Amounts are forecast to be b/w an inch and possibly up to 2 inches in spots

Thanks! Models blocked here at work so couldn't tell timing. Our wanderings around the east village Sunday early afternoon should be fun. 

[bluewave]

This could be the windiest period around Thanksgiving in years.

 

 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This could be the windiest period around Thanksgiving in years.

 

 

May be too windy for balloons to fly

[LibertyBell]

How cold are we looking at for Thursday and for the entire weekend?  40s?

 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

May be too windy for balloons to fly

It’s quite possible.

[purduewx80]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

How cold are we looking at for Thursday and for the entire weekend?  40s?

Wednesday looks to be up in the 60s, enjoy it because Thu-Sat may struggle to reach 40 (with wind).

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

Wednesday looks to be up in the 60s, enjoy it because Thu-Sat may struggle to reach 40 (with wind).

Looks like a cold four day weekend then but not as cold as when we had our Arctic outbreaks earlier in the month?

I saw there's a second storm coming behind the pre-Thanksgiving one (the one that is going to hit California hard), does that look to be mainly rain too (and is that on Sunday)?

 

[purduewx80]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I saw there's a second storm coming behind the pre-Thanksgiving one (the one that is going to hit California hard), does that look to be mainly rain too (and is that on Sunday)?

waaaay too early to say given the model volatility. if the 50/50 holds in place, it could be one of those systems that works zonally across the country even as the gulf ridge perks up. sunday is a fair estimate on the timing but that could easily change, too.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, purduewx80 said:

waaaay too early to say given the model volatility. if the 50/50 holds in place, it could be one of those systems that works zonally across the country even as the gulf ridge perks up. sunday is a fair estimate on the timing but that could easily change, too.

This could be one of the more traveler-unfriendly Thanksgiving weekends then.  I was planning on coming back on Monday anyway to avoid the  holiday traffic.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

waaaay too early to say given the model volatility. if the 50/50 holds in place, it could be one of those systems that works zonally across the country even as the gulf ridge perks up. sunday is a fair estimate on the timing but that could easily change, too.

Haven't seen one of those "bowling ball" systems in awhile!

A little early to get a snowstorm from one of those around here though.

 

[SnoSki14]

Looks like the -NAO will give way to a -EPO type of pattern with CONUS wide cold possible. 

Atlantic blocking is great but I'd much rather see a more favorable Pacific.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had a brief -EPO pattern early last December before it faded as the month went on.

2018 12 01  -86.59
2018 12 02 -164.62
2018 12 03 -209.99
2018 12 04 -191.96
2018 12 05 -191.41
2018 12 06 -135.72
2018 12 07  -24.18
2018 12 08    8.96
2018 12 09   67.03
2018 12 10  152.51
2018 12 11  225.54
2018 12 12  257.56
2018 12 13  186.34
2018 12 14  140.09
2018 12 15  146.02
2018 12 16  128.68
2018 12 17  220.47
2018 12 18  244.06
2018 12 19  123.68
2018 12 20   77.63
2018 12 21  111.11
2018 12 22   87.63
2018 12 23  106.69
2018 12 24   85.74
2018 12 25   47.92
2018 12 26   80.98
2018 12 27   52.43
2018 12 28   26.18
2018 12 29   57.61
2018 12 30    5.73
2018 12 31  -32.91

It seems like you dont think a favorable pattern is coming 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

May be too windy for balloons to fly

I was just going to post this,,,hope things change for the kids

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It seems like you dont think a favorable pattern is coming 

even if we get a favorable pattern it's still on the early side for snow/ice....

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

even if we get a favorable pattern it's still on the early side for snow/ice....

Def but it can snow in December.  Different from November. 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models forecasts beyond a week have been really poor recently. So the favorable pattern would have to show up within a week to be believable. If we do get a favorable pattern in early December, then the challenge becomes sustaining it long enough to have an impact on the general December pattern. But we have seen these cooler December starts in recent years before modifying as the month went on. The forecast model runs from the later portion of November haven’t been of much help.

Dec 2005 (one of the analogs) comes to mind.

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Def but it can snow in December.  Different from November. 

of course but climo is low.  What does NYC average in December-3 inches?

[doncat]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

of course but climo is low.  What does NYC average in December-3 inches?

My 40 year average is 4.7" down this way.