frd Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 25 minutes ago, EasternLI said: +PMM take over at some point? If it does, this place will be buzzing. There was a post 3 months ago that indicated a very cold and stormy December based on the record positive PMM at that time. However. maybe the record + IOD is interfering some how to achieve that outcome next month, or simply the correlation may work, but occur later in December. Some some research indicated increased odds of cold an enhanced sub tropical jet during December based on the +PMM association along with increased odds of phasing along the East Coast. Some of those things are already happening if you look close enough. There are indications the STJ is picking up steam and there have been ample coastal storms this Fall season as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 44 minutes ago, frd said: There was a post 3 months ago that indicated a very cold and stormy December based on the record positive PMM at that time. However. maybe the record + IOD is interfering some how to achieve that outcome next month, or simply the correlation may work, but occur later in December. Some some research indicated increased odds of cold an enhanced sub tropical jet during December based on the +PMM association along with increased odds of phasing along the East Coast. Some of those things are already happening if you look close enough. There are indications the STJ is picking up steam and there have been ample coastal storms this Fall season as well. I will proceed with cautious optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Some signs the EPO dips to start December with a weak -NAO, would be nice if the GEFS were correct for a change. Pattern doesn't look torchy but it's gotta be better than this to produce. Oh well, the next couple weeks should be mostly pleasant with maybe near 60 temps this Friday and then near Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Some signs the EPO dips to start December with a weak -NAO, would be nice if the GEFS were correct for a change. Pattern doesn't look torchy but it's gotta be better than this to produce. Oh well, the next couple weeks should be mostly pleasant with maybe near 60 temps this Friday and then near Thanksgiving. I will take that over waking up to IIRC, 14 degrees last Thanksgiving. I don't even think we got out of the 20s that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Some signs the EPO dips to start December with a weak -NAO, would be nice if the GEFS were correct for a change. Pattern doesn't look torchy but it's gotta be better than this to produce. Oh well, the next couple weeks should be mostly pleasant with maybe near 60 temps this Friday and then near Thanksgiving. All the models and ensembles show the blocking pattern as we head towards the end of this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 I posted about the upcoming pattern and 2 people laughed. Are people just trolling or actually looking at the MJO, Indicies and the models ? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I posted about the upcoming pattern and 2 people laughed. Are people just trolling or actually looking at the MJO, Indicies and the models ? I think the snarky remarks are the result of what happened last year with the ensembles calling for a cold/snowy pattern only to go up in smoke as it drew closer. Word of advice Anthony, when it comes to LR forecasts always proceed with caution. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I think the snarky remarks are the result of what happened last year with the ensembles calling for a cold/snowy pattern only to go up in smoke as it drew closer. Word of advice Anthony, when it comes to LR forecasts always proceed with caution. Definitely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 That is an impressive negative nao on today's Euro and it's not in Fantasyland starting on day 4 and continuing through the end of the Run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 And that's a sweet look on the euro days 8 through 10 with plenty of cold air in Canada and the northern USA including the Northeast warmth to the South and a active subtropical jet. If that's the look we get I think we will snow very late this month or early December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Nice look to start December, maybe 2010-2011 esque with the -PNA and -NAO. EPS/GEFS agree. Not particularly cold but could be good enough especially as we head deeper towards winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: I posted about the upcoming pattern and 2 people laughed. Are people just trolling or actually looking at the MJO, Indicies and the models ? The one were you said ''On to December''? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nice look to start December, maybe 2010-2011 esque with the -PNA and -NAO. EPS/GEFS agree. Not particularly cold but could be good enough especially as we head deeper towards winter. Yes I agree. Also the storm system this weekend as currently modeled would be snow for a good portion of our area even two weeks from now. good to have storms going underneath us. don't forget by the end of this month the normal 0C 850s are now in central New Jersey so we do not need Artic Air to snow here just need a system to get under us and the Nao should help 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Dan76 said: The one were you said ''On to December''? Yep. I am talking about December. Keep up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, binbisso said: Yes I agree. Also the storm system this weekend as currently modeled would be snow for a good portion of our area even two weeks from now. good to have storms going underneath us. don't forget by the end of this month the normal 0C 850s are now in central New Jersey so we do not need Artic Air to snow here just need a system to get under us and the Nao should help It's a nice sign that we keep seeing coastals even though they arent snow. The pattern depicted by all the models including the ensembles show promise as we head into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Also nice change on the EPS at day 8 going forward in regards to the EPO Ridge. Doesn't look as good as the GEFS but a big difference from yesterday's run. Also noticing some lower Heights just west of Hawaii interesting to see how this all plays out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Through November 20, parts of the Northeast have seen above normal snowfall. Amounts include: Albany: 2.1" (0.6" above normal); Bangor: 2.7" (1.9" above normal); Binghamton: 4.0" (0.2" above normal); Buffalo: 12.6" (7.7" above normal); Burlington: 11.0" (8.3" above normal); and, Caribou: 14.7" (7.5" above normal). For at least the next 7-10 days, accumulating snow in such cities as Newark, New York, and Philadelphia remains a low probability scenario. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -19.79 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.096. On November 19, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.440 (RMM). The November 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.772. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. Since 1974, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.000 to 2.000 during the November 10-25 period on three or more days in eight years, as was the case this year. In 6/8 (75%) cases, the AO wound up averaging > 0 during December; in 5/8 (63%) it averaged +0.500 or above; and, in 4/8 (50%), it averaged +1.000 or above. In 2/8 (25%) cases, it averaged -2.000 or below (2005 and 2010). In 5/8 (63%) cases, December was warmer than normal in the New York City area. At present, there is considerable uncertainty concerning the Arctic Oscillation in the extended guidance. Overall, the preponderance of data continues to imply a milder than normal December in the East. Should ENSO Region 3.4 continue to warm, the Indian Ocean Dipole persist, and the Arctic Oscillation trend toward neutral and later positive, the probability of such an outcome would increase. Should blocking persist, the amount of warming could be reduced. At present, there remains considerable uncertainty about the AO in the extended range. The EPS forecasts the AO's going weakly positive in early December. The GEFS suggests that blocking will persist into at least the first week of December. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 95% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 New supercomputer could be a forecasting game-changer http://www.news12.com/story/41336645/new-supercomputer-could-be-a-forecasting-gamechanger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 47.5degs., or about 4degs. AN Month to date is -5.7[43.6]. Should be near -3.1[44.7] by the 29th. 41* here at 6am. 47* by 11am. 49* at Noon. 51* at 1pm. 53* by 2:30pm. The action on the Wed. before TGD seems to have faded. Wind on Thursday could have been a problem for the parade balloons. GFS has week frontal passage only. CMC no action. EURO somewhat like the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Top 3 coldest first 20 days of November at several of our stations before the temperature moderation. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 20 Missing Count 1 1933-11-20 38.7 0 2 1976-11-20 40.5 0 3 2019-11-20 42.4 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 20 Missing Count 1 1976-11-20 41.0 0 2 1967-11-20 41.2 0 3 2019-11-20 41.4 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORI AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 20 Missing Count 1 1962-11-20 41.2 0 2 2019-11-20 42.0 0 3 1967-11-20 42.3 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 1962 was a cold November that ended on a mild note...December 1962 came in like a lamb with a warm 68 degrees...the month ended up way below normal...there was a four degree morning on the 31st... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 A Reminder: That visible tonight from about 11:30pm to 12:15am (if sky is clear, which seems dubious according to the models) is a quick-but supposedly spectacular meteor shower. It should emanate from near Orion in the lower se. sky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 About as boring a weather day as you can get. Great for finishing fall cleanups. Looks like the weak storm this weekend will produce some snow for the ski resorts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 All the models show a major blocking pattern as we start December. Please for the love of god come true. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: About as boring a weather day as you can get. Great for finishing fall cleanups. Looks like the weak storm this weekend will produce some snow for the ski resorts Beautiful day, so perfect for this time of year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: All the models show a major blocking pattern as we start December. Please for the love of god come true. If by this time next week models still show that, I will pay attention. Until then, I won't bite, even with high model agreement this far out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: If by this time next week models still show that, I will pay attention. Until then, I won't bite, even with high model agreement this far out. the model agreement on the pattern is intriguing but I'll wait-it's still in the longer term.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Hunter yesterday. For the middle of November that’s about as good as it gets in the Catskills Natural snow from around the 2000 Ft level 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Hunter yesterday. For the middle of November that’s about as good as it gets in the Catskills Natural snow from around the 2000 Ft level looks like January! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Hunter yesterday. For the middle of November that’s about as good as it gets in the Catskills Natural snow from around the 2000 Ft level That's a Bob Ross painting right there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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