November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It'll prevent us from torching (well almost) but the Pacific is a lot more important and the -PNA /+EPO is of no help. 

That’s why a real -NAO is so important. A -AO with a +EPO and ridge north of Hawaii just won’t cut it. For example, this is what happened last December. We had a mild +EPO/-AO/+NAO pattern. The unfavorable Pacific overpowered the weaker Atlantic blocking for us.

 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s why a real -NAO is so important. A -AO with a +EPO and ridge north of Hawaii just won’t cut it. For example, this is what happened last December. We had a mild +EPO/-AO/+NAO pattern. The unfavorable Pacific overpowered the weaker Atlantic blocking for us.

 

Chris, is that why when you compare our climate to the far east (Korean peninsula, Hokkaido, Japan, etc.) they get far more snow than we do at the same latitude- because Eurasia is so large that it negates the effects of the Atlantic to the west.  While North America is a small continent by comparison and not large enough to block out the effects of the Pacific Ocean to its west?

 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, is that why when you compare our climate to the far east (Korean peninsula, Hokkaido, Japan, etc.) they get far more snow than we do at the same latitude- because Eurasia is so large that it negates the effects of the Atlantic to the west.  While North America is a small continent by comparison and not large enough to block out the effects of the Pacific Ocean to its west?

 

The Pacific Ocean has a tremendous impact on our weather. The only way to counter an unfavorable Pacific pattern for us is an extreme North Atlantic blocking event. But those have been happening later in the season for us. 

[purduewx80]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, is that why when you compare our climate to the far east (Korean peninsula, Hokkaido, Japan, etc.) they get far more snow than we do at the same latitude- because Eurasia is so large that it negates the effects of the Atlantic to the west.  While North America is a small continent by comparison and not large enough to block out the effects of the Pacific Ocean to its west?

 

The Koreas and Hokkaido have open water between them and a cold continent, so their snowfall often comes from sea/ocean-effect.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, purduewx80 said:

The Koreas and Hokkaido have open water between them and a cold continent, so their snowfall often comes from sea/ocean-effect.

So that's why we see those pictures of 10+ feet of snowfall coming from places like Sapporo!

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Pacific Ocean has a tremendous impact on our weather. The only way to counter an unfavorable Pacific pattern for us is an extreme North Atlantic blocking event. But those have been happening later in the season for us. 

Yes, and an unfavorable Pacific seems to happen more frequently than a favorable one.

Later in the season, we also have shortening wavelengths, so it's easier to have an omega block pattern (trough-west, ridge-center, trough-east)

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, and an unfavorable Pacific seems to happen more frequently than a favorable one.

Later in the season, we also have shortening wavelengths, so it's easier to have an omega block pattern (trough-west, ridge-center, trough-east)

The recent SSW’s have also been occurring later in the season. It’s rare to get one early.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The recent SSW’s have also been occurring later in the season. It’s rare to get one early.

Is this why May has become the month in which -NAO most frequently occur?

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is this why May has become the month in which -NAO most frequently occur?

 

I think it’s a piece of the puzzle. Most of our recent strong Atlantic blocking events have been in JFMAM. The Pacific has been our main driver especially before January in recent years. You can see it now with the EPO reversal. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think it’s a piece of the puzzle. Most of our recent strong Atlantic blocking events have been in JFMAM. The Pacific has been our main driver especially before January in recent years. You can see it now with the EPO reversal. 

Yes, I think this is the big change you mentioned in the Pacific since 2010-11.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The recent SSW’s have also been occurring later in the season. It’s rare to get one early.

Judah Cohen writes today about a possible SSW in mid December this year-time will tell....

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Judah Cohen writes today about a possible SSW in mid December this year-time will tell....

That would be a very rare occurrence. Only a tiny fraction of major SSW’s have occurred before January.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

[Brian5671]

Just now, bluewave said:

That would be a very rare occurrence. Only a small fraction of major SSW’s have occurred before January.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

I agree-that's why I remain skeptical

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I agree-that's why I remain skeptical

The only recent skill the met community has had with forecasting major SSW’s in advance were the later season ones the last few years. 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only recent skill the met community has had with forecasting major SSW’s in advance were the later season ones the last few years. 

History has taught us not to bank on these occurring to save a snowfall season.

 

[doncat]

Managed 0.60" rain for yesterday thru this am.

[bluewave]

Strong winds could be an issue around the Thanksgiving parade if the cutter comes out as intense as the Euro and GFS. We will have to see how models handle the details of this SE Ridge amplification in later runs.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Strong winds could be an issue around the Thanksgiving parade if the cutter comes out as intense as the Euro and GFS. We will have to see how models handle the details of this SE Ridge amplification in later runs.

I'm planning a trip to Northeastern PA- does early Thanksgiving morning sound like a bad day to travel?  I wanted to go when the roads weren't busy but the weather also needs to be good.  What about really early Wednesday morning (like around 9 AM.)

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm planning a trip to Northeastern PA- does early Thanksgiving morning sound like a bad day to travel?  I wanted to go when the roads weren't busy but the weather also needs to be good.  What about really early Wednesday morning (like around 9 AM.)

too early to say-something to watch as we move up in time, we're still 9 days out.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm planning a trip to Northeastern PA- does early Thanksgiving morning sound like a bad day to travel?  I wanted to go when the roads weren't busy but the weather also needs to be good.  What about really early Wednesday morning (like around 9 AM.)

No way to know details like that so far out. But the models continue to show more of a SE Ridge amplification now than several days ago. So we are returning to the default firehose Pacific Jet pattern of the last several years.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

too early to say-something to watch as we move up in time, we're still 9 days out.

From what I see in the maps, it looks like the Euro moves the storm in and out more quickly, where it would rain on Wednesday and clear out in time for Thanksgiving.  The GFS has a slower storm that drops most of the rain on Thanksgiving.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

No way to know details like that so far out. But the models continue to show more of a SE Ridge amplification now than several days ago. So we are returning to the default Pacific firehose Jet pattern of the last several years.

Well if the Euro is right, it looks like the rain would end before Thanksgiving morning?

Also, you're right, looks like our arctic November is over!

No more of those frigid shots at least for the next few weeks.

 

 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No way to know details like that so far out. But the models continue to show more of a SE Ridge amplification now than several days ago. So we are returning to the default firehose Pacific Jet pattern of the last several years.

Onto December 

[White Gorilla]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

must have been a highly amplified pattern!

winter 1979-80 was pretty boring though

I was in first grade up near Worcester, MA and didn't follow the weather, but yeah, I don't remember any big snows.  Winter of 80-81 was better.  I remember 8 inches of snow Nov 1980.  Winter of of 81-82 was rocking as far as snow. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I was in first grade up near Worcester, MA and didn't follow the weather, but yeah, I don't remember any big snows.  Winter of 80-81 was better.  I remember 8 inches of snow Nov 1980.  Winter of of 81-82 was rocking as far as snow. 

Christmas 1980 was the coldest Christmas ever and had snow with below zero temps!

Winter 1981-82 had the big snow in January and the unprecedented April blizzard.

Then we had the Feb 1983 HECS the following winter, and that was all she wrote for the 80s  (more or less.)  It was still very cold in the following winters (1983-84 and 1984-85 in particular, that Jan 1985 outbreak was the coldest I can remember) but no more big snowstorms.

 

 

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Christmas 1980 was the coldest Christmas ever and had snow with below zero temps!

Winter 1981-82 had the big snow in January and the unprecedented April blizzard.

Then we had the Feb 1983 HECS the following winter, and that was all she wrote for the 80s  (more or less.)  It was still very cold in the following winters (1983-84 and 1984-85 in particular, that Jan 1985 outbreak was the coldest I can remember) but no more big snowstorms.

 

 

Yup, remember lots of snow in Jan 82 and the April 82 blizzard.  Where I lived in Central MA, we also had a major snowstorm Dec 6, 1981, 18 inches.  

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Onto December 

you know it's going to be warm when you fold up shop....

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Yup, remember lots of snow in Jan 82 and the April 82 blizzard.  Where I lived in Central MA, we also had a major snowstorm Dec 6, 1981, 18 inches.  

I suspect a lot of our snow droughts down here were great winters up there.  I dont know how to find this info but I was wondering where you have to be to get a minimum of 40 inches of snow every year.

*actually that's too high, because I dont want to have excessive snow either.  I'd settle for a minimum of 20 inches of snow a year (no complete dud winters like 2001-02, 2011-12, etc., or even 2006-07, 2007-08).

 

[doncat]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

you know it's going to be warm when you fold up shop....

My shop is open year round as I enjoy all aspects of weather...be it snow storms, rain storms, heat, cold etc. etc. I don't go into a tailspin if it doesn't snow lol.

[IrishRob17]

17 minutes ago, doncat said:

My shop is open year round as I enjoy all aspects of weather...be it snow storms, rain storms, heat, cold etc. etc. I don't go into a tailspin if it doesn't snow lol.

I'm the same way but I must admit that snow is what got me into the hobby as a child but over the years I've learned to appreciate weather in general, not just snowstorms.  It's gonna be what its gonna be, the shop doors are open.