SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said: Ooops! I don't see anything wrong with my statement. Everything Bluewave said is correct with models overdoing the -NAO blocking and the unreliable 11-15 day forecasts...have we learned nothing from last year. The ridge north of Hawaii basically screams strong Pacific jet and the -EPO is gone. There's literally nothing to prevent a much stronger SE ridge and it fits right in with the 2010s repeating patterns. So expect a mild December, a neutral January, a warm February, and a cold/snowy March. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 I think DT went through that whole video w/o mentioning SSW's and the QBO, (direction/direction reversals/speed). It is nice to know that BN Nov.'s have been followed by AN Dec.'s for a decade----but that is just a statistical connection---what is the conceptual theory behind this behavior? That is what we need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 I'm of the opinion -NAO blocking will be more likely this winter due to being near the solar minimum and having some of the warmest water in the Arctic in the Davis Strait. Last year the + SST anomalies were more impressive over the Barents Sea (N of Europe/Russia) and, like this year, near Alaska. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: Just like last year, if correct. Then, as you mention the response, just like last December , especially post 12/20/19, was the growing SE ridge. You believe this is a feedback, or is the cause for the shift in ridging further away form the West coast of NA the location of the warmer water? ( Being located further away form the West Coast ) The warm waters are not close like they were in the winter of 2014-15 I believe. Granted ,we are not talking extreme warm waters off the West Coast / the warm blob, etc., but there is an anomaly of warmer waters North of the Hawaii ridge. Seems like the anomaly has been shifting West with time. Also of note, is the Pac Jet coming in fast on the West coast of Canada, again similar to last year, when NA snow cover took a big hit up there. Even though that loss came more so during mid December 2019 period. The warm October and cold November pattern became really well defined following the record summer Arctic melt in 2012. This is also around the time that the mid 1990’s to 2010 colder December -NAO pattern reversed. Since 2011, the December NAO has been in a positive state. We also have seen the -EPO ridge relax in December from very negative November readings. So this has given us the December temperature departure rebound from November. There was also the rapid and historic warming of the entire Pacific Basin in 2013. All these factors have combined to produce these repeating monthly patterns. So we are seeing these relationships between the Atlantic, Pacific, Arctic, and Tropics as the planet continues to warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: That last Euro image looks like coast to coast cold could develop especially with some blocking Blocking is going to be the big key this winter. With too much pac influence we would end up with another inland elevated situation. It’s really hard to get it to snow along the coast without a cold feed from Canada. With a -NAO we can tap cold air from eastern Canada despite pacific influence on the rest of the country. That’s why I’m all in that this isn’t a dud. Even if the winter overall is relatively warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I don't see anything wrong with my statement. Everything Bluewave said is correct with models overdoing the -NAO blocking and the unreliable 11-15 day forecasts...have we learned nothing from last year. The ridge north of Hawaii basically screams strong Pacific jet and the -EPO is gone. There's literally nothing to prevent a much stronger SE ridge and it fits right in with the 2010s repeating patterns. So expect a mild December, a neutral January, a warm February, and a cold/snowy March. There is a difference between saying you expect a stronger SE ridge than modeled, and stating that the models show something that they dont. Whether a model forecast is unreliable or not doesnt mean you get to interpret what the models are eventually going to show when discussing what they show now. And what happened to no more prognosticating? 2 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 12Z UKMET says watch the 2nd wave this weekend. Friday's trough forces it farther S/E such that cold air and precip overlap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Dreary day...temp 42° with drizzle.. 0.03". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 47 minutes ago, BxEngine said: There is a difference between saying you expect a stronger SE ridge than modeled, and stating that the models show something that they dont. Whether a model forecast is unreliable or not doesnt mean you get to interpret what the models are eventually going to show when discussing what they show now. And what happened to no more prognosticating? 2 points. 1. The models simply cant get the long range past day 7 correct and will continue to flip flop as with conflicting telecommunications (dipping PNA, NAO, rising EPO, and unclear AO. MJO clearly avoiding the warm phases in the near term as well. 2. Even if the pattern for the next 20-30 days looked like complete and utter crap and was locked in (counter to point 1 above). who cares? It would take a nearly perfectly times storm with perfect PNA/NAO/AO combination for it to actually snow and stick in November (and even early December). In the meantime, any small snow and cold is just a bonus and way ahead of schedule. The artic blast of early November completely got everyone to false start. Take a deep breath. Its Nov. 18th. The atlantic ocean is in the mid 50's. Let it cool a bit for a few weeks. Lets talk December 1, which is still extremely early. I believe Dec 15-Mar 15 is meteorological winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 58 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 12Z UKMET says watch the 2nd wave this weekend. Friday's trough forces it farther S/E such that cold air and precip overlap. Euro also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 hour ago, doncat said: Dreary day...temp 42° with drizzle.. 0.03". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Notice how the SE Ridge amplification now being shown before Thanksgiving wasn’t even on model radar a few days ago. This is the retrogression of the -EPO ridge back to north of Hawaii. You can see how far off 11-15 day means can be when there are such big changes day 8-10. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Ukmet with the snowstorm for Sunday we’ll be watching you British and your metrics 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Notice how the SE Ridge amplification now being shown before Thanksgiving wasn’t even on model radar a few days ago. This is the retrogression of the -EPO ridge back to north of Hawaii. You can see how far off 11-15 day means can be when there are such big changes day 8-10. New run Old run Right on 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 What happened to the wind that was supposed to accompany this nor’easter? It’s still in the city right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 Getting some pretty good rain falling here. Up to 0.17" of rain so far today. Current temp 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: What happened to the wind that was supposed to accompany this nor’easter? It’s still in the city right now What wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Pretty classic -NAO sequence ahead. It's in its formative stages now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Great call @purduewx80 about the heavier showers tonight. Intensity picked up a little while ago and it's been off and on dumpage for the past hour or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 While much of the region saw readings not far from 40°, record heat again prevailed in parts of California. Records included: Long Beach: 92° (old record: 90°, 1989); Los Angeles: 93° (old record: 88°, 1989); and, San Diego: 91° (old record: 86°, 1949). Overnight, most of the region will likely see periods of rain, but pick up less than 0.50" rain. Areas well to the north and west of New York City, especially in the higher terrain, could pick up a coating of snow. Some coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -27.36 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.264. The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through at least late November. With the AO having become the dominant element shaping the Hemispheric 500 mb pattern, the base case is now a widespread cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal for the November 16-30 period). On November 17, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.461 (RMM). The November 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.338. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. Overall, the preponderance of data continues to imply a milder than normal December in the East. Should ENSO Region 3.4 continue to warm, the Indian Ocean Dipole persist, and the Arctic Oscillation trend toward neutral and later positive, the probability of such an outcome would increase. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 92% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Finally some precip during a dry month...0.40" and raining moderately. Had a 42/36 temp split today. Normals for today are 52/36 so still a -10 departure on the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 Picked up 0.31" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 .50” at the wantagh meso. Last nights brief heavy rain in the city finally washed away the salt from last weeks mess. Looks like a period of fairly boring November weather on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Had some mangled flakes at the end for a bit. .60 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 44degs , or about 0.5degs. BN. Month to date is -6.1[43.6]. Should be near -4.4[43.7] by the 27th. 43* here at 6am. 47* by 10am. 50* by Noon. Boring till Dec. 11, on the CFS when it comes to snow. Sorry, but there wasn't anything else to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 On 11/17/2019 at 11:10 AM, nycwinter said: salt damages your sneakers your floors and underground electrical when it sees down into the sewers.. isn't that what causes manhole explosions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 On 11/17/2019 at 10:54 AM, White Gorilla said: How interesting that a snowstorm hit New England on Oct 10 while a week earlier on Oct 3, one of the deadliest tornados (F4) struck Windsor Locks, CT. (Sorry if this belongs to the banter thread) must have been a highly amplified pattern! winter 1979-80 was pretty boring though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Much milder period coming up around thisThanksgiving than last year. 2018 11/22 28 17 0.00 4th coldest high, 2nd coldest low for Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 10 hours ago, Snow88 said: Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Pretty classic -NAO sequence ahead. It's in its formative stages now. It'll prevent us from torching (well almost) but the Pacific is a lot more important and the -PNA /+EPO is of no help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It'll prevent us from torching (well almost) but the Pacific is a lot more important and the -PNA /+EPO is of no help. We end up with a Maritime polar airmass with that scenario. Not going to cut it for snow along the coast. Inland and way up is a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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