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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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28 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

25 degrees out this way. WWA posted for tonight for freezing rain. First advisory of this winter season. 

Yeah looks like we may get some freezing rain, hope this isn't a trend like last winter.  I actually haven't seen anything frozen this season, not even flurries.

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26 minutes ago, Cfa said:

It’s legitimately snowing, totally wasn’t expecting that.

Temp is 33.

Some of the models were showing this snow on Long Island. Islip now has 2 days with reported snow by November 17th. This was the 2nd coldest start to November for Islip behind 1976.

17 Nov 7:56 am 34 28 79 23 NNE 17    4.00 Lt Snow BKN031,OVC039

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 16
Missing Count
1 1976-11-16 40.6 0
2 2019-11-16 41.5 0
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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Some of the models were showing this snow on Long Island. Islip now has 2 days with reported snow by November 17th. This was the 2nd coldest start to November for Islip behind 1976.

17 Nov 7:56 am 34 28 79 23 NNE 17    4.00 Lt Snow BKN031,OVC039

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 16
Missing Count
1 1976-11-16 40.6 0
2 2019-11-16 41.5 0

yes but it's always for suffolk county, although I saw some flurries yesterday with clear skies!

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I got a nice surprise this morning headed over to the beach to check out the waves. There were a few small, wet snowflakes mixed in with the drizzle. Waves are huge, easily 5-7' with the occasional 8' set crashing on the sand. It's only 36 as of now. An hour ago, it was 40, so there's got to be some diabatic cooling going on under the rain bands.

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today was the seventh day with a min 32 or lower in Central Park this month...the most 32 or lower days for November are...

year.....amount

1873.....18

since 1950.....

1976.....11 ...also two in October....

1951.....11

1967...….9

1989...….9

2013...….9

1997...….8

1996...….8

1995...….8

1955...….8

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Some of the models were showing this snow on Long Island. Islip now has 2 days with reported snow by November 17th. This was the 2nd coldest start to November for Islip behind 1976.

17 Nov 7:56 am 34 28 79 23 NNE 17    4.00 Lt Snow BKN031,OVC039

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 16
Missing Count
1 1976-11-16 40.6 0
2 2019-11-16 41.5 0

That stat is surprising, it hasn’t even felt that cold outside of a few days/nights.

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7 minutes ago, Cfa said:

That stat is surprising, it’s been cold, but nothing intolerable.

It works out to a -5.7 departure for the first 16 days of the month. About 3 to 4 weeks early early for those temperatures which are average for December 1st.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It works out to a -5.7 departure for the first 16 days of the month. About 3 to 4 weeks early early for those temperatures which are average for December 1st.

interesting that it's right up there with 1976- a dry and cold winter!  The 70s were lackluster for snow, with the exception of 77-78 which was much more like our current winters.  76-77 was particularly annoying, as was 78-79; both were very cold and we got scraped with the edges of snowfall.

Chris, I wanted to ask if you had any info on the Oct 10, 1979 snowfall event.  How did that hit DC and Philly and Boston and yet skipped over NYC and Long Island?  Very early anomalous event, maybe the most exciting of that entire season :P

 

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This cold fits well with the MJO, which moved into the cold phase 8. Many models have it making a loop in the coming couple weeks. I just posted the ECMWF forecast, but the others are available from the CPC. If it really does loop, this cold might stick around. It might not stay long enough to produce snow though.

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif.070d5889a369841c9f0cc809fcfbd30d.gif

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

interesting that it's right up there with 1976- a dry and cold winter!  The 70s were lackluster for snow, with the exception of 77-78 which was much more like our current winters.  76-77 was particularly annoying, as was 78-79; both were very cold and we got scraped with the edges of snowfall.

Chris, I wanted to ask if you had any info on the Oct 10, 1979 snowfall event.  How did that hit DC and Philly and Boston and yet skipped over NYC and Long Island?  Very early anomalous event, maybe the most exciting of that entire season :P

 

How interesting that a snowstorm hit New England on Oct 10 while a week earlier on Oct 3, one of the deadliest tornados (F4) struck Windsor Locks, CT.  (Sorry if this belongs to the banter thread) 

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21 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Looks like a mostly miss from the coastal storm that was supposed to produce a good amount of rain here tomorrow. I’m kinda happy about that, I don’t want rain if it’s going to precipitate, let it be snow! Next weekend looks interesting!

Despite whatever the lower-res NAM is showing, most guidance indicates the trough currently over the Midwest phases w/ the offshore system, allowing the rain shield to expand over the area late tomorrow. Ensemble guidance shows that precip amounts could reach 0.25-0.5" for the city by Tuesday AM.

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16 minutes ago, uncle W said:

we need a good rain to wash away all the salt on the roads and my truck because sanitation dept wasted all that salt for no good reason...

But if it rains they have to put down more salt to soak up the water so we don't have flooding...don't they?:axe: Anyway just 0.26" precip this month.

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