EasternLI Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 12 hours ago, bluewave said: There are probably 2 things that we need to get a colder and snowier December for a change. A -NAO with the MJO avoiding the Maritime Continent. Unfortunately, the models don’t do very well beyond 10 days with the NAO. The one exception seems to be with major start warming events like we saw during the last 2 springs. The MJO looks like it’s giving a strong IO signal longer range with the near record +IOD pattern. FWIW, the JMA continues this pattern for December. That being said, these long range forecasts can change pretty quickly over a few weeks. Just happened to come across a BOM update from a couple of days ago on the IOD. They expect lingering influence into January. It will be interesting to see what happens with that. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/ "The decay of the IOD is associated with the seasonal development of a monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere around December, but this process is well behind its typical schedule and is likely to happen significantly later than usual in 2019. As a result, the influence of the IOD is expected to persist into January 2020." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 1 hour ago, weathermedic said: Seems overnight temps (at least in the city) under achieved. Did the park even get down to freezing? Temp here didn’t really start dropping until almost 5 AM. Bottomed out at 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Pretty Windy. I had a peak gust of 31. And that's surrounded by trees. The ocean looks pissed. A couple roads already flooding on the barrier island, too. It's 41 here. Humidity is 43%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Relative humidity down to 13% now in NYC. This has to be a new record for NE flow in November. Central Park FAIR 40 -7 13 NE14G23 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Seems as if temps busted a bit on the high side for the city today. Made it to 42 at my station. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Rare to see the relative humidity drop under 10% at White Plains. This looks like the lowest relative humidity of the 2010’s. White Plains FAIR 39 -15 9 NE14 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NY_ASOS&station=HPN&year=2019&var=min_rh&dir=below&thres=10&dpi=100&_fmt=png 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 9 hours ago, bluewave said: Today could be one of the driest days that we have seen this time of year on a NE wind. The relative humidity is already down to 30% with dewpoints falling to near 0. The NWS even put out a special statement. This is essentially an Arctic backdoor with the temperatures modifying due to the NE flow. But the dryness remains. East Hampton FAIR 32 5 32 NE12G21 Willimantic FAIR 27 -1 30 N8 There will be an enhanced risk of fire spread today with gusty winds and low relative humidity. Winds will be out of the north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts mainly between 20 and 30 mph. Relative humidity is expected to lower to around 15 to 25 percent. Very impressive, those who went calm last night really had impressive cold. Lake placid -9 was that a record? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Coastal food warnings/watches up for south shore of Long Island and coastal NJ. Moderate flooding expected in some areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Very impressive, those who went calm last night really had impressive cold. Lake placid -9 was that a record? I believe Saranac Lake was -9 also. Even though that’s the usual cold spot up that way. Closer to the center of the HP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 RH hasn’t dipped below 30% here. Currently 36/11. High was 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Currently, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the dominant driver of the Northern Hemisphere's synoptic pattern. In part, this is why the East has been cold despite the NAO's being positive for 13/16 days this month. To date, it has averaged approximately -1.06 for November. It is likely to fall further before commencing a rise toward neutral near the end of the month. Such an outcome favors cold in the eastern third to half of the CONUS. Thus, the guidance, including the EPS and CFSv2 weeklies, has turned toward a cooler outlook for much of the remaining second half of November. The neutral EPO has reduced prospects of severe cold and the current Arctic air mass that grazed the region might be the last such outbreak for awhile. Composite Temperature Anomalies for an AO ranging from -2.00 to -1.00 (November 16-30, 1981-2018): In the extended range, the AO is forecast to go neutral and then possibly positive. AO Forecast (GEFS): Should that forecast verify, the cold pattern will likely break down unless the EPO or some other variable attains greater influence over the synoptic pattern than is currently the case (with perhaps a modest lag). For now, the AO is the key driver. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Currently, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the dominant driver of the Northern Hemisphere's synoptic pattern. In part, this is why the East has been cold despite the NAO's being positive for 13/16 days this month. To date, it has averaged approximately -1.06 for November. It is likely to fall further before commencing a rise toward neutral near the end of the month. Such an outcome favors cold in the eastern third to half of the CONUS. Thus, the guidance, including the EPS and CFSv2 weeklies, has turned toward a cooler outlook for much of the remaining second half of November. The neutral EPO has reduced prospects of severe cold and the current Arctic air mass that grazed the region might be the last such outbreak for awhile. Composite Temperature Anomalies for an AO ranging from -2.00 to -1.00 (November 16-30, 1981-2018): In the extended range, the AO is forecast to go neutral and then possibly positive. AO Forecast (GEFS): Should that forecast verify, the cold pattern will likely break down unless the EPO or some other variable attains greater influence over the synoptic pattern than is currently the case (with perhaps a modest lag). For now, the AO is the key driver. one lonely member stays quite negative...some members are dipping at the end of the period...yesterdays forecast looked better and the day before wasn't as good...I would not be surprised if tomorrows forecast shows more negative values...I do think a relaxation in the neg ao comes sometime in Dec and hopefully its during the beginning of the month... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 I looked at the coldest Novembers in NYC since 1823 and came up with this list...mild and cold are based on the averages from around those years... year...……..Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb...March... 1823-24...cold...norm...mild...norm...cold... 1827-28...cold...norm...mild...mild....mild... 1833-34...cold...norm...cold...mild...norm... 1834-35...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold... 1836-37...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold 1838-39...cold...cold...norm...norm...norm 1839-40...cold...mild...cold....mild....mild... 1842-43...cold...cold....mild...cold....cold 1843-44...cold...mild....cold...cold....mild 1848-49...cold...mild....cold...cold....norm 1851-52...cold...mild....cold...norm...cold... 1856-57...cold...mild....cold....mild...cold 1857-58...cold...mild....mild....cold...cold 1858-59...cold...cold...cold....mild....mild 1871-72...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold 1872-73...cold...cold...cold....cold....cold 1873-74...cold...mild....mild...norm...norm 1875-76...cold...norm...mild...norm...cold 1880-81...cold....cold....cold...cold....cold 1882-83...cold....cold....cold...cold....cold 1887-88...cold...norm...cold...cold....cold 1894-95...cold...mild.....cold...cold....cold 1901-02...cold...norm...cold....cold...mild 1910-11...cold...cold....mild...norm...cold 1917-18...cold...cold....cold....cold....mild 1925-26...cold...norm...norm...cold...cold 1933-34...cold...cold....mild....cold....cold 1936-37...cold...mild....mild....mild....cold 1951-52...cold...mild....mild....mild....norm 1955-56...cold...cold...norm...mild....cold 1959-60...cold...mild....norm...mild...cold 1962-63...cold...cold....cold....cold....mild 1967-68...cold...mild....cold....cold....mild 1971-72...cold...mild....mild...norm...cold 1972-73...cold...mild....mild...norm...mild 1976-77...cold...cold....cold...norm...mild 1980-81...cold...cold....cold...mild....norm 1986-87...cold...mild...norm...norm...mild 1989-90...cold...cold....mild....mild....mild 1995-96...cold...cold....cold....cold....cold 1996-97...cold...mild...norm...mild...norm 1997-98...cold...mild....mild....mild....mild 2000-01...cold...cold....mild....mild....cold 2007-08...cold...mild....mild....mild....norm 2008-09...cold...mild....cold....mild....norm 2012-13...cold...mild....mild....norm....cold 2013-14...cold...mild....cold....cold....cold 2014-15...cold...mild....cold....cold....cold 2018-19...cold...mild...norm...mild...norm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, uncle W said: one lonely member stays quite negative...some members are dipping at the end of the period...yesterdays forecast looked better and the day before wasn't as good...I would not be surprised if tomorrows forecast shows more negative values...I do think a relaxation in the neg ao comes sometime in Dec and hopefully its during the beginning of the month... Are you still liking the possibility of snow near Christmas? Some of your analogs were very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Just now, frd said: Are you still liking the possibility of snow near Christmas? Some of your analogs were very interesting. I'll be on that train until I see a brick wall ahead... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Just now, uncle W said: I'll be on that train until I see a brick wall ahead... Did you mention as well we see a break then in Jan and Feb with March be snowy? ( Or was that just pertaining to a analog year you were referencing ? Sorry, I read all your posts, but there are so many great ones with various analogs I get a bit confused. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 back in September 1966 a meteorologist who was working for CBS2 in NYC predicted a white Christmas for NYC..I think his name was Harry Geise? (spelling) ...it was either a great guess or a great forecast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: Did you mention as well we see a break then in Jan and Feb with March be snowy? ( Or was that just pertaining to a analog year you were referencing ? Sorry, I read all your posts, but there are so many great ones with various analogs I get a bit confused. :-) it was pertaining to one specific analog but some of the others have lulls in the action... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 1 minute ago, uncle W said: back in September 1966 a meteorologist who was working for CBS2 in NYC predicted a white Christmas for NYC..I think his name was Harry Geise? (spelling) ...it was either a great guess or a great forecast... My mom, when she was alive, would always talk about that snowstorm. I believe she mentioned thunder and lightening with it. We were on our way to Christmas eve services. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Just now, frd said: My mom, when she was alive, would always talk about that snowstorm. I believe she mentioned thunder and lightening with it. We were on our way to Christmas eve services. there was thunder and sleet with that storm...NYC got dry slotted also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 41° high temp today... -6° departure now for month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 While we have seen record cold during recent Novembers, this year Is showing us something more impressive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 An Arctic air mass passed across northern New England today, only grazing parts of the region. Caribou had a low temperature of 8° this morning, which broke the previous daily mark of 10° from 1985. In contrast, Newark had a low temperature of 32°. The strong coastal storm that will lash the Carolinas tonight and tomorrow will pass sufficiently far offshore to avoid bringing much of the region significant rainfall. Most of the region, with perhaps the exception of parts of Suffolk County and New Haven County eastward will likely pick up less than 0.50" rain. Gusty winds are likely Sunday and Monday. Some coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide. Miami's near-record streak of 225 consecutive 80° days, which began on April 5, ended today as the mercury topped out at 78°. That was just below the record of 227 consecutive days, which was set from March 31, 1994 through November 12, 1994. In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) remained on track for its warmest autumn on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Utqiagvik is on course for an autumn mean temperature 26.6°-27.4°. The record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016. In terms of global temperatures, the October GISS data is now in. Despite parts of the Northern Rockies experiencing the coldest October on record, October 2019 ranked as the second warmest October on record with a +1.04°C anomaly. Only 2015 with a +1.09°C anomaly was warmer. As a result, 2019 has a year-to-date anomaly of +0.97°C, which is the second warmest at this point in time. 2019 remains on course to be the second warmest year on record on that dataset. That last time a two-month period was cool enough to avoid such an outcome was June-July 2014 with a +0.63°C anomaly. The last time November-December was cool enough was in 2012 with a +0.66°C anomaly. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was +1.84 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.189. The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative into late November. With the AO having become the dominant element shaping the Hemispheric 500 mb pattern, the base case is now a widespread cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal). A pattern evolution toward a milder regime still appears likely to develop near the start of December as the AO is forecast to rise toward and then above neutral values. Should the current negative AO regime persist, such moderation would likely be delayed. Through November 16, the AO has averaged -1.059. Since 1950, 60% of cases that saw the November AO average -1.500 to -1.000 saw a December AO average below 0. Since 1950, 50% of November cases with an average AO of -.999 to -0.500 saw the AO average below 0 in December. In short, at present there is no clear signal regarding the possible predominant AO state for December. On November 15, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.278 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.860. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 90% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 5 hours ago, uncle W said: I looked at the coldest Novembers in NYC since 1823 and came up with this list...mild and cold are based on the averages from around those years... year...……..Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb...March... 1823-24...cold...norm...mild...norm...cold... 1827-28...cold...norm...mild...mild....mild... 1833-34...cold...norm...cold...mild...norm... 1834-35...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold... 1836-37...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold 1838-39...cold...cold...norm...norm...norm 1839-40...cold...mild...cold....mild....mild... 1842-43...cold...cold....mild...cold....cold 1843-44...cold...mild....cold...cold....mild 1848-49...cold...mild....cold...cold....norm 1851-52...cold...mild....cold...norm...cold... 1856-57...cold...mild....cold....mild...cold 1857-58...cold...mild....mild....cold...cold 1858-59...cold...cold...cold....mild....mild 1871-72...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold 1872-73...cold...cold...cold....cold....cold 1873-74...cold...mild....mild...norm...norm 1875-76...cold...norm...mild...norm...cold 1880-81...cold....cold....cold...cold....cold 1882-83...cold....cold....cold...cold....cold 1887-88...cold...norm...cold...cold....cold 1894-95...cold...mild.....cold...cold....cold 1901-02...cold...norm...cold....cold...mild 1910-11...cold...cold....mild...norm...cold 1917-18...cold...cold....cold....cold....mild 1925-26...cold...norm...norm...cold...cold 1933-34...cold...cold....mild....cold....cold 1936-37...cold...mild....mild....mild....cold 1951-52...cold...mild....mild....mild....norm 1955-56...cold...cold...norm...mild....cold 1959-60...cold...mild....norm...mild...cold 1962-63...cold...cold....cold....cold....mild 1967-68...cold...mild....cold....cold....mild 1971-72...cold...mild....mild...norm...cold 1972-73...cold...mild....mild...norm...mild 1976-77...cold...cold....cold...norm...mild 1980-81...cold...cold....cold...mild....norm 1986-87...cold...mild...norm...norm...mild 1989-90...cold...cold....mild....mild....mild 1995-96...cold...cold....cold....cold....cold 1996-97...cold...mild...norm...mild...norm 1997-98...cold...mild....mild....mild....mild 2000-01...cold...cold....mild....mild....cold 2007-08...cold...mild....mild....mild....norm 2008-09...cold...mild....cold....mild....norm 2012-13...cold...mild....mild....norm....cold 2013-14...cold...mild....cold....cold....cold 2014-15...cold...mild....cold....cold....cold 2018-19...cold...mild...norm...mild...norm It's as if there's an inverse relationship between November temperatures compared to December temperatures over the past 25 years, especially considering that two noteworthy cold Dec/January winters (93/94 and 2010/2011) aren't listed and therefore apparently did not have cold Novembers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 11:50 AM, Snow88 said: Models are starting to get in agreement on high latitude blocking taking shape at the end of this month. Can it change? Of course but the pattern is looking good moving forward. The cold keeps reloading on the gfs. Very nice pattern with a storm threat next weekend. Yes, I already see that there's another cold shot scheduled for next weekend and milder temps are now pushed back until Thanksgiving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 On 11/15/2019 at 11:19 AM, bluewave said: It may not make much of a difference for us if the AMO goes more negative in the future. The waters of the NW Atlantic have seen some of fastest rates of increase. Perhaps a combination of the upward global SST trend and the slowing AMOC. So we get the persistent cool pool south of Greenland and warm SST’s off the East Coast. This effect could mute any influence on our weather of a more -AMO. The 1980’s were a much colder SST and global climate era. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/05/amoc-slowdown-connecting-the-dots/ Have you seen the research that came out recently showing that the gulf stream is warming more rapidly than the rest of the Atlantic? Does this mean more rapidly bombing coastal storms and higher precip totals? I think we're already seeing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 5 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: It's as if there's an inverse relationship between November temperatures compared to December temperatures over the past 25 years, especially considering that two noteworthy cold Dec/January winters (93/94 and 2010/2011) aren't listed and therefore apparently did not have cold Novembers. lol@ 1995-96, that looks like the only winter since the turn of the century where all of the months were cold. Might be the last one we see in our lifetimes like that too. In the other 6 times that happened (all in the 1800s), it happened in pairs of 2 seasons each- interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 45degs., or just about Normal. Month to date is -5.8[44.3]. Should be near -3.9[44.5] by the 25th. 32* here at 6am. 34* at 7am. 35* at 8am. 37* at 9am. 41* by 11am. 43* by 1pm. SREF Plumes down to 0.30" Rain late today into Monday. Two days ago it had 1", starting this PM. Coastal has consolidated near 31.3N 75.4W, this AM---a little se. from yesterday at this time. Rest of month still a winterwise bore(sans TGD?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Flurrying in wading river this morning, 30f 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 25 degrees out this way. WWA posted for tonight for freezing rain. First advisory of this winter season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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