November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Has the AMO switched back yet or is it forecast to do so within the next few years?  I know we had a lot of cold dry winters back in the 80s, so it's probably not going to be as exciting as the last couple of decades have been.

 

The projections i have seen are 2023-2029 being the window.  I think somewhere closer to 2023 is more likely.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

yeah that year and 11/12 featured dry warm conditions which started around 11/1 and never really wavered except for a 10 day period in mid to late January those years.

Bastardi has long said that drought conditions in the East from 10/1-11/15 are usually a bad indicator for the winter most of the time.  Not only indicating dry but also that it may be mild.  1994, 2001, and 2011 all saw that happen.

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this weekend may have the last arctic shot for a long time, and looks like the Euro will be right with its idea of a single Scandanavian high, rather than the dual blocking pattern of the GFS.

conjecture at this point....models change in a heartbeat.  Also, who wants cold in November?  It rarely yields anything.   Let the cold pattern wait til 12/1 or even 1/1.  

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Bastardi has long said that drought conditions in the East from 10/1-11/15 are usually a bad indicator for the winter most of the time.  Not only indicating dry but also that it may be mild.  1994, 2001, and 2011 all saw that happen.

agree-although I think 2013 was very dry and we did well.    We had a very wet October this year so that's good.  November has been dry but that often comes with the arctic (dry) cold.

[binbisso]

I know Blue Wave has recently posted about how patterns have locked in this decade for a long period of time, however a locked in pattern usually last four to six weeks before there's a relaxation or change. In the current climate where in I would never believe a locked in cold pattern that last for months it's just not happening now. warm yes but not cold

[binbisso]

I should add we've also had a very anomalous pattern across the continental US the last month or so with record cold out west and now in the east which at times have obliterated records, that has to relax it cannot continue. I think we're below normal through the first week of December and then we'll warm a bit before it gets cold the end of the month. My reasoning is purely on the mjo which really has been a main driver here for a while during the winter months. My assumption is now we're going through cold phases it will then head towards the warmer phases before looping back through 8 1 and 2 sometime late December.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Has the AMO switched back yet or is it forecast to do so within the next few years?  I know we had a lot of cold dry winters back in the 80s, so it's probably not going to be as exciting as the last couple of decades have been.

 

It may not make much of a difference for us if the AMO goes more negative in the future. The waters of the NW Atlantic have seen some of fastest rates of increase. Perhaps a combination of the upward global SST trend and the slowing AMOC. So we get the persistent cool pool south of Greenland and warm SST’s off the East Coast. This effect could mute any influence on our weather of a more -AMO. The 1980’s were a much colder SST and global climate era.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/05/amoc-slowdown-connecting-the-dots/

[NYCweatherNOW]

26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Bastardi has long said that drought conditions in the East from 10/1-11/15 are usually a bad indicator for the winter most of the time.  Not only indicating dry but also that it may be mild.  1994, 2001, and 2011 all saw that happen.

I disagree a dry autumn means a cold and snowy winter. 

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this weekend may have the last arctic shot for a long time, and looks like the Euro will be right with its idea of a single Scandanavian high, rather than the dual blocking pattern of the GFS.

Models are starting to get in agreement on high latitude blocking taking shape at the end of this month. Can  it change? Of course but the pattern is looking good moving forward.

 

The cold keeps reloading on the gfs. Very nice pattern  with a storm threat next weekend.

[TJW014]

Gorgeous out here today. It's 50 here and I'm in shorts and a t-shirt. 

[mikem81]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Models are starting to get in agreement on high latitude blocking taking shape at the end of this month. Can  it change? Of course but the pattern is looking good moving forward.

 

The cold keeps reloading on the gfs. Very nice pattern  with a storm threat next weekend.

Let us know when the EPS and GEFS agree on this.....

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Let us know when the EPS and GEFS agree on this.....

Gefs does agree

[mikem81]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs does agree

Yes, Ive seen the 12Z. GEFS has suggested a colder than usual pattern for end of the month. However, the EPS is not really on board yet. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Yes, Ive seen the 12Z. GEFS has suggested a colder than usual pattern for end of the month. However, the EPS is not really on board yet. 

We just need to get it on board.  Gefs and geps agree on a good pattern going forward with blocking.  Can blocking finally make a comeback after a long time ?

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd still watch T-day week...there's some decent cold hanging around and there's a pretty decent -NAO look on both GEFS and EPS.

 

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We just need to get it on board.  Gefs and geps agree on a good pattern going forward with blocking.  Can blocking finally make a comeback after a long time ?

There's some potential last week of November if models are correct about the blocking however they've been very shifty as of late.

The cold will also be quite marginal.

GEFS would be a great pattern particularly from mid Dec onwards when climo becomes more favorable.

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I disagree a dry autumn means a cold and snowy winter. 

When you make claims like this back it up with evidence. It will mean a lot more with some sort of scientific reasoning. Meteorology is a science not a belief system. 

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

conjecture at this point....models change in a heartbeat.  Also, who wants cold in November?  It rarely yields anything.   Let the cold pattern wait til 12/1 or even 1/1.  

2011 is the tenth wettest fall on record...1972 one of the wettest...dry is a concern like Nov. 1976...if it stays cold we will get some snow...the driest ten year period in NYC was from 1956-1965...five of the winters in those years were snowy with major storms...

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Bastardi has long said that drought conditions in the East from 10/1-11/15 are usually a bad indicator for the winter most of the time.  Not only indicating dry but also that it may be mild.  1994, 2001, and 2011 all saw that happen.

His observation is correct, at least since 1980. Since 1980, when precipitation during the 10/1-11/15 period was 0.5 sigma or more below normal, 58% of winters had seasonal snowfall below 20" in New York City. 25% had 30" or more.

2019 does not fall into that category. Its precipitation was 6.40", which was nearly identical to the 1981-2010 baseline normal figure of 6.31" for that period.  22% of winters following precipitation above -0.50 sigma for the 10/1-11/15 period saw less than 20" snow.

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's some potential last week of November if models are correct about the blocking however they've been very shifty as of late.

The cold will also be quite marginal.

GEFS would be a great pattern particularly from mid Dec onwards when climo becomes more favorable.

Eps just trended to the gefs in regards  to a colder pattern starting next week with blocking over the top. 

[RedSky]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s really difficult to extrapolate the December pattern based on what models are showing for late November or even the start of December. The temperature trend since 1981 for the first half of December is generally flat in NYC. The bulk of the warming has occurred during the second half of the month. This is why the warmth around the solstice has become such  a prominent feature. So The pattern during the second half of the month is often the decider. 2017 was the only cold December in NYC since 2010. While there was a warm up around the solstice, the impressive cold to end the month tipped it cold.

Undeniable proof that the weather gods want to deprive the holidays of snow.

 

[MJO812]

Gfs is going nuts again with the blocking with a nice storm especially for the interior next weekend. Maybe this time the blocking is real.

[EasternLI]

-NAO signal is still there. This is what that looks like on an ensemble mean. The EPS took steps towards this look today. First 00z then again at 12z. Here's the GEFS.

 

Now, that outcome actually has some support. From the MJO. Some research has shown that MJO passage through phase 7 can force -NAO between 10 - 20 days later, if the atmosphere is receptive. +NAO after passage through phase 3. Right on time as per latest guidance. 

Note, I'm not looking for any specific storm threats right now. I'm more interested in the big picture. I'm a pretty big fan of what's been happening thus far.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

-NAO signal is still there. This is what that looks like on an ensemble mean. The EPS took steps towards this look today. First 00z then again at 12z. Here's the GEFS.

 

Now, that outcome actually has some support. From the MJO. Some research has shown that MJO passage through phase 7 can force -NAO between 10 - 20 days later, if the atmosphere is receptive. +NAO after passage through phase 3. Right on time as per latest guidance. 

Note, I'm not looking for any specific storm threats right now. I'm more interested in the big picture. I'm a pretty big fan of what's been happening thus far.

Things are looking really good for winter lovers starting next week and continuing for the  foreseeable future.

Gfs has blocking starting at 150 hours. The ensembles are also honking at the blocking.

There is a serious  threat of a storm next weekend. Details will be panned out as we get closer.

[NYCweatherNOW]

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Things are looking really good for winter lovers starting next week and continuing for the  foreseeable future.

Gfs has blocking starting at 150 hours. The ensembles are also honking at the blocking.

There is a serious  threat of a storm next weekend. Details will be panned out as we get closer.

I would watch the November 23rd to 26th timeframe for a significant snow event

[donsutherland1]

Following a day where temperatures reached or exceeded 50° in much of the Middle Atlantic region, another shot of cold air will affect the region. The most significant cold anomalies will impact northern New England.

New York City had a mean temperature of 44.8° for November 1-15. That was the coldest mean temperature for the first half of November since 1976 when the average temperature was 42.1°.

In Chicago, the mean temperature was 31.2°. That was the coldest first half of November on record in Chicago. The previous record was 31.4°, which was set in 1991. Records go back to 1872.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was +0.51 today.

An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.436.

The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through the 10 days. Such an outcome increasingly indicates that the probability of cooler than normal readings for the second half of November has increased. The base case is now a widespread modest cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal).

On November 14, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.872 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 2.139. The MJO's progression has accelerated in recent days.

The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December.

It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 89% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 2degs. BN 

Month to date is  -5.4[44.8].           Should be near  -4.2[44.2] by the24th.

37* here at 6am.     35* by 8am.

SREF Plumes down to 0.60" Rain from Sun. PM to Mon. PM.    Storm evolving near 32.5N 76.4W at 6am.

[bluewave]

Today could be one of the driest days that we have seen this time of year on a NE wind. The relative humidity is already down to 30% with dewpoints falling to near 0. The NWS even put out a special statement. This is essentially an Arctic backdoor with the temperatures modifying due to the  NE flow. But the dryness remains.

East Hampton   FAIR      32   5  32 NE12G21 

Willimantic    FAIR      27  -1  30 N8   

There will be an enhanced risk of fire spread today with gusty
winds and low relative humidity. Winds will be out of the north to
northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts mainly between 20 and 30
mph. Relative humidity is expected to lower to around 15 to 25
percent.

 

[weathermedic]

Seems overnight temps (at least in the city) under achieved. Did the park even get down to freezing?

[doncat]

11 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Seems overnight temps (at least in the city) under achieved. Did the park even get down to freezing?

My station  just made it to 32°...Not a lot of recovery today with caa  continuing.