bluewave Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 This was the 14th coldest first 2 weeks of November in NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 14 Missing Count 1 1873-11-14 40.4 0 2 1869-11-14 41.2 0 3 1875-11-14 41.8 0 4 1871-11-14 42.0 0 5 1976-11-14 42.3 0 - 1887-11-14 42.3 0 6 1878-11-14 42.4 0 7 1894-11-14 42.8 0 8 1933-11-14 43.2 0 9 1921-11-14 43.9 0 10 1962-11-14 44.1 0 11 1939-11-14 44.3 0 12 1917-11-14 44.5 0 13 1905-11-14 44.7 0 14 2019-11-14 44.8 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: This was the 14th coldest first 2 weeks of November in NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 14 Missing Count 1 1873-11-14 40.4 0 2 1869-11-14 41.2 0 3 1875-11-14 41.8 0 4 1871-11-14 42.0 0 5 1976-11-14 42.3 0 - 1887-11-14 42.3 0 6 1878-11-14 42.4 0 7 1894-11-14 42.8 0 8 1933-11-14 43.2 0 9 1921-11-14 43.9 0 10 1962-11-14 44.1 0 11 1939-11-14 44.3 0 12 1917-11-14 44.5 0 13 1905-11-14 44.7 0 14 2019-11-14 44.8 0 Interesting that neither last November or the one before are on this list- both were very cold! Also interesting not to see the very snowy and cold November 1989 and November 2012 not on this list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Interesting that neither last November or the one before are on this list- both were very cold! Also interesting not to see the very snowy and cold November 1989 and November 2012 not on this list. The cold came later last November. It was the 4th coldest 14th-24th on record for NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 14 to Nov 24 Missing Count 1 1880-11-24 30.7 0 2 1873-11-24 34.3 0 3 1882-11-24 35.9 0 4 2018-11-24 36.8 0 5 1933-11-24 37.3 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: This was the 14th coldest first 2 weeks of November in NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 14 Missing Count 1 1873-11-14 40.4 0 2 1869-11-14 41.2 0 3 1875-11-14 41.8 0 4 1871-11-14 42.0 0 5 1976-11-14 42.3 0 - 1887-11-14 42.3 0 6 1878-11-14 42.4 0 7 1894-11-14 42.8 0 8 1933-11-14 43.2 0 9 1921-11-14 43.9 0 10 1962-11-14 44.1 0 11 1939-11-14 44.3 0 12 1917-11-14 44.5 0 13 1905-11-14 44.7 0 14 2019-11-14 44.8 0 Thought it would be higher on the list, then I saw all the 1800's...Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, doncat said: Thought it would be higher on the list, then I saw all the 1800's...Lol We were more competitive with the late 1880’s on the number of freezes for NYC. This year tied the record of 5 days for the first 2 weeks of November. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Nov 1 to Nov 14 Missing Count 1 2019-11-14 5 0 - 1976-11-14 5 0 - 1933-11-14 5 0 - 1886-11-14 5 0 - 1879-11-14 5 0 - 1871-11-14 5 0 2 2004-11-14 4 0 - 1951-11-14 4 0 - 1926-11-14 4 0 - 1875-11-14 4 0 - 1873-11-14 4 0 - 1869-11-14 4 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: We were more competitive with the late 1880’s on the number of freezes for NYC. This year tied the record of 5 days for the first 2 weeks of November. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Nov 1 to Nov 14 Missing Count 1 2019-11-14 5 0 - 1976-11-14 5 0 - 1933-11-14 5 0 - 1886-11-14 5 0 - 1879-11-14 5 0 - 1871-11-14 5 0 2 2004-11-14 4 0 - 1951-11-14 4 0 - 1926-11-14 4 0 - 1875-11-14 4 0 - 1873-11-14 4 0 - 1869-11-14 4 0 Wow that is pretty good! With the arctic shot coming in for the start of the weekend, we'll break that record (for the first 16-17 days anyway.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wow that is pretty good! With the arctic shot coming in for the start of the weekend, we'll break that record (for the first 16-17 days anyway.) The record colder minimums are really driving the departures this month in NYC. min temp departure....-6.9...max....-4.0.....avg....-5.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: The record colder minimums are really driving the departure this month in NYC. min temp departure....-6.9...max....-4.0.....avg....-5.5 thats a big change! what has neutralized the effect of UHI? The fact that we've had fresh arctic masses coming in every few days rather than a lingering stale arctic air mass? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The record colder minimums are really driving the departures this month in NYC. min temp departure....-6.9...max....-4.0.....avg....-5.5 Boy it's nice to see low min's rather than hig for a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: thats a big change! what has neutralized the effect of UHI? The fact that we've had fresh arctic masses coming in every few days rather than a lingering stale arctic air mass? I am not sure that Manhattan was ever the greatest spot to radiate at night. It is a narrow island surrounded by water. So NYC probably always needed strong cold air advection to set record lows. I found this UHI study that was published 11 years ago with data through 2002. It found that UHI was already strongly established by around 1900. In addition, the UHI effect isn’t really that much stronger in Central Park than it was back then. They have a bunch of charts and graphs. http://www.theurbanclimatologist.com/uploads/4/4/2/5/44250401/gaffinetal2008nycuhiandtemptrends.pdf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Enjoy the November cold everyone; it might be the only cold you have 2 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 33 minutes ago, psv88 said: Enjoy the November cold everyone; it might be the only cold you have Joke? In all seriousness based on what? It’s a pretty safe bet at this point to go with an above normal winter but there should be another cold period sometime in January-March even 2011/12 had at least one cold period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am not sure that Manhattan was ever the greatest spot to radiate at night. It is a narrow island surrounded by water. So NYC probably always needed strong cold air advection to set record lows. I found this UHI study that was published 11 years ago with data through 2002. It found that UHI was already strongly established by around 1900. In addition, the UHI effect isn’t really that much stronger in Central Park than it was back then. They have a bunch of charts and graphs. http://www.theurbanclimatologist.com/uploads/4/4/2/5/44250401/gaffinetal2008nycuhiandtemptrends.pdf If you look at the foot print of Manhattan developers started building around the park fairly early in the 1880s. Since then not much has changed, you have a large park surrounded by buildings. As far as the lows it’s been dry again, need a cloudy day to keep highs down and we haven’t seen that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Joke? In all seriousness based on what? It’s a pretty safe bet at this point to go with an above normal winter but there should be another cold period sometime in January-March even 2011/12 had at least one cold period. The upcoming relaxation. I'm not convinced we re-load. "Another cold period sometime between January and March", really can't miss with that one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: This was the 14th coldest first 2 weeks of November in NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 14 Missing Count 1 1873-11-14 40.4 0 2 1869-11-14 41.2 0 3 1875-11-14 41.8 0 4 1871-11-14 42.0 0 5 1976-11-14 42.3 0 - 1887-11-14 42.3 0 6 1878-11-14 42.4 0 7 1894-11-14 42.8 0 8 1933-11-14 43.2 0 9 1921-11-14 43.9 0 10 1962-11-14 44.1 0 11 1939-11-14 44.3 0 12 1917-11-14 44.5 0 13 1905-11-14 44.7 0 14 2019-11-14 44.8 0 of the 14 previous years listed... 1873-74...was a mild winter with slightly above average snowfall for its time... 1869-70...was a mild winter with average snowfall for its time... 1875-76...was a mild winter with below average snowfall but did have one major snowstorm... 1871-72...was a cold winter from beginning to end...snowfall was well below average... 1976-77...was a very cold winter until mid Feb...snowfall was slightly below average... 1887-88...was a very cold winter with above average snowfall because of the March blizzard... 1894-95...cold winter with average snowfall... 1878-79...cold winter with above average snowfall...one major snowstorm... 1933-34...very cold winter...three major snowstorms... 1921-22...cold winter with average snowfall... 1962-63...very cold winter with well below average snowfall... 1939-40...very cold winter with slightly below average snowfall... 1917-18...very cold winter with above average snowfall...one major snowstorm... 1905-06...was a mild winter with less snow than average... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 34 minutes ago, psv88 said: The upcoming relaxation. I'm not convinced we re-load. "Another cold period sometime between January and March", really can't miss with that one... Between Jan 20 and Mar 20 BOOK IT! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, uncle W said: of the 14 previous years listed... 1873-74...was a mild winter with slightly above average snowfall for its time... 1869-70...was a mild winter with average snowfall for its time... 1875-76...was a mild winter with below average snowfall but did have one major snowstorm... 1871-72...was a cold winter from beginning to end...snowfall was well below average... 1976-77...was a very cold winter until mid Feb...snowfall was slightly below average... 1887-88...was a very cold winter with above average snowfall because of the March blizzard... 1894-95...cold winter with average snowfall... 1878-79...cold winter with above average snowfall...one major snowstorm... 1933-34...very cold winter...three major snowstorms... 1921-22...cold winter with average snowfall... 1962-63...very cold winter with well below average snowfall... 1939-40...very cold winter with slightly below average snowfall... 1917-18...very cold winter with above average snowfall...one major snowstorm... 1905-06...was a mild winter with less snow than average... wow 1917-18 only had one major snowstorm even though 60" of snow fell that year and it was below zero multiple times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 43 minutes ago, psv88 said: The upcoming relaxation. I'm not convinced we re-load. "Another cold period sometime between January and March", really can't miss with that one... Uh? Are you looking at the ensembles ? Models are starting to show blocking which is moving up in time. Hopefully that occurs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: I am not sure that Manhattan was ever the greatest spot to radiate at night. It is a narrow island surrounded by water. So NYC probably always needed strong cold air advection to set record lows. I found this UHI study that was published 11 years ago with data through 2002. It found that UHI was already strongly established by around 1900. In addition, the UHI effect isn’t really that much stronger in Central Park than it was back then. They have a bunch of charts and graphs. http://www.theurbanclimatologist.com/uploads/4/4/2/5/44250401/gaffinetal2008nycuhiandtemptrends.pdf Yeah when I went back and looked at the surface maps post 1910 of all the below zero nights I think all of them minus that insane 1917 outbreak had strong winds. The difference is for some reason there were more instances of highs/arctic outbreaks entering the US east of 80-85W back then where as now we rarely if ever see that and when we do often times the trajectory will be too E-SE so the core of the cold air goes over New England and not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 50 minutes ago, psv88 said: The upcoming relaxation. I'm not convinced we re-load. "Another cold period sometime between January and March", really can't miss with that one... I’m talking an extended period, weeks not days. An 01/02 redux is extremely unlikely this winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Of the top 10 coldest November average temperature years since 1990 in NYC, most had a mild December. Nearly all of the few cold Decembers were La Ninas. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Dep 1996 43.0 41.3 +3.8 1995 43.6 32.4 -5.1 2012 43.9 41.5 +4.0 2018 44.4 40.1 +2.6 1997 44.5 38.2 +0.7 2014 45.3 40.5 +3.0 2013 45.3 38.5 +1.9 2000 45.3 31.1 -6.4 2007 45.4 37.0 -0.5 2008 45.9 38.1 +0.6 2002 46.0 36.0 -1.5 1992 46.5 37.9 +0.4 hence why a cold November is usually a bad sign for winters here lol. the exceptions were all la ninas? nope 2002 was a major el nino exception (but it also had a hot summer so that may partially explain it- a late onset el nino.) 2013 and 2014 weren't la ninas either were there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah when I went back and looked at the surface maps post 1910 of all the below zero nights I think all of them minus that insane 1917 outbreak had strong winds. The difference is for some reason there were more instances of highs/arctic outbreaks entering the US east of 80-85W back then where as now we rarely if ever see that and when we do often times the trajectory will be too E-SE so the core of the cold air goes over New England and not here. maybe the lack of arctic highs entering further east has to do with the arctic warming and the glacier melt over Greenland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m talking an extended period, weeks not days. An 01/02 redux is extremely unlikely this winter Yep, thats why I said Jan 20 to Mar 20 that's been the pattern this decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Weather pattern next 2 weeks looks pretty dull honestly, surprised given some of the teleconnections/MJO. This has been a dry month too and that looks to continue, really hope that's not a theme heading forward. There's some blocking showing up but without a -EPO we're just dealing with a stale north Pacific airmass that'll bring near normal temps. I guess it could be much worse but not much to get excited about for a long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: maybe the lack of arctic highs entering further east has to do with the arctic warming and the glacier melt over Greenland. It could be some sort of cold AMO connection too. Most of the below 0 days occurred during that so likely has at least some impact on it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It could be some sort of cold AMO connection too. Most of the below 0 days occurred during that so likely has at least some impact on it Has the AMO switched back yet or is it forecast to do so within the next few years? I know we had a lot of cold dry winters back in the 80s, so it's probably not going to be as exciting as the last couple of decades have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Weather pattern next 2 weeks looks pretty dull honestly, surprised given some of the teleconnections/MJO. This has been a dry month too and that looks to continue, really hope that's not a theme heading forward. There's some blocking showing up but without a -EPO we're just dealing with a stale north Pacific airmass that'll bring near normal temps. I guess it could be much worse but not much to get excited about for a long time. well cold and dry / mild and wet would be a sign of an AMO switch..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Weather pattern next 2 weeks looks pretty dull honestly, surprised given some of the teleconnections/MJO. This has been a dry month too and that looks to continue, really hope that's not a theme heading forward. There's some blocking showing up but without a -EPO we're just dealing with a stale north Pacific airmass that'll bring near normal temps. I guess it could be much worse but not much to get excited about for a long time. this weekend may have the last arctic shot for a long time, and looks like the Euro will be right with its idea of a single Scandanavian high, rather than the dual blocking pattern of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m talking an extended period, weeks not days. An 01/02 redux is extremely unlikely this winter yeah that year and 11/12 featured dry warm conditions which started around 11/1 and never really wavered except for a 10 day period in mid to late January those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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