uncle W Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 the ao/nao forecasts are looking great today...They probably will change tomorrow but it is on a very good trend... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 59 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Was looking at that yesterday on gfs. Said to myself that looks like some pretty windy conditions on the outer banks 49 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Not a good situation for the OBX. They are in bad shape from this past hurricane season. I would expect some wash overs and damage with the that kind of fetch. Looks like the swell is directed away from us though Yeah, more coastal flooding and beach erosion looks possible for that part of the coast. Not what they wanted to see following Dorian in September and Florence last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 28 minutes ago, uncle W said: the ao/nao forecasts are looking great today...They probably will change tomorrow but it is on a very good trend... Pna is also going positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 NAO, PNA and AO looks great moving forward. December might be a really nice month for snow lovers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: NAO, PNA and AO looks great moving forward. December might be a really nice month for snow lovers. I'm not falling for this trick again. All signs show December being mostly mild however there's a window early on for some action. The cold air does look pretty depleted though as we lose the -EPO despite the favorable coastal pattern. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not falling for this trick again. All signs show December being mostly mild however there's a window early on for some action. The cold air does look pretty depleted though as we lose the -EPO despite the favorable coastal pattern. What signs ? Alot of signs are looking good for December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What signs ? Alot of signs are looking good for December. S88 - (SS14 + 15) divided by 3 = ‘Tis the season’. As always ....... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not falling for this trick again. All signs show December being mostly mild however there's a window early on for some action. The cold air does look pretty depleted though as we lose the -EPO despite the favorable coastal pattern. I could see it being like a December 02 maybe...not necessarily snow wise but temp wise that at least is respectable and averages near normal. I don't think we will see a torch pattern or SE ridge though some forecasts have inexplicably (in my mind anyway) gone with a pronounced SER in December 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 3 hours ago, uncle W said: 2010's have three snowstorms and numerous record lows in November...the last decade that had many record lows and snowstorms was back in the 1930's... Yeah, November is our only month during the 2010’s with more record lows than highs. I used Newark since NYC would have had many more record highs if the thermometer was still on the castle instead of under the trees after the move around 1996. Newark ...daily record highs....daily record lows Jan....5...4 Feb....6...4 Mar...5...3 Apr...4....0 May..5...1 Jun...7...0 Jul...10...0 Aug...1....0 Sep...8....1 Oct...5....1 Nov..2....7 Dec..6....0 total...64...21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: @bluewave as some have alluded to, including DT in a indirect manner, when we have these Fall coastal storms it may be a good sign for the upcoming winter. My question is when there is such an event as portrayed here can it cause atmospheric eddies, or atmospheric memory that may cause other low pressure areas to drop into this area further down the road in December or even Jan. Or, on the flip side, maybe this system feeds off the one area of still warm SSTs, and that ocean fuel is used up after this event. I imagine there are multiple ways to look at this. Always appreciate your insights. Our saving grace for keeping that monster thermo gradient ever present is the Gulf Stream. It’s constantly brings in a fresh supply of ultra warm water from the western Caribbean which is out of reach of these record arctic intrusions. If we see the predominant low track switch to the coast this winter it’s game on. Based on pro forecasts I would take a blend of last years cutter/inland runner tracks and offshore tracks. Kind of a feast and famine winter with one or potentially two cold and snow periods during the heart of the winter. When exactly the stars align is impossible to predict 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 years with temperatures 24 or lower up till Nov. 14th... year......................winter temp...snowfall...lowest min... 1879..23 on 11/5.....38.5...………...22.7"...……...7 2019..23 on 11/13...……………………………………………. 1976..24 on 11/9......28.5...………..24.5"...……..-2 2017..24 on 11/11....36.2...………..40.9"...……...5 1986..22 on 11/14....34.8...………..23.1"...……...4 1920..25 on 11/13....34.9...………..18.6"...……...4 1905..20 on 11/14....36.7...………..20.0"...……...7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 19 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Beautiful sea smoke display today at Pensacola Beach. Record low of 29 at Pensacola going over the warm Gulf. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 About a -5 degree departure so far this month... Just 0.22" of precip this month with not much showing up on the 12z guidance over the next week to 10 days...We'll see if that changes in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 31 minutes ago, doncat said: About a -5 degree departure so far this month... Just 0.22" of precip this month with not much showing up on the 12z guidance over the next week to 10 days...We'll see if that changes in the coming days. Cold and dry is the big story this month with the strong -EPO suppression. It’s a flip from the warm and wet in October and the warm and dry in September. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Cold and dry is the big story this month with the strong -EPO suppression. It’s a flip from the warm and wet in October and the warm and dry in September. Warm and dry, followed by warm and wet followed by cold and dry.... Now it is cold and wet's turn. Kidding aside, pattern evolution should prove interesting to watch over the next month with no clear signal yet if I am correct with mixed forecasts out there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 EURO really has three different Atlantic coast lows over the next 10 days. Let's see if we get any piece of the action. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, November is our only month during the 2010’s with more record lows than highs. I used Newark since NYC would have had many more record highs if the thermometer was still on the castle instead of under the trees after the move around 1996. Newark ...daily record highs....daily record lows Jan....5...4 Feb....6...4 Mar...5...3 Apr...4....0 May..5...1 Jun...7...0 Jul...10...0 Aug...1....0 Sep...8....1 Oct...5....1 Nov..2....7 Dec..6....0 total...64...21 the move that happened because people were stealing their stuff? why not just put a fence around the castle.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Not a good situation for the OBX. They are in bad shape from this past hurricane season. I would expect some wash overs and damage with the that kind of fetch. Looks like the swell is directed away from us though whats keeping those winds from hitting us though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Maybe it can reinforce the North Atlantic blocking through a series of wave breaking events going into late November. Then we have to wait and see if the North Atlantic blocking can persist into December for a change. I am sure the weather forum community would like to see the December record + NAO streak that began in 2011 ease up. Based on what we've been seeing the last few years and how this season has started, it's reasonable to assume this will be a backloaded winter, with the majority of the snow in February and March. Maybe something minor in December to whet the appetite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: whats keeping those winds from hitting us though? The big H to our north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Eps, gefs look good moving forward Hopefully it stays like that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Ensembles (GEFS + EPS) are warming up to the -NAO idea. Looks like there's potential for a split flow out west and quite possibly a legit -NAO along with it as we get towards the end of the month. Good times. I can't help but see these developments as positives as we move forward. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 30 minutes ago, Dan76 said: The big H to our north. Looks like another offshore low later in the week, by then temps will be in the mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Ensembles (GEFS + EPS) are warming up to the -NAO idea. Looks like there's potential for a split flow out west and quite possibly a legit -NAO along with it as we get towards the end of the month. Good times. I can't help but see these developments as positives as we move forward. Dec -NAO (specifically late Dec -NAO) has a nice correlation to winter time predominant -NAO. Dont know about late November, I thought most of the forecasts were for a warming trend for the end of the month and the beginning of December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Dec -NAO (specifically late Dec -NAO) has a nice correlation to winter time predominant -NAO. Dont know about late November, I thought most of the forecasts were for a warming trend for the end of the month and the beginning of December? Warming trend cancel? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Warming trend cancel? December is looking good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Made it to 34° today after low of 21°... Normals for this date are 54/38. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 22 currently. With the mostly full moon and crunchy top layer of grass, feels almost like deep winter sans snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Record cold covered much of the region this morning. Records included: Allentown: 18° (tied record from 1996); Atlantic City: 21° (old record: 22°, 1995, 1996 and 2001); Baltimore: 22° (tied record set in 1911); Binghamton: 12° (old record: 14°); Bridgeport: 22° (old record: 23°, 1986); Islip: 23° (old record: 24°, 2001); New York City-JFK: 23° (old record: 25°, 1986); New York City-LGA: 24° (old record: 26°, 1986); New York City-NYC: 23° (old record: 24°, 1986); Newark: 22° (old record: 24°, 1986); Philadelphia: 23° (old record: 24°, 1996); Poughkeepsie: 15° (old record: 16°, 2013); Providence: 19° (old record: 20°, 2001); Scranton: 16° (old record: 19°, 1986); and, White Plains: 20° (old record: 23°, 1986). After a brief warmup, another push of cold air is likely for the coming weekend. However, that air mass won't be as the one that shattered records over the past two days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -10.12 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.785. The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through the 10 days. Such an outcome would increase prospects for at least some additional bouts of cold in the East during the second half of November. On November 12, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.290 (RMM). The November 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.351. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. The above data suggests that the second half of November will likely have a warm anomaly, though not necessarily a very warm one. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month, which will likely be the coldest first half of the month since 1976, has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. November 2019 will likely be somewhat warmer than November 2018 when the monthly mean temperature was 44.4°. In addition, the MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. That development reinforces the idea from the strongly negative SOI earlier this month that December will be likely be warmer than normal. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. The mean temperature for those five cases was 39.7°. The 1981-2010 normal monthly temperature for New York City is 37.5°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 81% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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