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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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People do need to realize the ecological consequences of the overuse of road salt. It is becoming a nightmare for amphibians and plants near roadways or streams affected by runoff. I cannot believe the amount of salt dumped on the roads here today, then again nothing surprises me these days. Road salt is not a benign substance for many organisms.

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8 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

People do need to realize the ecological consequences of the overuse of road salt. It is becoming a nightmare for amphibians and plants near roadways or streams affected by runoff. I cannot believe the amount of salt dumped on the roads here today, then again nothing surprises me these days. Road salt is not a benign substance for many organisms.

last november's snowstorm made a big contribution 

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46 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

People do need to realize the ecological consequences of the overuse of road salt. It is becoming a nightmare for amphibians and plants near roadways or streams affected by runoff. I cannot believe the amount of salt dumped on the roads here today, then again nothing surprises me these days. Road salt is not a benign substance for many organisms.

That’s exactly it. As a horticulturalist My thoughts go right to the trees. There are some incredible trees on the uws. They are already under pressure on a million different fronts. I can’t imagine this neighborhood (Morning Side Heights) without it’s trees. The ridiculous over use of salt is basically a death sentence if it’s not brought under control. 
And it’s also bad for public health. I could taste salt in my mouth walking up broadway as busses and trucks throw the stuff in the air.

As an aside I’m also in charge of snow removal for the campus I work on. Guess how much salt I put down today? 0

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54 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

People do need to realize the ecological consequences of the overuse of road salt. It is becoming a nightmare for amphibians and plants near roadways or streams affected by runoff. I cannot believe the amount of salt dumped on the roads here today, then again nothing surprises me these days. Road salt is not a benign substance for many organisms.

They didn't bother to treat out here. We had some flurries around noon, that was all. Yesterday was such a nice day and I was off but blew off a fishing trip. Fishing was excellent, with one boat catching and releasing a hundred striped bass. No real big fish, but that is actually a good sign, to see the smaller ones ( which are still averaging 24-26 in ). I was warned it will get bitter cold and I should try to get in a trip before the sea temps plummet, but I was tired. Early mornings get tough when you get into your 50's; you're awake but your limbs are too sore to move, sort of like the Tin Man....anyway, runoff, yeah, bad for the environment, bad for the bay. But there is less garbage and sewage than there used to be.

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Long Island Parkways were salted too. I was traveling west on the Southern State Parkway through Suffolk and Nassau and saw NYS DOT salt spreaders laying down salt. At least in Suffolk County the roads were wet and there was light snow falling. In Nassau the road was dry and they were spreading salt. I'm sure the LI Expy was also treated.

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48 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

No doubt. But big difference to being prepared and actually dumping tons of salt based on all forecasts.

A complete waste of resources. I still can't get over how everyone screwed up last November even when it was very clear that we'd get hit by a moderate snowstorm hours in advance.

And ever since then everything has been overkill. 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s exactly it. As a horticulturalist My thoughts go right to the trees. There are some incredible trees on the uws. They are already under pressure on a million different fronts. I can’t imagine this neighborhood (Morning Side Heights) without it’s trees. The ridiculous over use of salt is basically a death sentence if it’s not brought under control. 
And it’s also bad for public health. I could taste salt in my mouth walking up broadway as busses and trucks throw the stuff in the air.

As an aside I’m also in charge of snow removal for the campus I work on. Guess how much salt I put down today? 0

I got stuck behind a brine sprayer truck on Rt 100 in VT for about 20 miles a few years ago. It was one of the worst tasting experiences of my life. Even with the charcoal air filter and recirc on I could still taste it and it made my eyes tear up. I pulled over for a few minutes hoping it would either get far enough ahead or turn off but no such luck, I caught up to it again and couldn't get around it until we got to Rt 4 at Killington. Horrible... I couldn't run the heat after that because the filter was filled with salt and kept spraying it into the car so I had to race down to Rutland to the Subaru dealer to get a new one before they closed so I could keep heading home.

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A record cold air mass has now pushed into the region. Prior to its arrival, Detroit saw a November record 9.2" snowfall (November 11-12), which eclipsed the record of 9.0" set during November 15-16, 1932.

Record low maximum temperatures were set in numerous cities including: Buffalo: 25° (old record: 31°, 1983); Chicago: 17° (old record: 28°, 1894, 1940, and 1995); Detroit: 25° (old record: 31°, 1995; Indianapolis: 21° (old record: 26°, 1920); Milwaukee: 19° (old record: 23°, 1940); and, Rockford, IL: 16° (old record: 27°, 1940).

Record low temperatures were set in among the following cities: Buffalo: 20° (old record: 22°, 1894, 1911, and 1921); Cedar Rapids, IA: -6° (Old record: 5°, 1986); Chicago: 7° (old record: 8°, 1986); Des Moines: 1° (old record: 4°, 1986); Dubuque, IA: -5° (old record: 6°, 1986); Indianapolis: 8° (old record: 14°, 1911); Little Rock: 20° (old record: 22°, 1911); Madison: 4° (old record: 7°, 1911 and 1986); Rockford, IL: 3° (old record: 7°, 1986); Springfield, IL: 5° (old record: 12°, 1986 and 1995); St. Louis: 11° (old record: 12°, 1911); and, Wichita, KS: 8° (old record: 9°, 1911).

In the wake of today's Arctic frontal passage, numerous cities in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could challenge or set daily record low temperatures tomorrow morning.

Select records for November 13 are:

Allentown: 18°, 1996
Baltimore: 22°, 1911
Boston: 14°, 1883
Bridgeport: 23°, 1986
Harrisburg: 21°, 1911
Islip: 24°, 2001
New York City-JFK: 25°, 1986
New York City-LGA: 26°, 1986
New York City-NYC: 24°, 1986
Newark: 24°, 1986
Philadelphia: 24°, 1996
Poughkeepsie: 16°, 2013
Scranton: 19°, 1986
White Plains: 23°, 1986
Washington, DC: 22°, 1911

Another push of cold air is likely for the coming weekend. However, that air mass won't be as cold as the approaching one.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -9.17 today.

An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.181.

Some of the more recent guidance shows the AO remaining strongly negative through the next two weeks. Such an outcome would increase prospects for at least some additional bouts of cold in the East after mid-month.

On November 11, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.352 (RMM). The November 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.450.

The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal.

Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to generally warmer than normal conditions within a few days of November 20, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. It is likely that November 2019 will be somewhat warmer than November 2018 when the monthly mean temperature was 44.4°.

In addition, the MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. That development reinforces the idea from the strongly negative SOI earlier this month that December will be likely be warmer than normal.

Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. The mean temperature for those five cases was 39.7°. The 1981-2010 normal monthly temperature for New York City is 37.5°.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 79% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s exactly it. As a horticulturalist My thoughts go right to the trees. There are some incredible trees on the uws. They are already under pressure on a million different fronts. I can’t imagine this neighborhood (Morning Side Heights) without it’s trees. The ridiculous over use of salt is basically a death sentence if it’s not brought under control. 
And it’s also bad for public health. I could taste salt in my mouth walking up broadway as busses and trucks throw the stuff in the air.

As an aside I’m also in charge of snow removal for the campus I work on. Guess how much salt I put down today? 0

I was happy to see no salting going on in the campus I work on in the Bronx. But like you said the trees are really stressed. You almost always see the trees next to highways drop leaves earlier in the fall because of all the stress. This doesn’t help. Not to mention ponds and streams next to roadways taking all that salt. It is ridiculous. 

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s exactly it. As a horticulturalist My thoughts go right to the trees. There are some incredible trees on the uws. They are already under pressure on a million different fronts. I can’t imagine this neighborhood (Morning Side Heights) without it’s trees. The ridiculous over use of salt is basically a death sentence if it’s not brought under control. 
And it’s also bad for public health. I could taste salt in my mouth walking up broadway as busses and trucks throw the stuff in the air.

As an aside I’m also in charge of snow removal for the campus I work on. Guess how much salt I put down today? 0

They are starting to really limit road salt in the Adirondacks, mainly sand is now used

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

A complete waste of resources. I still can't get over how everyone screwed up last November even when it was very clear that we'd get hit by a moderate snowstorm hours in advance.

And ever since then everything has been overkill. 

It’s funny because where my in-laws live in the Midwest, the town actually had no money to salt last year unless it was a ‘bigger’ storm. Ever since that November storm I jokingly told him we even treat for icing in thunderstorms when it is 80 outside. Not too far from the truth these days. There was one storm last year that came in as rain and 34 but since the storm cut we spiked in temperature, yet the town was spread salt throughout. 

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8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

very little salt here in CT-a few parking lots had it down, but no roads/highways that I could see on my travels today.   

That’s good. There was a biblical amount of salt on the uws. I would have to say as much as I have ever seen, with the other contenders all being last winter. 
The other thing I forgot to mention, is that trees haven’t gone into hibernation yet (in the city) so that makes it even worse. Add the fact that we do not have any heavy rain coming and it’s going to get all over everything and sit. Plus these super early arctic outbreaks after warm October’s are adding even more stress. This crap genuinely bothers me because I know it’s preventable 

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