November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[HVSnowLover]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

One of the NAM runs showed a larger impact than the other guidance. One doesn't see such large near-term errors very often anymore.

The main miss seemed to be the intensity of the precip, the timing actually went pretty much as planned but the intensity of the front end snow thump was very underestimated.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it was well advertised by several of the models.

 

 

 

Now I remember 

Almost everyone didnt believe the colder models and they  were going with climo. 

[MJO812]

Damn Caribou is now forecasted to get 12 -18 inches. It is like another world up there.

[purduewx80]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it was well advertised by several of the models.

thanks for reminding me about #lockitin 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

thanks for reminding me about #lockitin 

No problem. The 950 mb benchmark blizzard tweet was epic.

 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

100% false. This was posted on the last page, but that jet structure is highly favorable for anafrontal banded precip. As usual it comes down to the timing of the colder and drier air.

Vehemently disagree 

[NycStormChaser]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Last year, was sort of a special case. One was dealing with a rare near-term forecasting failure. On account of the high impact of that failure, the effects of that outcome will likely continue to guide decision making for some time to come.

During the morning of November 15, moderate snow dumped more than the anticipated amounts in both Baltimore and Washington, DC where 1.7" and 1.4" snow fell respectively. Neither city had expected more than a coating of snow.

By late morning, heavy snow was moving into the Philadelphia region:

By 1 pm, Philadelphia had experienced 1/4-mile visibility and 2" of snow had fallen.

At that point, based on an absence of news reports noting significant pre-positioning of equipment and pre-treatment of roads prior to the onset of the heavy snow in the New York City area during the afternoon, either the NYC Sanitation's forecasters were largely oblivious to what was going on south of the City or the NYC Department of Sanitation was taking things too lightly. More than likely, one was dealing with a combination of those two scenarios: low forecaster and Department awareness of real-time events.

The New York Times would report a situation that implied that New York City's leadership had been governed by the early forecasts. The newspaper reported, "Leaders in New York and New Jersey came under heavy criticism, but insisted that they had been caught off guard by the ferocity of the storm after early forecasts predicted just a dusting."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/nyregion/snowstorm-total-delays-commute.html

Largely unaware of how things were evolving, the City was caught unprepared for what proved to be a moderate snowstorm (though record-breaking for the date).

Around 2 pm, heavy snow pushed into midtown Manhattan. Streets were then rapidly covered by the heavy snow. By the time the storm ended, New York City had picked up a November 15 daily record 6.4" snowfall.

In the post-mortem, the City's political leaders shifted significant blame onto commuters for clogging the streets. That happened after the heavy snow was underway. None of that takes away the reality that the City still had several hours to react to a situation that would wind up much worse than the early forecasts had its forecasters and decision makers observed what had happened in Baltimore and Washington and what was underway in Philadelphia.

 

Not to blame commuters, but most people who turned on the morning news weather reports only saw an inch or two in the forecast. If the idea of this storm over performing could have been relayed before the morning commute then 50 percent of the cars and trucks would not have been out there. 

[Brian5671]

tomorrow's problem is a lack of QPF too...NAM is down to .05 to .15  region wide...couple of hours of light rain and that's it.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

tomorrow's problem is a lack of QPF too...NAM is down to .05 to .15  region wide...couple of hours of light rain and that's it.

These Arctic anafronts usually don’t have much moisture. It either ends as light rain or a brief changeover to non-accumulating light snow near NYC and coast. But it would be nice if some spots can see their first T of the season.

[CIK62]

Just as surface T is reaching and falling below 0C, the air is drying out.        NYC is bottom center and purple line is 0C.      The 850mb T is -3C.    We are down near 30F here.

 

 

J

[BxEngine]

39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Vehemently disagree 

Because...

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

my grand daughter was born during last Novembers snowstorm...that was one hell of a day but it turned out great...

A belated congratulations, Uncle W.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/8/2019 at 8:54 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The season's coldest air to date is now in place. At 8:51 pm, the temperature reached freezing for the first time this season in Central Park. Overnight, the mercury will likely reach the upper 20s in New York City. Moderation will occur this weekend, but an even colder air mass will likely arrive later Tuesday.

Following the frontal passage that brings in that cold shot, New York City could see one or two low temperatures in the lower or middle 20s. The minimum temperature Wednesday morning could challenge the Central Park daily record low temperature of 24°, which was set in 1986.

Readings may not return to normal and then above normal across the region until around November 20 +/- a few days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was 0.00 today. The last time the SOI was 0.00 was February 4, 2016.

An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.422.

On November 7, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.731 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.576. Today's amplitude is the highest on record during November when the MJO was in Phase 5.

The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal.

Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to warmer than normal conditions, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region.

80% of the cases that saw New York City record a mean temperature below 46.0° during the first half of November went on to see 20" or more seasonal snowfall. Almost one quarter of such winters saw 40" or more snow. This data would suggest 20"-30" seasonal snowfall for the New York City area absent other variables (some of which could increase or reduce such amounts).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 75% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

　

If that happened this would be the only winter in this decade that NYC received near normal snowfall, Don!

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, doncat said:

Can't these geniuses keep these possible very minor events "in house" so to speak...instead of making these public statements, which lead to the inevitable "Weather man was wrong" comments from the public.

Most of the public doesn't think of weather people as scientists and probably doesn't even take them seriously.  The ones we see on TV seem to fit this profile.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There will be a thin line with the actual arctic front that has an enhanced area of precip. That area will have rates intense enough to get snow down to the surface even at the coast. Of course like the event I mentioned there isn’t a shot in hell of it accumulating at the coast as it will be falling with temps around 40 and warm ground. 

Didn't something like this happen last winter during the day too? I remember it- but it was later in the winter.  I think we had a snow squall warning?

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If that happened this would be the only winter in this decade that NYC received near normal snowfall, Don!

Yes, that’s true.

[LibertyBell]

Don it looks like we'll get one more arctic shot heading into the weekend, and that will be the end of the cold weather for a long time?

Any early thoughts on what Thanksgiving weekend might be like (temps/precip)?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thank goodness the arctic air goes away for a long time after Wednesday, it's too early for this stuff.

Give me some nice 50s/60s please. 

We're getting one last shot next weekend.

FYI I dont mind this arctic blast, it killed off all the weeds and bugs, which made it well worth it.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't something like this happen last winter during the day too? I remember it- but it was later in the winter.  I think we had a snow squall warning?

 

 

Yeah but that was a mid winter situation. The most epic snow squall I have ever seen in NYC. Vis down to close to zero and the snow instantly accumulated. That’s not happening this time. What I’m saying is we should see snow in the air with passage of the arctic front regardless of surface temps, it will be plenty cold aloft. The fact that we have real time verification down stream just adds to confidence 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah but that was a mid winter situation. The most epic snow squall I have ever seen in NYC. Vis down to close to zero and the snow instantly accumulated. That’s not happening this time. What I’m saying is we should see snow in the air with passage of the arctic front regardless of surface temps, it will be plenty cold aloft. The fact that we have real time verification down stream just adds to confidence 

I loved tracking that thing!  It was like tracking a summer severe tstorm threat!  Didn't we have advance warning that it was coming like a day in advance?

Is there anything you would compare this event to?  Not significant enough to compare it to March 2005 either, I would think?

 

 

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If that happened this would be the only winter in this decade that NYC received near normal snowfall, Don!

A 20’s seasonal snowfall total was more common at BNL through the 90’s. But the last one was 1998-1999.

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A 20’s seasonal snowfall total was more common at BNL through the 90’s. But the last one was 1998-1999.

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

wow that was a long time ago and during a snow drought

[purduewx80]

4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Now I remember 

Almost everyone didnt believe the colder models are were going with climo. 

climo was definitely a big part of the bust, imo. hard to go all in on a historic early-season storm like that.

the other interesting forecast aspect is that 1000-500 thicknesses were fairly high/mild due to the short-wave ridging in place. 850-700, 1000-850 and 1000-700 thicknesses were much better tools in determining snow vs mix/rain.

[uncle W]

NYC snowfall for 150 years...number of times,

65.0"+...……..1

60.0-64.9"....4

55.0-59.9"....3

50.0-54.9"..10

45.0-49.9"....7

40.0-44.9"..11

35.0-39.9"....8

30.0-34.9"..17

25.0-29.9"..22

20.0-24.9"..20

15.0-19.9"..17

10.0-14.9"..21

05.0-09.9"....6

02.8-04.9"....3

[Rtd208]

 

[donsutherland1]

As of 4 pm local time, Chicago had picked up 3.4" snow, which broke the November 11 record of 1.9" from 1995. Detroit had received 6.0" snow, which broke the daily record of 4.1", which was set in 1984. Only four prior storms saw 6.0" or more daily snowfall in Detroit in November.

The unseasonably cold air mass responsible for the daily record snowfall in Chicago and Detroit will push into the region tomorrow accompanied by rain showers that could end as a brief period of wet snow or flurries even in the New York City and Newark areas. However, the probability that New York City would receive measurable snow is low.

In fact, all 6 prior cases of 1.0" or more snow in Detroit on November 11 saw no measurable snow in New York City on November 11 or November 12. Thus, the historical data and guidance are well-aligned.

Following the frontal passage, numerous cities in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could challenge or set daily record low temperatures on Wednesday morning.

Select records for November 13 are:

Allentown: 18°, 1996
Baltimore: 22°, 1911
Boston: 14°, 1883
Bridgeport: 23°, 1986
Harrisburg: 21°, 1911
Islip: 24°, 2001
New York City-JFK: 25°, 1986
New York City-LGA: 26°, 1986
New York City-NYC: 24°, 1986
Newark: 24°, 1986
Philadelphia: 24°, 1996
Poughkeepsie: 16°, 2013
Scranton: 19°, 1986
White Plains: 23°, 1986
Washington, DC: 22°, 1911

Another push of cold air is likely for the coming weekend. However, that air mass won't be as cold as the approaching one.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -9.61 today.

An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.668.

Some of the more recent guidance shows the AO remaining strongly negative through the next two weeks. Such an outcome would increase prospects for at least some additional bouts of cold in the East after mid-month.

On November 10, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.453 (RMM). The November 9-adjusted amplitude was 2.570.

The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal.

Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to generally warmer than normal conditions within a few days of November 20, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. It is likely that November 2019 will be somewhat warmer than November 2018 when the monthly mean temperature was 44.4°.

In addition, the MJO has now spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. That development reinforces the idea from the strongly negative SOI earlier this month that December will be likely be warmer than normal.

Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. The mean temperature for those five cases was 39.7°. The 1981-2010 normal monthly temperature for New York City is 37.5°.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 76% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

[MJO812]

Nam barely has any rain for the NYC area

 

Hopefully it's wrong but this is looking like a typical arctic  front

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam barely has any rain for the NYC area

 

Hopefully it's wrong but this is looking like a typical arctic  front

Precip looks unimpressive on radar and models, seems like just a regular cold front at this point.  On the plus side there won't be much rain.

[JustinRP37]

20 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

This seems much more realistic given what the long range has been showing and the observed patterns. I like when people do not hype just for clicks. Looks like a 'short' main event time centered roughly on the three-four weeks of mid/late January to early February. I hope they are a bit off with the snowfall, but I myself am thinking slightly below average to just average for snowfall.

Takeaway summary from the article:

"Our current expectation is for temperatures to average near or slightly above average in NYC, with near or slightly above average snowfall.The worst of the Winter will likely be observed from mid to late January into early February." 

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

Latest HRRR says what snow? Rain till the end in NYC. Delays the first snow. Bummer surface is boiling. I miss living in Brooklyn but I know winter is not going to be like it was the past ten years, every year. U get used to it sadly. I am used to having lots of snow living in NYC 2010-2018. Moved upstate and am cashing in Right now in northern Ny.