doncat Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 29 minutes ago, weathermedic said: It's official. NYC Sanitation has issued a "snow alert" for tomorrow for a coating of snow DSNY Issues ‘Snow Alert’ for Tuesday, November 12, 2019 at 10 a.m. The New York City Department of Sanitation has issued a Snow Alert for Tuesday, November 12, 2019 at 10 a.m. In a snow alert, DSNY coordinates with NYC Emergency Management and the Department of Transportation on snow clearing protocol in accordance with each agency’s written snow plan. All relevant city agencies have been notified of the snow alert. DSNY will continue to monitor forecasts and will provide updates as the snow event approaches. Can't these geniuses keep these possible very minor events "in house" so to speak...instead of making these public statements, which lead to the inevitable "Weather man was wrong" comments from the public. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, doncat said: Can't these geniuses keep these possible very minor events "in house" so to speak...instead of making these public statements, which lead to the inevitable "Weather man was wrong" comments from the public. they probably are doing it to get some overtime for the boys...they might even use some salt for no good reason...I've seen that before... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanman 06 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, uncle W said: they probably are doing it to get some overtime for the boys...they might even use some salt for no good reason...I've seen that before... Yes they intend to overreact and panic !! I work for DSNY. And yes they make us spread salt for No reason and even in the rain!! Anyway good for us to get some overtime!!! $$$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 You can see the arctic front clearly on radar over the Upper Midwest if you draw a line from Springfield to South Bend to just north of Detroit. You can also see The Heavy band of snow with it. my experience has been when these Arctic fronts come in you get a heavy burst of snow which would be hard to accumulate during the daylight in November with marginal temperatures but we should see snow in the air for most areas tomorrow. that would be my bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, uncle W said: they probably are doing it to get some overtime for the boys...they might even use some salt for no good reason...I've seen that before... If only they used something less corrosive to melt the snow. That stuff's terrible for car frames. And its a total pain to rinse that stuff off when washing your car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, binbisso said: You can see the arctic front clearly on radar over the Upper Midwest if you draw a line from Springfield to South Bend to just north of Detroit. You can also see The Heavy band of snow with it. my experience has been when these Arctic fronts come in you get a heavy burst of snow which would be hard to accumulate during the daylight in November with marginal temperatures but we should see snow in the air for most areas tomorrow. that would be my bet The drop of temp will be the main story tomorrow. It is going to feel like winter with the cold and snow flakes in the air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Sanman 06 said: Yes they intend to overreact and panic !! I work for DSNY. And yes they make us spread salt for No reason and even in the rain!! Anyway good for us to get some overtime!!! $$$ all city agencies want to spend all the money alottocated to them because if they don't the city will cut their budget next year... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/9/2019 at 7:47 AM, bluewave said: The low of 27 this morning in NYC is 2nd earliest on record behind 1879. Tied the record low of 29 yesterday. All the more impressive following the latest mid 90’s around NYC in early October. A few days earlier than the record cold in 2017. That record cold followed the warmest October on record around the area at +7.2. So the record warmth in October followed by record cold in November continues. 11/8 29 in 2019 29 in 1886 30 in 1992+ 11/9 24 in 1976 27 in 2019 29 in 2003+ Earliest 27 degree temperature or lower in NYC Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1879 04-06 (1879) 26 11-04 (1879) 25 211 1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210 1914 04-04 (1914) 27 11-10 (1914) 27 219 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 Wow I thought we missed the chance at a record since we didn't get to 25. On Wednesday what are the chances that our high will be 32 or less and the low will be 19 or less? Would either be the earliest ever? I wonder if we'll follow the pattern of 2017-18 and last year of having a snowy February or March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Some people are weenies and some just hate the snow I get it .What I never will get (weather guys n girls should know better) is that some people like to talk talk in absolutes about weather and predictions but all I know is that is NEVER a good idea and for instance last year our first snow storm had the temps drop real FAST and everybody and their mother had terrible commutes home and the usual 30 minute commute took people 4 hours NOT ONE PERSON on this board or anywhere else anywhere called that correctly , not the haters or the weenies. I am not saying tomorrow is any where near the setup we had last year as it is NOT but to talk in absolutes is just IMO foolish. I am looking at the models and everyone including L.I could get mood flakes tomorrow and others could see a lite accumulation but that's just my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 15 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: If only they used something less corrosive to melt the snow. That stuff's terrible for car frames. And its a total pain to rinse that stuff off when washing your car Why dont they just use sand? It's much more ecofriendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There was a very similar event back in the late 90s. Mid November powerful cold front that brought a brief but heavy burst of snow. Despite the crashing temps and heavy snow, it did not stick at all do to warm ground temps. Thats exactly what I would go for with this event. I dont think you mean November 1995 do you? That event was a nice surprise! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Why dont they just use sand? It's much more ecofriendly. Here is CT sand is banned. Clogs up sewers. The state uses mag chloride and salt. Individual towns can do what they want but most have gone with the ban 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Why dont they just use sand? It's much more ecofriendly. Just get one of these. Problem solved. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Heavy burst of snow is not likely, most won’t even see the possible change to snow. There is nothing here that supports an anafront 100% false. This was posted on the last page, but that jet structure is highly favorable for anafrontal banded precip. As usual it comes down to the timing of the colder and drier air. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Thank goodness the arctic air goes away for a long time after Wednesday, it's too early for this stuff. Give me some nice 50s/60s please. 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Thank goodness the arctic air goes away for a long time after Wednesday, it's too early for this stuff. Give me some nice 50s/60s please. We've got 60's right now. I'ts 68 here. Beautiful out. Wish there were some car shows today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, doncat said: Can't these geniuses keep these possible very minor events "in house" so to speak...instead of making these public statements, which lead to the inevitable "Weather man was wrong" comments from the public. Last year, was sort of a special case. One was dealing with a rare near-term forecasting failure. On account of the high impact of that failure, the effects of that outcome will likely continue to guide decision making for some time to come. During the morning of November 15, moderate snow dumped more than the anticipated amounts in both Baltimore and Washington, DC where 1.7" and 1.4" snow fell respectively. Neither city had expected more than a coating of snow. By late morning, heavy snow was moving into the Philadelphia region: By 1 pm, Philadelphia had experienced 1/4-mile visibility and 2" of snow had fallen. At that point, based on an absence of news reports noting significant pre-positioning of equipment and pre-treatment of roads prior to the onset of the heavy snow in the New York City area during the afternoon, either the NYC Sanitation's forecasters were largely oblivious to what was going on south of the City or the NYC Department of Sanitation was taking things too lightly. More than likely, one was dealing with a combination of those two scenarios: low forecaster and Department awareness of real-time events. The New York Times would report a situation that implied that New York City's leadership had been governed by the early forecasts. The newspaper reported, "Leaders in New York and New Jersey came under heavy criticism, but insisted that they had been caught off guard by the ferocity of the storm after early forecasts predicted just a dusting." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/nyregion/snowstorm-total-delays-commute.html Largely unaware of how things were evolving, the City was caught unprepared for what proved to be a moderate snowstorm (though record-breaking for the date). Around 2 pm, heavy snow pushed into midtown Manhattan. Streets were then rapidly covered by the heavy snow. By the time the storm ended, New York City had picked up a November 15 daily record 6.4" snowfall. In the post-mortem, the City's political leaders shifted significant blame onto commuters for clogging the streets. That happened after the heavy snow was underway. None of that takes away the reality that the City still had several hours to react to a situation that would wind up much worse than the early forecasts had its forecasters and decision makers observed what had happened in Baltimore and Washington and what was underway in Philadelphia. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Thank goodness the arctic air goes away for a long time after Wednesday, it's too early for this stuff. Give me some nice 50s/60s please. After Wednesday? Looks well below normal this coming weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I really see no problem here. A “snow alert” for a coating of snow isn’t overtly embellishing the forecast. They’re covering their bases, letting the public be aware snow is in the forecast saying a coating could happen. If it doesn’t happen no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Last year, was sort of a special case. One was dealing with a rare near-term forecasting failure. On account of the high impact of that failure, the effects of that outcome will likely continue to guide decision making for some time to come. During the morning of November 15, moderate snow dumped more than the anticipated amounts in both Baltimore and Washington, DC where 1.7" and 1.4" snow fell respectively. Neither city had expected more than a coating of snow. By late morning, heavy snow was moving into the Philadelphia region: By 1 pm, Philadelphia had experienced 1/4-mile visibility and 2" of snow had fallen. At that point, based on an absence of news reports noting significant pre-positioning of equipment and pre-treatment of roads prior to the onset of the heavy snow in the New York City area during the afternoon, either the NYC Sanitation's forecasters were largely oblivious to what was going on south of the City or the NYC Department of Sanitation was taking things too lightly. More than likely, one was dealing with a combination of those two scenarios: low forecaster and Department awareness of real-time events. The New York Times would report a situation that implied that New York City's leadership had been governed by the early forecasts. The newspaper reported, "Leaders in New York and New Jersey came under heavy criticism, but insisted that they had been caught off guard by the ferocity of the storm after early forecasts predicted just a dusting." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/nyregion/snowstorm-total-delays-commute.html Largely unaware of how things were evolving, the City was caught unprepared for what proved to be a moderate snowstorm (though record-breaking for the date). Around 2 pm, heavy snow pushed into midtown Manhattan. Streets were then rapidly covered by the heavy snow. By the time the storm ended, New York City had picked up a November 15 daily record 6.4" snowfall. In the post-mortem, the City's political leaders shifted significant blame onto commuters for clogging the streets. That happened after the heavy snow was underway. None of that takes away the reality that the City still had several hours to react to a situation that would wind up much worse than the early forecasts had its forecasters and decision makers observed what had happened in Baltimore and Washington and what was underway in Philadelphia. Took me 2 hours to get home when it usually takes 25 mins. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Took me 2 hours to get home when it usually takes 25 mins. I have some colleagues at work who didn't get home until after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Thank goodness the arctic air goes away for a long time after Wednesday, it's too early for this stuff. Give me some nice 50s/60s please. I actually agree at this point, Low 20s is too cold for November especially without any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Last year, was sort of a special case. One was dealing with a rare near-term forecasting failure. On account of the high impact of that failure, the effects of that outcome will likely continue to guide decision making for some time to come. During the morning of November 15, moderate snow dumped more than the anticipated amounts in both Baltimore and Washington, DC where 1.7" and 1.4" snow fell respectively. Neither city had expected more than a coating of snow. By late morning, heavy snow was moving into the Philadelphia region: By 1 pm, Philadelphia had experienced 1/4-mile visibility and 2" of snow had fallen. At that point, based on an absence of news reports noting significant pre-positioning of equipment and pre-treatment of roads prior to the onset of the heavy snow in the New York City area during the afternoon, either the NYC Sanitation's forecasters were largely oblivious to what was going on south of the City or the NYC Department of Sanitation was taking things too lightly. More than likely, one was dealing with a combination of those two scenarios: low forecaster and Department awareness of real-time events. The New York Times would report a situation that implied that New York City's leadership had been governed by the early forecasts. The newspaper reported, "Leaders in New York and New Jersey came under heavy criticism, but insisted that they had been caught off guard by the ferocity of the storm after early forecasts predicted just a dusting." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/nyregion/snowstorm-total-delays-commute.html Largely unaware of how things were evolving, the City was caught unprepared for what proved to be a moderate snowstorm (though record-breaking for the date). Around 2 pm, heavy snow pushed into midtown Manhattan. Streets were then rapidly covered by the heavy snow. By the time the storm ended, New York City had picked up a November 15 daily record 6.4" snowfall. In the post-mortem, the City's political leaders shifted significant blame onto commuters for clogging the streets. That happened after the heavy snow was underway. None of that takes away the reality that the City still had several hours to react to a situation that would wind up much worse than the early forecasts had its forecasters and decision makers observed what had happened in Baltimore and Washington and what was underway in Philadelphia. Agree you could tell by that morning that one was going to overperform. While it was a surprise there were definitely signals before the snow came in that it would overperform and the NWS even raised expected totals before the snow arrived 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I have some colleagues at work who didn't get home until after midnight. This storm caught everyone off guard. I'm not sure if any model got it right ( maybe the Nam ?) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: This storm caught everyone off guard. I'm not sure if any model got it right ( maybe the Nam ?) there was also a belief that it was too early for a storm of that magnitude. CT was also completely unprepared 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: there was also a belief that it was too early for a storm of that magnitude. CT was also completely unprepared There was a lot of the old "On colder surfaces" line thrown around. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This storm caught everyone off guard. I'm not sure if any model got it right ( maybe the Nam ?) One of the NAM runs showed a larger impact than the other guidance. One doesn't see such large near-term errors very often anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This storm caught everyone off guard. I'm not sure if any model got it right ( maybe the Nam ?) The new GFS actually wasn't half bad, thanks to its cold bias. Various runs of the ECMWF also did well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Just now, purduewx80 said: The new GFS actually wasn't half bad, thanks to its cold bias. Various runs of the ECMWF also did well. Yeah, it was well advertised by several of the models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 my grand daughter was born during last Novembers snowstorm...that was one hell of a day but it turned out great... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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