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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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29 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

It's official. NYC Sanitation has issued a "snow alert" for tomorrow for a coating of snow :arrowhead:

DSNY Issues ‘Snow Alert’ for Tuesday, November 12, 2019 at 10 a.m.

The New York City Department of Sanitation has issued a Snow Alert for Tuesday, November 12, 2019 at 10 a.m.

In a snow alert, DSNY coordinates with NYC Emergency Management and the Department of Transportation on snow clearing protocol in accordance with each agency’s written snow plan. All relevant city agencies have been notified of the snow alert. DSNY will continue to monitor forecasts and will provide updates as the snow event approaches.

Can't these geniuses keep these possible very minor events "in house" so to speak...instead of making these public statements, which lead to the inevitable "Weather man was wrong" comments from the public.

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12 minutes ago, doncat said:

Can't these geniuses keep these possible very minor events "in house" so to speak...instead of making these public statements, which lead to the inevitable "Weather man was wrong" comments from the public.

they probably are doing it to get some overtime for the boys...they might even use some salt for no good reason...I've seen that before...

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9 minutes ago, uncle W said:

they probably are doing it to get some overtime for the boys...they might even use some salt for no good reason...I've seen that before...

Yes they intend to overreact and panic !! I work for DSNY.  And yes they make us spread salt for  No reason and even in the rain!! Anyway good for us to get some overtime!!! $$$

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You can see the arctic front clearly on radar over the Upper Midwest if you draw a line from Springfield to South Bend to just north of Detroit. You can also see The Heavy band of snow with it. my experience has been when these Arctic fronts come in you get a heavy burst of snow which would be hard to accumulate during the daylight in November with marginal temperatures but we should see snow in the air for most areas tomorrow. that would be my bet

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14 minutes ago, uncle W said:

they probably are doing it to get some overtime for the boys...they might even use some salt for no good reason...I've seen that before...

If only they used something less corrosive to melt the snow. That stuff's terrible for car frames. And its a total pain to rinse that stuff off when washing your car

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4 minutes ago, binbisso said:

You can see the arctic front clearly on radar over the Upper Midwest if you draw a line from Springfield to South Bend to just north of Detroit. You can also see The Heavy band of snow with it. my experience has been when these Arctic fronts come in you get a heavy burst of snow which would be hard to accumulate during the daylight in November with marginal temperatures but we should see snow in the air for most areas tomorrow. that would be my bet

The drop of temp will be the main story tomorrow. It is going to feel like winter with the cold and snow flakes in the air.

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6 minutes ago, Sanman 06 said:

Yes they intend to overreact and panic !! I work for DSNY.  And yes they make us spread salt for  No reason and even in the rain!! Anyway good for us to get some overtime!!! $$$

all city agencies want to spend all the money alottocated to them because if they don't the city will cut their budget next year...

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On 11/9/2019 at 7:47 AM, bluewave said:

The low of 27 this morning in NYC is 2nd earliest on record behind 1879. Tied the record low of 29 yesterday. All the more impressive following the latest mid 90’s around NYC in early October. A few days earlier than the record cold in 2017. That record cold followed the warmest October on record around the area at +7.2. So the record warmth in October followed by record cold in November continues. 

11/8 29 in 2019 29 in 1886 30 in 1992+
11/9 24 in 1976 27 in 2019 29 in 2003+

Earliest 27 degree temperature or lower in NYC

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
1879 04-06 (1879) 26 11-04 (1879) 25 211
1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210
1914 04-04 (1914) 27 11-10 (1914) 27 219
2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231

 

 

Wow I thought we missed the chance at a record since we didn't get to 25.

On Wednesday what are the chances that our high will be 32 or less and the low will be 19 or less?  Would either be the earliest ever?

I wonder if we'll follow the pattern of 2017-18 and last year of having a snowy February or March?

 

 

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Some people are weenies and some just hate the snow I get it .What I never will get (weather guys n girls should know better) is that some people like to talk talk in absolutes about weather and predictions but all I know is that is NEVER a good idea and for instance last year our first snow storm had the temps drop real FAST and everybody and their mother had terrible commutes home and the usual 30 minute commute took people 4 hours NOT ONE PERSON on this board or anywhere else anywhere called that correctly , not the haters or the weenies. I am not saying tomorrow is any where near the setup we had last year as it is NOT but to talk in absolutes is just IMO foolish. I am looking at the models and everyone including L.I could get mood flakes tomorrow and others could see a lite accumulation but that's just my opinion.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There was a very similar event back in the late 90s. Mid November powerful cold front that brought a brief but heavy burst of snow. Despite the crashing temps and heavy snow, it did not stick at all do to warm ground temps.

Thats exactly what I would go for with this event. 

I dont think you mean November 1995 do you?  That event was a nice surprise!

 

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Heavy burst of snow is not likely, most won’t even see the possible change to snow.  There is nothing here that supports an anafront

100% false. This was posted on the last page, but that jet structure is highly favorable for anafrontal banded precip. As usual it comes down to the timing of the colder and drier air.

image.thumb.png.b0a42efefa6ae8e59fddc5255aa22912.png

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Can't these geniuses keep these possible very minor events "in house" so to speak...instead of making these public statements, which lead to the inevitable "Weather man was wrong" comments from the public.

Last year, was sort of a special case. One was dealing with a rare near-term forecasting failure. On account of the high impact of that failure, the effects of that outcome will likely continue to guide decision making for some time to come.

During the morning of November 15, moderate snow dumped more than the anticipated amounts in both Baltimore and Washington, DC where 1.7" and 1.4" snow fell respectively. Neither city had expected more than a coating of snow.

By late morning, heavy snow was moving into the Philadelphia region:

Radar11152018.jpg

By 1 pm, Philadelphia had experienced 1/4-mile visibility and 2" of snow had fallen.

At that point, based on an absence of news reports noting significant pre-positioning of equipment and pre-treatment of roads prior to the onset of the heavy snow in the New York City area during the afternoon, either the NYC Sanitation's forecasters were largely oblivious to what was going on south of the City or the NYC Department of Sanitation was taking things too lightly. More than likely, one was dealing with a combination of those two scenarios: low forecaster and Department awareness of real-time events.

The New York Times would report a situation that implied that New York City's leadership had been governed by the early forecasts. The newspaper reported, "Leaders in New York and New Jersey came under heavy criticism, but insisted that they had been caught off guard by the ferocity of the storm after early forecasts predicted just a dusting."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/nyregion/snowstorm-total-delays-commute.html

Largely unaware of how things were evolving, the City was caught unprepared for what proved to be a moderate snowstorm (though record-breaking for the date).

Around 2 pm, heavy snow pushed into midtown Manhattan. Streets were then rapidly covered by the heavy snow. By the time the storm ended, New York City had picked up a November 15 daily record 6.4" snowfall.

In the post-mortem, the City's political leaders shifted significant blame onto commuters for clogging the streets. That happened after the heavy snow was underway. None of that takes away the reality that the City still had several hours to react to a situation that would wind up much worse than the early forecasts had its forecasters and decision makers observed what had happened in Baltimore and Washington and what was underway in Philadelphia.

 

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Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I really see no problem here. A “snow alert” for a coating of snow isn’t overtly embellishing the forecast. They’re covering their bases, letting the public be aware snow is in the forecast saying a coating could happen. If it doesn’t happen no big deal. 

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42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Last year, was sort of a special case. One was dealing with a rare near-term forecasting failure. On account of the high impact of that failure, the effects of that outcome will likely continue to guide decision making for some time to come.

During the morning of November 15, moderate snow dumped more than the anticipated amounts in both Baltimore and Washington, DC where 1.7" and 1.4" snow fell respectively. Neither city had expected more than a coating of snow.

By late morning, heavy snow was moving into the Philadelphia region:

Radar11152018.jpg

By 1 pm, Philadelphia had experienced 1/4-mile visibility and 2" of snow had fallen.

At that point, based on an absence of news reports noting significant pre-positioning of equipment and pre-treatment of roads prior to the onset of the heavy snow in the New York City area during the afternoon, either the NYC Sanitation's forecasters were largely oblivious to what was going on south of the City or the NYC Department of Sanitation was taking things too lightly. More than likely, one was dealing with a combination of those two scenarios: low forecaster and Department awareness of real-time events.

The New York Times would report a situation that implied that New York City's leadership had been governed by the early forecasts. The newspaper reported, "Leaders in New York and New Jersey came under heavy criticism, but insisted that they had been caught off guard by the ferocity of the storm after early forecasts predicted just a dusting."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/nyregion/snowstorm-total-delays-commute.html

Largely unaware of how things were evolving, the City was caught unprepared for what proved to be a moderate snowstorm (though record-breaking for the date).

Around 2 pm, heavy snow pushed into midtown Manhattan. Streets were then rapidly covered by the heavy snow. By the time the storm ended, New York City had picked up a November 15 daily record 6.4" snowfall.

In the post-mortem, the City's political leaders shifted significant blame onto commuters for clogging the streets. That happened after the heavy snow was underway. None of that takes away the reality that the City still had several hours to react to a situation that would wind up much worse than the early forecasts had its forecasters and decision makers observed what had happened in Baltimore and Washington and what was underway in Philadelphia.

 

Took me 2 hours to get home when it usually takes 25 mins.

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49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Last year, was sort of a special case. One was dealing with a rare near-term forecasting failure. On account of the high impact of that failure, the effects of that outcome will likely continue to guide decision making for some time to come.

During the morning of November 15, moderate snow dumped more than the anticipated amounts in both Baltimore and Washington, DC where 1.7" and 1.4" snow fell respectively. Neither city had expected more than a coating of snow.

By late morning, heavy snow was moving into the Philadelphia region:

Radar11152018.jpg

By 1 pm, Philadelphia had experienced 1/4-mile visibility and 2" of snow had fallen.

At that point, based on an absence of news reports noting significant pre-positioning of equipment and pre-treatment of roads prior to the onset of the heavy snow in the New York City area during the afternoon, either the NYC Sanitation's forecasters were largely oblivious to what was going on south of the City or the NYC Department of Sanitation was taking things too lightly. More than likely, one was dealing with a combination of those two scenarios: low forecaster and Department awareness of real-time events.

The New York Times would report a situation that implied that New York City's leadership had been governed by the early forecasts. The newspaper reported, "Leaders in New York and New Jersey came under heavy criticism, but insisted that they had been caught off guard by the ferocity of the storm after early forecasts predicted just a dusting."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/nyregion/snowstorm-total-delays-commute.html

Largely unaware of how things were evolving, the City was caught unprepared for what proved to be a moderate snowstorm (though record-breaking for the date).

Around 2 pm, heavy snow pushed into midtown Manhattan. Streets were then rapidly covered by the heavy snow. By the time the storm ended, New York City had picked up a November 15 daily record 6.4" snowfall.

In the post-mortem, the City's political leaders shifted significant blame onto commuters for clogging the streets. That happened after the heavy snow was underway. None of that takes away the reality that the City still had several hours to react to a situation that would wind up much worse than the early forecasts had its forecasters and decision makers observed what had happened in Baltimore and Washington and what was underway in Philadelphia.

 

Agree you could tell by that morning that one was going to overperform. While it was a surprise there were definitely signals before the snow came in that it would overperform and the NWS even raised expected totals before the snow arrived

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