November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[David-LI]

23 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

TEB reporting flurries now, anyone else seeing them?

Definitely possible as radar shows lake effect snow clouds to our northwest

[495weatherguy]

30 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

TEB reporting flurries now, anyone else seeing them?

A few flurries on Long Island.  Melville to be exact.  

[Tatamy]

On 11/3/2019 at 1:37 PM, NYCweatherNOW said:

 

 

23 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Definitely possible as radar shows lake effect snow clouds to our northwest

Have been seeing our 1st flurries of the season this morning.  There are some light snow showers scattered around in eastern PA and the NW suburbs of NYC.

[David-LI]

Channel 4 has a really great high frequency radar that makes it easier to spot where flurries might be falling.

 

Channel 4 High Frequency S Band weather radar

[psv88]

yup, flurries on the island

[NorthShoreWx]

First snow of the season here atm.  Just a few pathetic flakes making it to the ground, but the first is the first.

[uncle W]

cold Novembers followed by warmer Decembers?...looking at the last 20 cold Novembers the chances for that happening are 65%...below are the 20 coldest Novembers since 1950.....warm Decembers in red...

year.....Nov...Dec....

1959...45.8...38.4

1962...43.2...31.5

1967...42.5...38.2

1971...45.1...40.8

1972...44.4...38.5

1976...41.7...29.9

1980...44.6...32.5

1986...45.7...39.0

1989...45.7...25.9

1995...43.6...32.4

1996...43.0...41.3

1997...44.5...38.3

2000...45.3...31.1

2002...46.0...36.0

2007...45.4...37.0

2008...45.8...38.1

2012...43.9...41.5

2013...45.3...38.5

2014...45.3...40.5

2018...44.4...40.1

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, uncle W said:

cold Novembers followed by warmer Decembers?...looking at the last 20 cold Novembers the chances for that happening are 65%...below are the 20 coldest Novembers since 1950.....warm Decembers in red...

Years that remained cold for both months finished in the top 20 coldest winter average temperatures since 1950. The forum really enjoyed the 02-03 and 95-96 snowfall outcomes. They would have liked 00-01 more if some of the March snowstorm forecasts verified.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1976-1977	28.4	0
2	1962-1963	29.9	0
3	1977-1978	30.3	0
4	1969-1970	30.5	0
5	1958-1959	30.8	0
6	1993-1994	31.1	0
7	2002-2003	31.2	0
-	1967-1968	31.2	0
8	2014-2015	31.4	0
9	1960-1961	31.7	0
10	1970-1971	32.1	0
11	1995-1996	32.2	0
12	2003-2004	32.4	0
13	1981-1982	32.6	0
-	1980-1981	32.6	0
-	1978-1979	32.6	0
14	2010-2011	32.8	0
-	1955-1956	32.8	0
15	2013-2014	32.9	0
-	1968-1969	32.9	0
16	1963-1964	33.2	0
-	1957-1958	33.2	0
17	1964-1965	33.3	0
-	1961-1962	33.3	0
18	1985-1986	33.4	0
19	2000-2001	33.5	0

[Brasiluvsnow]

Tuesday = GFS has the low hugging the coast but ---> the interior sections ??????  Or does the low track farther off the coast ?

[Brian5671]

dewpoint down to 10 here.  Going to be cold night!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Years that remained cold for both months finished in the top 20 coldest winter average temperatures since 1950. The forum really enjoyed the 02-03 and 95-96 snowfall outcomes. They would have liked 00-01 more if some of the March snowstorm forecasts verified.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1976-1977	28.4	0
2	1962-1963	29.9	0
3	1977-1978	30.3	0
4	1969-1970	30.5	0
5	1958-1959	30.8	0
6	1993-1994	31.1	0
7	2002-2003	31.2	0
-	1967-1968	31.2	0
8	2014-2015	31.4	0
9	1960-1961	31.7	0
10	1970-1971	32.1	0
11	1995-1996	32.2	0
12	2003-2004	32.4	0
13	1981-1982	32.6	0
-	1980-1981	32.6	0
-	1978-1979	32.6	0
14	2010-2011	32.8	0
-	1955-1956	32.8	0
15	2013-2014	32.9	0
-	1968-1969	32.9	0
16	1963-1964	33.2	0
-	1957-1958	33.2	0
17	1964-1965	33.3	0
-	1961-1962	33.3	0
18	1985-1986	33.4	0
19	2000-2001	33.5	0

This is exactly what I found back in the early 90s.  Cold Novembers result in winters that are either much delayed or denied (the majority of the time.)

 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is exactly what I found back in the early 90s.  Cold Novembers result in winters that are either much delayed or denied (the majority of the time.)

 

The key to getting a cold and snowy December with the 2002, 2000, and 1995 cases was a -NAO.

[weathermedic]

Guess the Euro for next week is nada?

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Guess the Euro for next week is nada?

looks like a cold front like last night....very little precip

[psv88]

feels horrible outside

[FPizz]

16 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC decade snowfall averages...

decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total

1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9
1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8
1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8
1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2
1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6
1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1
1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7
1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6
1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7
1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7
1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3
1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8
1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8
2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5
2010-11 to 2018-19......0.3.....1.3.....4.6....14.1......9.0.....6.6......0.6..…36.5

1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3
1980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4

For the 80s, did NYC just miss out on some storms?  I found this for Rutgers, and it looks like they actually averaged slightly more in the 80s than the 90s. For my own measurements (aided by RU until 1987), I had the 80s at 27.89 vs 27.02 for the 90s, so practically a wash.

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Years that remained cold for both months finished in the top 20 coldest winter average temperatures since 1950. The forum really enjoyed the 02-03 and 95-96 snowfall outcomes. They would have liked 00-01 more if some of the March snowstorm forecasts verified.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1976-1977	28.4	0
2	1962-1963	29.9	0
3	1977-1978	30.3	0
4	1969-1970	30.5	0
5	1958-1959	30.8	0
6	1993-1994	31.1	0
7	2002-2003	31.2	0
-	1967-1968	31.2	0
8	2014-2015	31.4	0
9	1960-1961	31.7	0
10	1970-1971	32.1	0
11	1995-1996	32.2	0
12	2003-2004	32.4	0
13	1981-1982	32.6	0
-	1980-1981	32.6	0
-	1978-1979	32.6	0
14	2010-2011	32.8	0
-	1955-1956	32.8	0
15	2013-2014	32.9	0
-	1968-1969	32.9	0
16	1963-1964	33.2	0
-	1957-1958	33.2	0
17	1964-1965	33.3	0
-	1961-1962	33.3	0
18	1985-1986	33.4	0
19	2000-2001	33.5	0

I missed 1989...the only cold Nov-Dec that had a mild winter...

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, psv88 said:

feels horrible outside

static cling dry.  dewpoints near 8-10 degrees lol

[uncle W]

13 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

For the 80s, did NYC just miss out on some storms?  I found this for Rutgers, and it looks like they actually averaged slightly more in the 80s than the 90s. For my own measurements (aided by RU until 1987), I had the 80s at 27.89 vs 27.02 for the 90s, so practically a wash.

the 1980's were very disappointing for snow lovers...the only big storms 9" or more came in Feb. 1983 and April 1982...the difference between the 1980's and 1990's were 1993-94 and 1995-96 had historic winters...

[MJO812]

39 right  now

I love this weather

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

cold Novembers followed by warmer Decembers?...looking at the last 20 cold Novembers the chances for that happening are 65%...below are the 20 coldest Novembers since 1950.....warm Decembers in red...

year.....Nov...Dec....

1959...45.8...38.4

1962...43.2...31.5

1967...42.5...38.2

1971...45.1...40.8

1972...44.4...38.5

1976...41.7...29.9

1980...44.6...32.5

1986...45.7...39.0

1989...45.7...25.9

1995...43.6...32.4

1996...43.0...41.3

1997...44.5...38.3

2000...45.3...31.1

2002...46.0...36.0

2007...45.4...37.0

2008...45.8...38.1

2012...43.9...41.5

2013...45.3...38.5

2014...45.3...40.5

2018...44.4...40.1

Its pretty strange.  You wonder if May being warm or cold correlates the same way to June-Aug reversing.  I definitely know a few years like 1996 and 2002 saw May be the complete opposite of summer which ended up pretty cold in both cases though 2002 had a pretty meaningless late comeback in the last 2 weeks of August which skewed it

[Cfa]

40 here, high was 43, today was an instant reminder of how much I hate winter/cold.

[bluewave]

This is probably the closest the first fall freeze has been to the last mid 90’s around NYC. The shortest reversal of this pattern I could find for the spring was April 1976.

Newark

2019-10-02

96

67

81.5

19.8

NYC

1976-04-12

43

25

34.0

-17.9

1976-04-18

96

70

83.0

29.0

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The key to getting a cold and snowy December with the 2002, 2000, and 1995 cases was a -NAO.

Looks like we're in a period where that will be difficult to do, because the timing between the Arctic shots and storms is bad- another reminder of the 80s.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is probably the closest the first fall freeze has been to the last mid 90’s around NYC. The shortest reversal of this pattern I could find for the spring was April 1976.

Newark

2019-10-02

96

67

81.5

19.8

NYC

1976-04-12

43

25

34.0

-17.9

1976-04-18

96

70

83.0

29.0

What about April 2002, Chris?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, frankdp23 said:

For the 80s, did NYC just miss out on some storms?  I found this for Rutgers, and it looks like they actually averaged slightly more in the 80s than the 90s. For my own measurements (aided by RU until 1987), I had the 80s at 27.89 vs 27.02 for the 90s, so practically a wash.

I think NYC averaged under 20" of snow during the 80s.

 

[Gravity Wave]

Between the air temperature and the wind it was very uncomfortable being out and about in city today. I wish we could get more classic fall days (clear with highs in the 50s) but fall seems to be becoming increasingly abbreviated with all the AN Septembers and Octobers and BN Novembers.

[gravitylover]

51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think NYC averaged under 20" of snow during the 80s.

 

For the first half of the 80's when I still lived in Oceanside there was only one storm that really sticks out in my head, the others were pretty forgettable. Those were the years that put more than half of the ski areas in the region out of business because they couldn't invest in snowmaking. As you went further north it wasn't bad at all but below I90 was pretty terrible.

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

39 right  now

I love this weather

I root for some cold weather in winter because it's needed for snow, but I hate a cold blast like this in November. I would love to go outside for a run this evening, but it's too cold for running. So I'll use the exercise bike inside instead, which I don't like nearly as much as running. I don't know how someone can call this type of weather comfortable, but I guess some people like bundling up.

[bluewave]

NYC only missed the record low max by 3 degrees.

11/8	38 in 1886

MAXIMUM  41  1222 AM 57 -16