CIK62 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 8 degs. BN. Month to date is -0.7[50.8]. Should be near -4.9[44.7] by the 15th. EURO is down to just 1" of Snow on the 13th. 50* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 Larry Cosgrove issued his winter outlook on 10/31 on his Facebook page. You will need to scroll down to find it. Also, read his replies to the comments under his post for some more clarification. https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/6/2019 at 8:57 PM, frd said: I am sure you recall last year, looked great and was great but we hit the middle of December and poof, we lost a lot of the snow cover in the States and in Canada. Notice that dramatic decline in the graph around the second part of December. We would recover eventually, but not till mid Feb. ironic. Wonder if we are destined to the same outcome this year? You would have thought the snow cover might have aided in the delivery of cold air masses into the states, but alas it seems the ones who did benefit the most were the Northern Plains and Northern Maine. The cold November followed by a mild December has been a very persistent pattern this decade. So the snow extent charts are just reflecting this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: The cold November followed by a mild December has been a very persistent pattern this decade. So the snow extent charts are just reflecting this new regime Eh, that stinks and icing on the cake was reading Isotherm's winter forecast. If I didn't value his insights as much as I do I would throw his forecast aside. But, I can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: he cold November followed by a mild December has been a very persistent pattern this decade. So the snow extent charts are just reflecting this new regime Is the EPO loading pattern / low sea ice, other N Pac features forcing these colder Novembers since 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, frd said: Is the EPO loading pattern / low sea ice, other N Pac features forcing these colder Novembers since 2012? My guess is that it’s a combination of factors. We saw the historic and rapid warming of the entire Pacific basin in 2013. At the same time, the Arctic has continued to warm with large areas of open water lingering into the cold season. So the lower sea ice can work in tandem with the tropical forcing to produce repeating 500 mb patterns that get stuck for extended periods of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: Eh, that stinks and icing on the cake was reading Isotherm's winter forecast. If I didn't value his insights as much as I do I would throw his forecast aside. But, I can't. Does anyone know how Isotherm and Larry Cosgrove did last year with their predictions for last winter ? Were the relatively spot on or all over the place ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Does anyone know how Isotherm and Larry Cosgrove did last year with their predictions for last winter ? Were the relatively spot on or all over the place ? I don't follow Larry, but I can tell you Isotherm does have a good record at predicting the seasonal trends. His forecast for the next winter is anticipated by many every late Fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Does anyone know how Isotherm and Larry Cosgrove did last year with their predictions for last winter ? Were the relatively spot on or all over the place ? A lot of people didnt do well last season. Tom is a great forecaster but he failed just like many good ones last winter . The winter didnt turn out to be how they envisioned it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A lot of people didnt do well last season. Tom is a great forecaster but he failed just like many good ones last winter . The winter didnt turn out to be how they envisioned it. 88 that is exactly what I was thinking as I did not remember ANYONE coming remotely close to getting last year correct but I don't follow either of those guys closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, frd said: I don't follow Larry, but I can tell you Isotherm does have a good record at predicting the seasonal trends. His forecast for the next winter is anticipated by many every late Fall. Thanks,,,,,maybe someone can post either ISO or Larrys ( or both ) thoughts about next week and we can see if they have a really good handle on things ???????? otherwise I will search them out and try and see for myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 20 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Does anyone know how Isotherm and Larry Cosgrove did last year with their predictions for last winter ? Were the relatively spot on or all over the place ? 16 minutes ago, frd said: I don't follow Larry, but I can tell you Isotherm does have a good record at predicting the seasonal trends. His forecast for the next winter is anticipated by many every late Fall. 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A lot of people didnt do well last season. Tom is a great forecaster but he failed just like many good ones last winter . The winter didnt turn out to be how they envisioned it. Larry Cosgrove did OK last winter if I remember correctly. Once again I take seasonal outlooks with a grain of salt regardless of the persons reputation. I think there are to many out there who take these outlooks to gospel. Isotherm does put alot of time and energy into his seasonal outlooks but he can easily bust just like anyone else out there who does them. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 28 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Larry Cosgrove did OK last winter if I remember correctly. Once again I take seasonal outlooks with a grain of salt regardless of the persons reputation. I think there are to many out there who take these outlooks to gospel. Isotherm does put alot of time and energy into his seasonal outlooks but he can easily bust just like anyone else out there who does them. It's not an easy task at all trying to make a long term prediction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's not an easy task at all trying to make a long term prediction. 88, long term predictions are hard ? How about one of us try and figure out what is hell is going to happen short term / the 13th and 14th of next week ????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 88, long term predictions are hard ? How about one of us try and figure out what is hell is going to happen short term / the 13th and 14th of next week ????????? Long term forecast are a joke and hardly verify. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's not an easy task at all trying to make a long term prediction. I am certainly not saying it is. But if the meteorologists can't always get a seasonal outlook right then we can't expect a hobbyist who does them to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88, long term predictions are hard ? How about one of us try and figure out what is hell is going to happen short term / the 13th and 14th of next week ????????? Tricky forecast for next week. Hang tight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 It is easier to make long term temperature predictions than it is snowfall. You can have a much above normal temperature winter and then get one massive blizzard to be above average for a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Light snow for the entire area on the GFS Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 GFS coming in colder/snowier for next week's event. Without looking at snow maps it looks like a good hit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 ~.5" QPf all snow on GFS. Probably best case scenario. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: ~.5" QPf all snow on GFS. Probably best case scenario. Ukie also shifted east. Need the front to come in faster for us to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I think we're going to see one of the most radical two halves ever. 2nd half looks to be a blowtorch, early guidance like tonight's GFS already hinting at it. I agree. Patterns keep repeating and getting stuck. I would look for a major -PNA. I would be fairly confident to just lock in something similar to last winter. The big factor of wether this winter is a dud will be getting a period of NAO blocking. That was the difference between last years nightmare at the coast and 2018’s home run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Cmc is a nice hit for inland areas . A little too warm for the coast. Just need the front come through quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cmc is a nice hit for inland areas . A little too warm for the coast. Just need the front come through quicker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I agree. Patterns keep repeating and getting stuck. I would look for a major -PNA. I would be fairly confident to just lock in something similar to last winter. The big factor of wether this winter is a dud will be getting a period of NAO blocking. That was the difference between last years nightmare at the coast and 2018’s home run I don't see any warmup before the 21st just back to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Post more frames after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Post more frames after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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