Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Euro is a hugger. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Euro is a hugger. No bueno. Could just end up being an Arctic front too, long ways to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: We still get some snow. There are 2 lows. Long ways to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Even a T of snow would be impressive for November 12th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Cold and stormy euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 45 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We still get some snow. There are 2 lows. Long ways to go. Yes, first low is on the frontal boundary and the second is the one heading NE from the gulf which needs to amplify for us to see a snow event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 56 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even a T of snow would be impressive for November 12th. exactly-we all average anywhere from 0- to maybe an inch of snow for November....anything would be notable given the time of year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Next week looks like something straight out of January. Hard to believe it was in the 90’s just a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just an occasional T for NYC between 1987 and 2011 by November 15th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 15 to Nov 15 Missing Count 2018-11-15 6.4 0 2017-11-15 0.0 0 2016-11-15 0.0 0 2015-11-15 0.0 0 2014-11-15 T 0 2013-11-15 T 0 2012-11-15 4.7 0 2011-11-15 2.9 0 2010-11-15 T 0 2009-11-15 0.0 0 2008-11-15 0.0 0 2007-11-15 0.0 0 2006-11-15 0.0 0 2005-11-15 0.0 0 2004-11-15 T 0 2003-11-15 0.0 0 2002-11-15 T 0 2001-11-15 0.0 0 2000-11-15 T 0 1999-11-15 0.0 0 1998-11-15 0.0 0 1997-11-15 T 0 1996-11-15 T 0 1995-11-15 T 0 1994-11-15 0.0 0 1993-11-15 0.0 0 1992-11-15 0.0 0 1991-11-15 T 0 1990-11-15 0.0 0 1989-11-15 0.0 0 1988-11-15 0.0 0 1987-11-15 1.1 0 That was then. Early season snows are becoming increasingly common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 31 minutes ago, Cfa said: Next week looks like something straight out of January. Hard to believe it was in the 90’s just a few weeks ago. Several weeks ago eps right on benchmark for next weeks storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: There were 3 years this decade when NYC had more snow in October and November than December. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Season 2010 0.0 T 20.1 20.1 2011 2.9 0.0 0.0 2.9 2012 0.0 4.7 0.4 5.1 2013 0.0 T 8.6 8.6 2014 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 2015 0.0 0.0 T T 2016 0.0 T 3.2 3.2 2017 0.0 T 7.7 7.7 2018 0.0 6.4 T 6.4 2019 0.0 0.0 M 0.0 I remember 2000 and 2003 had big snowstorms in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Root for the lead wave to weaken faster so the second one can track closer to the benchmark. more of an anafront than a classic coastal low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 18z GFS is a disorganized mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Gfs has 3 lows for next week. This storm should be fun to track. Inland areas should do really well The coast is the tricky part. It would help if the front speeds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has 3 lows for next week. This storm should be fun to track. Inland areas should do really well The coast is the tricky part. It would help if the front speeds up. Temperatures aren't the issue, QPF is. Which is why Suffolk co. Does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has 3 lows for next week. This storm should be fun to track. Inland areas should do really well The coast is the tricky part. It would help if the front speeds up. Actually the front stalling would make this storm more amplified resulting in a more dynamic system otherwise we’ll have a rain to snow anafrontal 3 hours of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has 3 lows for next week. This storm should be fun to track. Inland areas should do really well The coast is the tricky part. It would help if the front speeds up. Needs to be a few hours earlier and we'd be golden. NYC stays subfreezing for 96+ hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Needs to be a few hours earlier and we'd be golden. NYC stays subfreezing for 96+ hours Do you see the cold after the storm ? Jeez You would think its January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 AO is in freefall mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Tied with last year for 2nd highest North America snow extent by November 5th. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Isotherms winter forecast out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 hours ago, bkviking said: Isotherms winter forecast out I had a feeling it wasn't going to look good. The IOD doesn't look impressive for us. Nor does the NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Tied with last year for 2nd highest North America snow extent by November 5th. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html I am sure you recall last year, looked great and was great but we hit the middle of December and poof, we lost a lot of the snow cover in the States and in Canada. Notice that dramatic decline in the graph around the second part of December. We would recover eventually, but not till mid Feb. ironic. Wonder if we are destined to the same outcome this year? You would have thought the snow cover might have aided in the delivery of cold air masses into the states, but alas it seems the ones who did benefit the most were the Northern Plains and Northern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 A cold front, which will likely see a storm develop along the frontal boundary, will bring the season's coldest air mass so far this season into the region later this week. This air mass could be sufficiently cold to bring New York City its first freeze of the season. An area running from northeastern Pennsylvania across the New York State border eastward into New England will likely see measurable snowfall Thursday night into Friday. A portion of this area, including Binghamton, has the potential to pick up 2"-4" of snow. A second and potentially larger storm could impact parts of the regon next week. In part, due to what will likely become a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation, the second half warmup will likely be gradual. Readings might not return to normal and then above normal until around November 20 +/- a few days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -6.81 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.889. On November 5, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.632 (RMM). The November 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.572. The 2.567 amplitude is the highest amplitude on record in November for the MJO's being in Phase 5. The previous record was 2.572, which was set yesterday. Prior to this year, it was 2.512 on November 24, 2002. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to warmer than normal conditions, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. The probability of such a warmup has increased according to some of the recent guidance. 80% of the cases that saw New York City record a mean temperature below 46.0° during the first half of November went on to see 20" or more seasonal snowfall. Almost one quarter of such winters saw 40" or more snow. This data would suggest 20"-30" seasonal snowfall for the New York City area absent other variables (some of which could increase or reduce such amounts). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 77% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 the best week leading up to Christmas has to be 1883...since 1945 the best pre Christmas week could be 1945 or 1948...more recently 1995 was very good... 2009.....max...min...LE...snow...depth 12/19.....30......21...0.61"...9.1"....9" 12/20.....34......21...0.13"...1.8"....8" 12/21.....36......28......0...…..0......7" 12/22.....36......23......0...…..0......6" 12/23.....30......20......0...…..0......5" 12/24.....39......24......0...…..0......3" 12/25.....38......33...0.24".....0...…1" ………………………...……………………... 2000 12/19.....41......28......0...…..0...…0 12/20.....36......25...0.07"...0.5"....T 12/21.....33......22......0...…..0......0 12/22.....32......17...0.01"...0.8"....1" 12/23.....30......14......0...…..0......T 12/24.....31......23......0...…..0......T 12/25.....27......15......0...…..0......0 ……………………………………………... 1995 12/19.....33......22...0.68"...5.5"....6" 12/20.....23......18...0.12"...2.2"....7" 12/21.....30......19......T...…..T......7" 12/22.....34......28...0.01"...0.1"....7" 12/23.....38......29......0...…..0......5" 12/24.....34......26......0...…..0......4" 12/25.....35......26......T...…..T......3" …………………………………………... 1983... 12/19.....34......21......0...…..0......0 12/20.....25......17......0...…..0......0 12/21.....32......14......T...…..T......T 12/22.....53......31...2.18"...0.6"....0 12/23.....41......22...0.02"...0.2"....T 12/24.....22...….6...0.07"...0.8"....1" 12/25.....13...….4......0...…..0......1" ………………………………………………. 1980 12/19.....41......17......0...…..0......0 12/20.....26......14......0...…..0......0 12/21.....27......16......0...…..0......0 12/22.....32......19......0...…..0......0 12/23.....34......29...0.16"...0.6"....1" 12/24.....37......20...0.10"...1.0"....1" 12/25.....20...…-1......0...…..0......1" ………………………………………………... 1975 12/19.....26......17......T...…..T...... 12/20.....41......22......T...…..T 12/21.....27......22......T...…..T 12/22.....32......24...0.18"...1.8"....2"" 12/23.....34......22......0...…..0......1" 12/24.....23......16......0...…..0......1" 12/25.....33......17...0.17...0.5".....1" …………………………………………………………. 1970 12/19.....50......33......0...…..0......0 12/20.....46......36......0...…..0......0 12/21.....36......30...0.05"...0.3"....T 12/22.....32......23...0.24'...1.8".....2" 12/23.....32......28...0.21".....T...…1" 12/24.....33......30...0.12".....0...…T 12/25.....32......29......0...…..0......T …………………………………………………………. 1966 12/19.....42......24......0...…..0......0 12/20.....37......24...0.20"......T......0 12/21.....34......28...0.15"...1.2"....T 12/22.....36......27......0...…..0......T 12/23.....31......26......0...…..0......T 12/24.....26......22...0.74"...6.7"....7" 12/25.....32......23...0.05"...0.4"....7" ………………………………………………………... 1963 12/19.....30......16......T...…..T......1" 12/20.....26......11......0...…..0......1" 12/21.....22......11......0...…..0......1" 12/22.....36......21......0...…..0......T 12/23.....32......28...0.60"...6.0"....6" 12/24.....36......25...0.08"...0.6"....6" 12/25.....39......33......0...…..0......4" …………………………………………………….. 1962 12/19.....41......37......0...…..0......0 12/20.....41......17......0...…..0......0 12/21.....28......10...0.16"...1.6"....2" 12/22.....37......28...0.38"...1.1"....1" 12/23.....39......31......T...…..T......1" 12/24.....34......24......0...…..0......T 12/25.....35......24...0.10"...0.3"....T ……………………………………………………………… 1961 12/19.....42......36...0.15".....0......0 12/20.....44......38......0...…..0......0 12/21.....41......32......0...…..0......0 12/22.....40......29......0...…..0......0 12/23.....37......26...0.23"...2.8"....3" 12/24.....33......25...0.35"...3.4"....6" 12/25.....36......22......0...…..0......5" ………………………………................. 1960 12/19.....34......24...0.11"...1.3"....7" 12/20.....34......21......0...…..0......7" 12/21.....49......25...1.29".....T......2" 12/22.....25......16......0...…..0......2" 12/23.....22...….9......0...…..0......2" 12/24.....32...….9......T...…..T......1" 12/25.....39......28......0...…..0......1" ………………………….................... 1959 12/19.....41......27......T...…..0......0 12/20.....33......25......0...…..0......0 12/21.....33......23...0.25"...3.4"....3" 12/22.....28......17...0.71" 10.3"....13" 12/23.....23...….9......0...…..0......12" 12/24.....31......18......0...…..0......8" 12/25.....39......30......T...…..0......4" ……………………………………............ 1955 12/19.....35......20...0.01"...0.1"....T 12/20.....20...…..6......0...…..0......0 12/21.....18...…..5......0...…..0......0 12/22.....22......12...0.15"...2.7"....3" 12/23.....26......15......0...…..0......2" 12/24.....40......26......T...…..0......T 12/25.....51......33......0...…..0......0 ……………………………………………………. 1948 12/19.....29......26...1.51" 15.8"....16" 12/20.....30......26...0.02"...0.2"....14" 12/21.....42......26......T...…..T......11" 12/22.....45......36......0...…..0......8" 12/23.....38......28......0...…..0......6" 12/24.....29......21......T...…..T......6" 12/25.....27......13......0...…..0......5" …………………………………………………... 1947 12/19.....32......21......0...…..0......0 12/20.....32......17......0...…..0...…0 12/21.....42......28......0...…..0......0 12/22.....42......32......0...…..0......0 12/23.....37......28...0.29"...2.5"....2" 12/24.....33......22......T...…..T......2" 12/25.....33......19......0...…..0......1" ……………………………………………………. 1945 12/19.....23......20...0.86"...8.0"....8" 12/20.....27......18...0.02"...0.3"....8" 12/21.....27......19......T...…..T......8" 12/22.....25......18...0.01"...0.1"....8" 12/23.....27......10......0...…..0......7" 12/24.....29......14......0...…..0......7" 12/25.....51......20...1.29".....0......2" …………………………………………………... 1919 12/19.....20......10...0.11"...1.9"....2" 12/20.....28......18......0...…..0......1" 12/21.....30......25......T...…..T......1" 12/22.....37......30......0...…..0......T 12/23.....44......29......0...…..0......T 12/24.....40......26...0.22"...2.7"....3" 12/25.....27......16...0.01"...0.1"....2" …………………………………………………….. 1904 12/19.....39......30......0...…..0......6" 12/20.....36......30......0...…..0......5" 12/21.....31......23......0...…..0......5" 12/22.....36......23......0...…..0......4" 12/23.....47......36...0.01".....0......1" 12/24.....46......22...0.01"...0.1"....T 12/25.....27......21...0.16"...3.0"....3" ………………………………………………………. 1884 12/19.....16...….-1......0...…..0......T 12/20...….7...…-3......0...…..0......T 12/21.....36...…..7...1.94"...4.0"....2" 12/22.....39......33...0.04"......0......1" 12/23.....38......24......0...…..0......T 12/24.....24......18...0.27"...3.5"....3" 12/25.....25......16......0...…..0......3" ……………………………………………………….. 1883 12/19.....37......23...0.60"...5.0"....5" 12/20.....24......21......0...…..0......5" 12/21.....29......21...0.35"...2.5"....7" 12/22.....25......10......0...…..0......7" 12/23.....10...….-1...0.01"...0.3"....7" 12/24.....31...…..7...0.80"...7.3"....14" 12/25.....31......28...0.38"...5.0"....18" …………………………………………………... 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Snowshack Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Wow that 1883 week was perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Based on the latest guidance, there is a growing chance that New York City will have a November 1-15 mean temperature below 44.0°. The last time that happened was November 1976 when New York City had a mean temperature of 42.1°. Since 1869, New York City has had only 11 cases where the November 1-15 temperature was below 44.0°. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Based on the latest guidance, there is a growing chance that New York City will have a November 1-15 mean temperature below 44.0°. The last time that happened was November 1976 when New York City had a mean temperature of 42.1°. Since 1869, New York City has had only 11 cases where the November 1-15 temperature was below 44.0°. I think we're going to see one of the most radical two halves ever. 2nd half looks to be a blowtorch, early guidance like tonight's GFS already hinting at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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