IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 52 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Sounds like last year. Closed the shades after the first weekend of December and never opened them back up. Hoping we don’t endure the same MJO madness this year. Broadly-speaking, seems like we are planting a fork in the road—one way leads toward a 2013-14-type our once and the other takes us toward 2018-19’s lair of doom. Is that somewhat accurate? If there are disruptions on the stratospheric and tropospheric levels of the PV up north through late December, then there should be a window of opportunity through mid January into mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 22 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: We cannot plant a fork in anything. Mother nature will do whatever she plans to do. We can cry, bitch, scream at the sky, drive an electric car, put a windmill on top of our house, etc, etc.. It's all meaningless. We have seen snow in bad patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We have seen snow in bad patterns Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Exactly. Remember feb 2006? That winter was horrendous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Generally light events though. Warning level snows in bad patterns are few and far between. 2-9-17 may be our only major snowstorm in a bad pattern this decade. 2/8/13 was pretty bad. That setup probably couldn’t have worked if it occurred 4-5 weeks earlier. It was just late enough in the season that it didn’t kick too far right. It was fairly close to April 1982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Pop up downpour out of nowhere for me on Staten Island. More like the day before July 4th rather than the day before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 22 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: Pop up downpour out of nowhere for me on Staten Island. More like the day before July 4th rather than the day before Thanksgiving. have seen 2 of these in bed-stuy...some cold ass raindrops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: Although I missed the jackpot with with that February blizzard, we did have an actual -AO/-NAO pattern. We just got an assist from the block near Newfoundland for the phase. My 2nd favorite storm of all time and I missed the jackpot by 10 miles (got 22 instead of 35). The storm was FLYING NE before the western system merged and expended the precip shield, I believe it also caused the low to "wobble" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Pop up downpour here too. I think I can hear thunder in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 10 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Pop up downpour here too. I think I can hear thunder in the distance. Quite a bit of lightning to your northeast. These storms based around 700mb have some of the strangest-sounding thunder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: 2/8/13 was pretty bad. That setup probably couldn’t have worked if it occurred 4-5 weeks earlier. It was just late enough in the season that it didn’t kick too far right. It was fairly close to April 1982 Winter 2012-2013 was a good year here. Received 67" of snow that year. That's what I measured. I'm sure the total was probably a bit higher, but I work down below, so I'm not home all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 34 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Pop up downpour here too. I think I can hear thunder in the distance. Some of the cells crossing the Sound had small hail or graupel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Have some lightning and thunder of the house shaking variety in wading river. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Quite a bit of lightning to your northeast. These storms based around 700mb have some of the strangest-sounding thunder. Yeah, you're right!! It does sound strange. I wasn't sure if that's what it even was when I first heard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: 2/8/13 was pretty bad. That setup probably couldn’t have worked if it occurred 4-5 weeks earlier. It was just late enough in the season that it didn’t kick too far right. It was fairly close to April 1982 April 1982 was much colder (especially for the time of year.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 56 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: My 2nd favorite storm of all time and I missed the jackpot by 10 miles (got 22 instead of 35). The storm was FLYING NE before the western system merged and expended the precip shield, I believe it also caused the low to "wobble" My favorite storm of all time (no secret here) is Jan 2016. I love large long duration storms that have a large area of 20 and 30 plus inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: My favorite storm of all time (no secret here) is Jan 2016. I love large long duration storms that have a large area of 20 and 30 plus inches of snow. Mine was 1996. 27 inch long duration megalopolis storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Mine was 1996. 27 inch long duration megalopolis storm. Yes the two day storm! For some reason during the day it didn't seem to be snowing so hard. We got most of ours at night. And on the second day it ended earlier than I expected- Philly got hit harder than we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 59/38 temp split today with just a trace of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Pacific Jet and pattern continues to set new records. Yikes. Good for them but lousy to say the least for getting sustained cold and hopes for snow in the East at least near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Eps is coming in colder for the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 About 40 percent of the eps members give the area a few inches. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Despite clouds and some widely scattered showers, temperatures again rose into the upper 50s and lower 60s in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. In the wake of a cold front, tomorrow will turn partly sunny, cooler with strong winds that could gust past 40 mph in much of the region. Some areas could experience gusts near 50 mph. Wind advisories may need to be extended to the New York City Metro Area tomorrow. In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is concluding its warmest autumn on record with what will likely be its second warmest November on record. Based on the latest guidance, Utqiagvik will likely have a September-November mean temperature ranging from 28.4°-28.6°. The current record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -7.26 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.754. Daily MJO data was unavailable for November 26. Outgoing long-wave radiation is currently unavailable according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The BOM is working on the issue. Based on the consistently-modeled idea of a negative to strongly negative EPO (-2.000 to -1.000) to begin December, the first 7 days of December will likely average colder than normal in much of the eastern third to eastern half of the CONUS and southern Canada. However, the EPO will likely go positive and the AO could go strongly positive during the first week of December. As a result, warmer conditions will likely return after the first week in December. At present, the warmth does not appear to be too impressive. Transient shots of cooler air will remain possible. As a milder pattern develops in the CONUS, Europe will likely see the cold give way to the pattern that has predominated in November where Scandinavia is colder than normal while much of Europe is warmer than normal. Overall, the base case remains a somewhat warmer than normal December as a whole, though New England and the Great Lakes region could still wind up cooler than normal. Should the AO have a sustained period of strongly positive levels, the risk of greater warmth than described above would increase. With December likely to get off to a cool start, the potential for at least some snowfall in the Philadelphia to Boston area could exist. The first such opportunity could occur during the December 1-3 timeframe. Although the season's first measurable snowfall is possible in New York City and Newark, amounts will likely be minor. When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.1°. That would make this November the coldest November since 2012 when the monthly mean temperature was 43.9°. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 9 hours ago, jm1220 said: Yikes. Good for them but lousy to say the least for getting sustained cold and hopes for snow in the East at least near the coast. It could have worked out differently last winter had the storm track been more favorable. I think we toss December this year but after that cash in. We have seen a much more coastal storm track this year. With the locking nature of patterns what was miss after miss last winter easily could have been hit after hit. Is it going to be a legendary winter like 95/96, most likely not, but not a rater either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 The last three days of November are averaging 42degs., or about 2degs. BN.(used 55/41 for today) Month to date is -3.8[44.8]. November should end near -3.5[44.2]. 47* here at 6am. 46* at 7am. Back to 47* at 8am. 51* by 11am. 48* by 2pm. 42* by 6pm. 39* by 9pm. GFS is 0", EURO is 2", CMC is 6"( after a string of 0"s)[Too bad this event isn't a hurricane], Cobb Method is all Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Can everyone STOP saying December is done on Nov 27? How freaking ridiculous! Many of you called for a warm November. You would think you would learn! Take a chill pill and stop pretending you can predict wx with accuracy 30 days out. You cant. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Howling winds over here this morning, gusty. Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 Happy Thanksgiving to all! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Overall, with last night's runs, I think Newark and New York City and their immediate suburbs remain on track for their first measurable snowfall of the season (likely a minor accumulation). A few individual EPS members are big hits (10" or more). The Hudson Valley, northwest New Jersey/northeastern Pennsylvania, and southeastern New York (e.g., Sullivan County) should do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Looks like this may be one of our windier Thanksgivings since 1971. White Plains gusting to 40 mph now. Should see more widespread gusts over 40 later this morning into the afternoon with the steepening low level lapse rates. Enjoy your Thanksgiving. It will be much milder than the near record cold last year. White Plains MOCLDY 44 32 62 NW30G40 29 2018 11/22 28 17 0.00 4th coldest high, 2nd coldest low for Thanksgiving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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