November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

Just now, uncle W said:

that's not happening with an ao as high as forecast...

I still think the overall idea that December will finish somewhat warmer than normal despite a cold start. But we’ll see how the teleconnections are evolving as we get closer. Lately, the extended range of such forecasts has fared badly.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Don,

I see the progression similarities to last year, however the MJO forecasts last year showed the progression to the warm phases while this year has it looping back to the cold phases. Couldn't this year be different? Are all the background enso and stratospheric the same as last year? I am trying to learn why Bluewave and all believe we are going to follow last year to a t?

Many thanks

 

Most of the past cases with high amplitude MJO passages through Phases 6, 7, 8 in November eventually reached the warmer phases in December. Long-range MJO forecasting skill isn’t great. Compounding things, there remains a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole. I think there will be greater clarity in about a week.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Most of the past cases with high amplitude MJO passages through Phases 6, 7, 8 in November eventually reached the warmer phases in December. Long-range MJO forecasting skill isn’t great. Compounding things, there remains a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole. I think there will be greater clarity in about a week.

Thanks Don,

The interesting part of last year was early December. If that southern slider moved north and dropped 8 we would have had an average snowfall winter with all the dispair, then looking back in the record books last year would have not called attention as a sub par winter. 

This year looks suppressive again, however we may have better luck when the NAO transitionions from negative to positive.

[SnoSki14]

47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I still think the overall idea that December will finish somewhat warmer than normal despite a cold start. But we’ll see how the teleconnections are evolving as we get closer. Lately, the extended range of such forecasts has fared badly.

That's an understatement. I've seen models go from strong Atlantic blocking to troughing over a few short runs and then back again. 

Not too long ago models had eastern ridging end of November and early December before the strong 50/50 type low showed up. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

that's not happening with an ao as high as forecast...

Those forecasts could easily flip back.  I don’t trust those things beyond 7 days 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Yes, that is true. But, it is uncanny how similar to last December we look to evolve,  but there are other players around that could throw a monkey wrench in the way December eventually plays out. 

I know some are using the MJO progression, and the standing wave, as way to maintain the warmer phases, Some are calling for the HL to become less favorable as well. Still seeing  the pesky High North of Hawaii. If it were not for the - EPO we would be in trouble even faster . At least the -NAO helps us for a bit before it weakens.     

So hard for Decembers to work out in our favor if you love snow and cold, been that way for a long time. 

Even with the record +IOD, the forcing pattern this November was very similar to last. Notice the split forcing west of the dateline and over  Africa. If this same forcing regime continues, then it would support a milder pattern after December 10th. It’s interesting how the same forcing can produce a cold November and mild December. But we’ll check back in early December to see if anything changes.

 

[frd]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even with the record +IOD, the forcing pattern this November was very similar to last. Notice the split forcing west of the dateline and over  Africa. If this same forcing regime continues, then it would support a milder pattern after December 10th. It’s interesting how the same forcing can produce a cold November and mild December. But we’ll check back in early December to see if anything changes.

There does seem to be some changes this year in the far Eastern Atlantic and the far North, but you are correct the forcing pattern is very similar. 

Is is true we are still suffering from a lack of coupling, or it that becoming a mute point with the meager Nino.  

It also seems we are losing the Modoki SST pattern in the Pac as well,  the East region warms 1.2 , and the West region might be cooling soon.  Also, seeing some changes too regarding the sub surface SSTs in region 1.2    (   Do  you concur with this ? ) 

 

[EastonSN+]

[bluewave]

Stormy pattern coming up. We are seeing a continuation of the supercharged Pacific Jet of recent years. First storm on Sunday followed by another on Wednesday. Strong winds may be an issue for the Thanksgiving parade balloons as the low stalls east of New England.

5+ SD Pacific jet max over Alaska Thursday

[CIK62]

Cross Section Winds on TG morning:       Manhattan is at bottom, center.    30kts. average, with I suppose 40kts,+ gusts, if there is good mixing.       And don't forget streamlining effects on air blowing through the side streets, as parade goes  N---S.      So maybe this will be problematic.               courtesy AccuWeather.

[purduewx80]

5 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Cross Section Winds on TG morning:       Manhattan is at bottom, center.    30kts. average, with I suppose 40kts,+ gusts, if there is good mixing.       And don't forget streamlining effects on air blowing through the side streets, as parade goes  N---S.      So maybe this will be problematic.               courtesy AccuWeather.

BUFKIT suggests 40-45KT gusts (LGA below):

[donsutherland1]

A moderate to significant rainfall will affect the big cities of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas late tonight into tomorrow. Cities such as New York, Newark, Providence, and Boston will likely pick up 0.50"-1.50" precipitation with some locally higher amounts near 2.00".

In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is now concluding its warmest autumn on record. Based on the latest guidance, Utqiagvik will likely have a September-November mean temperature ranging from 28.0°-28.5°. The current record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -4.08 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.723.

Daily MJO data was unavailable for November 22.

Even as the recent MJO progression through Phases 6, 7 and into 8 at high amplitude has typically preceded a mild December, there remains uncertainty concerning the longer-term evolution of the teleconnections. However, recent runs of the GEFS, ECMWF, and EPS all suggest that the AO could go positive during the first week in December.

Based on the consistently-modeled idea of a negative to strongly negative EPO (-2.000 to -1.000) to begin December, at least the first 7-10 days of December will likely be colder than normal in much of the eastern third to eastern half of the CONUS and southern Canada. Warmer conditions could return should Atlantic blocking dissipate. Unseasonable warmth will likely prevail in much of Alaska, including areas that will see their warmest autumn on record.

With December likely to get off to a cold start, the potential for at least some snowfall in the Philadelphia to Boston area could exist. The first such opportunity could exist during the December 1-3 timeframe.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 99% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 will likely be the coldest November since 1996 when the monthly mean temperature was 43.0°.

[wthrmn654]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Cross Section Winds on TG morning:       Manhattan is at bottom, center.    30kts. average, with I suppose 40kts,+ gusts, if there is good mixing.       And don't forget streamlining effects on air blowing through the side streets, as parade goes  N---S.      So maybe this will be problematic.               courtesy AccuWeather.

Very hard to say.  Depending where you look website wise, or models,  some show higher sustained, others show lower sustained.  Either way it will be breezy with a chance of a runaway balloon lol

[SRRTA22]

I feel like it's kind of sleeting outside. I'm outside and it def has that sound. I doubt it though

Edit: It's defitnitly rain/sleet mix right now. Sleet bouncing off the car. Nice! Location Jersey City, nj

[BxEngine]

46 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

I feel like it's kind of sleeting outside. I'm outside and it def has that sound. I doubt it though

Edit: It's defitnitly rain/sleet mix right now. Sleet bouncing off the car. Nice! Location Jersey City, nj

Graupel flizzard right now up here too. 

[the_other_guy]

Sleet and 39F

 

I wasn’t expecting that

[Morris]

Sleet and 41f in Spring Valley. 

[donsutherland1]

At 10 pm, areas of light rain were moving through the region from the south and west. Areas of moderate to heavy rain were located over Virginia and the Carolinas. As the approaching system strengthens and tracks through the region tomorrow, the areas of rain will likely consolidate.

By the time the rain ends, much of the region will see 0.50" to 1.50" rain. Some locally higher amounts near or just above 2.00" are possible.

Ahead of the storm, New York City had picked up 44.97" precipitation (72nd highest annual amount) and Newark had seen 51.32" (14th highest annual amount).

Rankings for New York City and Newark for select precipitation amounts are below:

[SI Mailman]

2 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

I feel like it's kind of sleeting outside. I'm outside and it def has that sound. I doubt it though

Edit: It's defitnitly rain/sleet mix right now. Sleet bouncing off the car. Nice! Location Jersey City, nj

Yep. I heard sleet too around 7:45 when I was parking the mail truck by the Outerbridge. 

[doncat]

41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 10 pm, areas of light rain were moving through the region from the south and west. Areas of moderate to heavy rain were located over Virginia and the Carolinas. As the approaching system strengthens and tracks through the region tomorrow, the areas of rain will likely consolidate.

By the time the rain ends, much of the region will see 0.50" to 1.50" rain. Some locally higher amounts near or just above 2.00" are possible.

Ahead of the storm, New York City had picked up 44.97" precipitation (72nd highest annual amount) and Newark had seen 51.32" (14th highest annual amount).

Rankings for New York City and Newark for select precipitation amounts are below:

53.38" precipitation at my station ytd.

[Cfa]

43.53” YTD here.

[CIK62]

Last 7 days of November are averaging  46.5degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is   -5.2[43.6].         November should end at  -3.3[44.4], same as last November, but with a warm ending, instead of a warm start.

45* here at 6am.    47* at 7am.     Down to 43* by 11am, rain heavier.

The period near Dec. 05, has some part of every one of the 48 states, with at least a 50% chance of reaching a 32* low.     Florida is exempted along with southern Texas.

[JerseyWx]

36 and approaching an inch of rain since midnight.

[bluewave]

You know the Pacific Jet is on steroids when we get 3 bowling balls cross the country in 7-8 days. 
 

 

[doncat]

0.60" here, some more rain to rotate thru but not as much as forecasted for some spots.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Drizzle on the uws. Haven’t had any sleet and I have been outside working all morning. With the stronger winds later today it’s going to be a leaf blizzard here with oaks finally in full drop mode  

[EastonSN+]

Hopefully just a blip.

[purduewx80]

Low pressure coming ashore in the West late Tuesday has the potential to break November pressure records out there.

[LVwhiteout]

Rain & snow mix. 37 degrees

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

You know the Pacific Jet is on steroids when we get 3 bowling balls cross the country in 7-8 days. 
 

 

So all we need is to drop them 500 miles or so south and we're good to go. See what ya can do about that would ya please