MJO812 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 2:06 PM, bluewave said: The 12z NAM has the first T of the season at the local airports on Tuesday. Expand More expansive of the precip on the west side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 2:10 PM, bluewave said: Maybe some lucky spots can get a .01 special on the cartops or grass. Expand Flurries would be a win =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I love how this board hyped up 2 snowstorms for the whole month: one rain; one flurries Gonna be a long winter on here...and not because or the weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 2:17 PM, jfklganyc said: I love how this board hyped up 2 snowstorms for the whole month: one rain; one flurries Gonna be a long winter on here...and not because or the weather! Expand people latch onto models outside their range. The solutions shown 3-4 days ago are nothing like what will actually verify-a cold frontal passage with some rain showers that may end with a mangled flake or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 2:14 PM, Snow88 said: Flurries would be a win =) Expand Picking up at least a T by November 15th has been common this decade. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Nov 15 Missing Count 1 2018-11-15 6.4 0 2 2017-11-15 T 0 3 2016-11-15 0.0 0 - 2015-11-15 0.0 0 5 2014-11-15 T 0 - 2013-11-15 T 0 7 2012-11-15 6.2 0 8 2011-11-15 5.2 0 9 2010-11-15 T 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 2:17 PM, jfklganyc said: I love how this board hyped up 2 snowstorms for the whole month: one rain; one flurries Gonna be a long winter on here...and not because or the weather! Expand Yup. Same people have been doing this for 15 years on these boards, its incredible that they never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Nam has about an inch for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Nao, AO and PNA look good moving forward on the cpc site. Hopefully they continue to look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 2:36 PM, Snow88 said: Nam has about an inch for the city Expand Not even close to that. Stop exaggerating. 3k nam has 0.2 for the city. But it will be 39 degrees or so when the precip moves through so I doubt it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 2:36 PM, Snow88 said: Nam has about an inch for the city Expand there's barely .10 of QPF (which is mainly rain) it's going to be near 60 today would be hard for anything to stick with light rates.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 59 already, forecast high of 60 will likely bust low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 2:50 PM, Brian5671 said: there's barely .10 of QPF (which is mainly rain) it's going to be near 60 today would be hard for anything to stick with light rates.... Expand It's certainly possible if the cold air comes rushing in with a few hours to go. Flash freezes can cause some accumulations but I'm not expecting anything here. I do think everyone will see a change to snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 3:00 PM, Snow88 said: It's certainly possible if the cold air comes rushing in with a few hours to go. Flash freezes can cause some accumulations but I'm not expecting anything here. I do think everyone will see a change to snow . Expand But none of the models show NYC getting an inch. Be realistic or this is going to be a painfully long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 3:00 PM, Snow88 said: It's certainly possible if the cold air comes rushing in with a few hours to go. Flash freezes can cause some accumulations but I'm not expecting anything here. I do think everyone will see a change to snow . Expand Stop man. Its going to be 45 degrees in the morning. It's not going to happen. This is a fast moving cold front. You will be lucky to get flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 3:04 PM, psv88 said: Stop man. Its going to be 45 degrees in the morning. It's not going to happen. This is a fast moving cold front. You will be lucky to get flurries Expand Okay we shall see Are you even looking at the models? Before telling me to stop , check the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 The NAM has a 20 + degree temperature drop for Long Island in just 6 hrs on Tuesday. Early morning 50’s to low 30’s by mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 2:22 PM, Brian5671 said: people latch onto models outside their range. The solutions shown 3-4 days ago are nothing like what will actually verify-a cold frontal passage with some rain showers that may end with a mangled flake or two. Expand The only way you do well in this setup is if there is more negative tilt to the trof/front as it crosses or if a surface low forms along the boundary as its pushing offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 3:07 PM, Snow88 said: Okay we shall see Are you even looking at the models? Before telling me to stop , check the models. Expand That’s all you look at brotha. And that’s why you chase ghosts every winter. Pick the model that you like best and run with it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 there is a chance we see a few flakes from lake effect than the front itself...either way I don't expect any accumulations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 3:30 PM, psv88 said: That’s all you look at brotha. And that’s why you chase ghosts every winter. Pick the model that you like best and run with it right? Expand What ? I look at every model like others do ( maybe not people on here but other forums ) I'm shocked not alot of people are talking about their possible 1st flakes like other forums are doing. You woke up on the wrong side of the bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Going to be a very long Winter with all this bickering in early November. We are not meteorologist we are here to discuss possible out comes of potential weather events why knock someone if they are going with Snow or Vice versa.? Let’s discuss and see how things play out. Every year it’s the same thing. Bickering on who knows what’s going to happen definitely. If that’s the case please for the love of God, give me some winning lottery numbers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 3:44 PM, BlizzardNYC said: Going to be a very long Winter with all this bickering in early November. We are not meteorologist we are here to discuss possible out comes of potential weather events why knock someone if they are going with Snow or Vice versa.? Let’s discuss and see how things play out. Every year it’s the same thing. Bickering on who knows what’s going to happen definitely. If that’s the case please for the love of God, give me some winning lottery numbers.. Expand This is during the snowiest decade of all time for parts of the region. Imagine what the weather forums would have been like from 79/80-91/92.We can also add 96/97 -01/02 to the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 4:06 PM, bluewave said: This is during the snowiest decade of all time for parts of the region. Imagine what the weather forums would have been like from 79/80-91/92.We can also add 96/97 -01/02 to the list. Expand Snow greed! the more you have - the more you want! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 4:06 PM, bluewave said: This is during the snowiest decade of all time for parts of the region. Imagine what the weather forums would have been like from 79/80-91/92.We can also add 96/97 -01/02 to the list. Expand mass weenie suicides....although we would expect nothing so a 2 inch snowfall would be seen as a big win...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 It's official. NYC Sanitation has issued a "snow alert" for tomorrow for a coating of snow DSNY Issues ‘Snow Alert’ for Tuesday, November 12, 2019 at 10 a.m. The New York City Department of Sanitation has issued a Snow Alert for Tuesday, November 12, 2019 at 10 a.m. In a snow alert, DSNY coordinates with NYC Emergency Management and the Department of Transportation on snow clearing protocol in accordance with each agency’s written snow plan. All relevant city agencies have been notified of the snow alert. DSNY will continue to monitor forecasts and will provide updates as the snow event approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 There was a very similar event back in the late 90s. Mid November powerful cold front that brought a brief but heavy burst of snow. Despite the crashing temps and heavy snow, it did not stick at all do to warm ground temps. Thats exactly what I would go for with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Are you talking about Thanksgiving Eve? Maybe 1994? Went on to be a mild winter if I recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 4:49 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There was a very similar event back in the late 90s. Mid November powerful cold front that brought a brief but heavy burst of snow. Despite the crashing temps and heavy snow, it did not stick at all do to warm ground temps. Thats exactly what I would go for with this event. Expand Heavy burst of snow is not likely, most won’t even see the possible change to snow. There is nothing here that supports an anafront Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 5:07 PM, qg_omega said: Heavy burst of snow is not likely, most won’t even see the possible change to snow. There is nothing here that supports an anafront Expand There will be a thin line with the actual arctic front that has an enhanced area of precip. That area will have rates intense enough to get snow down to the surface even at the coast. Of course like the event I mentioned there isn’t a shot in hell of it accumulating at the coast as it will be falling with temps around 40 and warm ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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